Sports such as:
Competitive online gaming (E-Sports)
The rating system is used to calculate the relative skill level of a player or the strength of a team.
Knowing how strong a team is going into a match, will give you a better understanding of who has the edge over their opponent and gives you a leg up on the bookie.
And today I want to show you how I use the Elo Ratings System to make better and more informed soccer bets, so we can both profit from this month’s FIFA World Cup.
Let’s get to it…
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The origins of the Elo Rating System
Arpad Elo was not only a physics professor at Marquette University, but a master chess player.
Winning the Wisconsin State Championship, eight times!
However, back in the 1930’s the United States Chess Federation (USCF) used the Harkness Rating System. Created by a Scottish businessman, Kenneth Harkness.
But, Professor Elo saw a flaw in this system.
You see, the flaw was that certain players were entering low-level tournaments and raking up wins to improve their ratings, while others were playing in high-level tournaments and leaving with lower ratings than their opponents.
So, Professor Elo created a system that would be based on stats, rather than results.
The Elo Ratings system was so successful that the USCF adopted it in 1960, and soon after the World Chess Federation implemented it in 1970.
Elo Ratings System in a nutshell
When two teams play each other, the winning side will take points from the losing side.
If a strong team plays a much weaker opponent and loses, the rating will reduce a lot more than if the stronger team played only a slightly weaker team.
With the exact number of points determined by the Elo difference between the two teams.
The Elo difference is a complex mathematical calculation used to determine the amount of points each team will forfeit.
It looks something like this:
Don’t worry, you don’t need a degree in mathematics to get the benefit of this system.
Here’s an example with basic math using 5% as our Elo difference.
Liverpool have an Elo rating of 2074, while Southampton has an Elo rating of 1861.
By calculating 5% of their ratings, Liverpool will be risking 104 points while Southampton will only be risking 93 points.
With the total points risked being: 104 + 93=197points.
So here are the three possible outcomes, since soccer has win, lose and draw.
Liverpool wins, meaning their rating increase by 93 to 2167 (93 being the points Southampton forfeits since they lost), while Southampton’s decreases to 1768.
Southampton wins, meaning their rating increase by 104 to 1965 (104 being the points Liverpool forfeits since they lost) and Liverpool’s rating decreases to 1970.
If there is a draw the 197 points is divided equally (197/2=98.5) between the two teams resulting in Southampton slightly increasing to 1866.5 and Liverpool slightly decreasing to 2068.5.
This is how the Elo Ratings System works in a nutshell.
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Applying the Elo Ratings System to soccer betting
Looking at the Elo Ratings table, according to clubelo.com.
The ratings are as follows:
If you use these ratings, you can observe two evenly matched teams, and identify if the bookie has overvalued a particular team.
Once you have identified where the value lies you can beat the bookie at their own game.
Alternatively, you can join us as we aim to beat the bookie during the FIFA World Cup.
Until next time,