How to profit in the under/over soccer betting market

by , 10 August 2017
How to profit in the under/over soccer betting market
When it comes to soccer, scoring is far less frequent than in other sports.

With short tournaments and knockout stages, some games can be extremely difficult to predict the winner.

But that's where we turn to other markets the bookies so kindly offer.

It's called the Under/Over markets.

This is where you bet on the amount of goals scored over the full time of the game.

Today, I'll share a step-by-step guide on how to calculate the probabilities of an expected number of goals scored and how to convert them into your own odds to beat the bookies.

Let's get to it…
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Step 1 – A simple way to find the average number of goals per game
The first step is simple, calculate the average number of goals scored per game.
This is easy…
The Average Goals Scored Per Game=Goals Scored / Games Played
Let’s look at Chelsea’s 2016/2017 season.
Chelsea’s Average Goals Scored Per Game=85 / 38
=2.24 goals per game.
Here is the full table of all the English Premier League teams for the season 2016/2017.

Now you have the full table, you can easily see which side, based on average scores, has the most goals scored per game.
Step 2 – Determine the probabilities
Since it is very difficult to predict the goal outcome for any soccer game, we use Poisson Distribution as a simple predictive model.
Here is just a simple example of how you can use Poisson Distribution to calculate the probabilities of a team scoring 0, 1, 2, 3, 4 or more goals using the average number of goals per game.

Determining the probabilities for under 2.5 goals is easy with the above table.
As an example, we will use a team with an average number of goals of 1.2 playing another team with an average number of goals of 0.8.
However, you will need to determine the probabilities for the exact score first. I have done this for you in the table below.

As you can see, adding all the probabilities together will give you your final probability for an under 2.5 goal bet.
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Step 3 – Are the odds worth it?
If we take the above probability of 67.56% this will correspond to a bet with the value of:
With a probability of 67.56% the odds of the bet will have to be 1.48 in order for it to have value any lower and there is no point in betting.
So will looking for a bookie offering odds of 1.48 or higher prove this formula guarantees winners?
No, this is just one aspect of determining an Under/Over bet.
Together with the maths and fundamentals, you will get a much better picture when betting on the Under/Over.
This is the first step on how to use under/over betting to guarantee winners. There are two more ‘criteria’  you need to understand, and once you have all these tricks you are almost guaranteed to accurately predict winners. 
Watch out for my articles on these two steps over the next few weeks…
Until next time,
Christopher Ammon

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