Rand stages a comeback rally - take advantage of it!

by , 27 September 2018
Rand stages a comeback rally - take advantage of it!
The rand has been buoyed by tighter monetary policy in Turkey, Russia and Argentina. Our local inflation data assisted in the strength even though the Reserve banks held rates on Thursday.

The Rand has gained over R1.30 against the Euro, USD and GBP in the past three weeks.

Investors tend to panic and run for the exit all at once, at the expense of externalising funds at the worst rate compared to investors who take a tactile and measured approach.
 
Investors looking to increase their offshore exposure should do so while the Rand is getting stronger. Rand strength is coming against resistance from a technical perspective, but we could see a short-lived move stronger over the coming weeks.
 
As election campaigning gains traction, expect political parties to ‘Up the Ante’ with calls to nationalise more, expropriate more and redistribute more. This will cause gradual weakness to previous levels.

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The week ahead:
  • Local Data:  CPI (19/09); Civil Cases for Debt, Private Sector Building Stats (20/09)
  • Results Due: ECS, MAP (18/09); COM, ELR, PAN (19/09); JSC, REM (20/09); AEY, GTR (21/09)
  • LDT (18/09): ABG, ADI, ACG, BEL, BID, BVT, CPIP, CSB, CLI, EXX, FFA, FFB, GNDP, GRT, HET, KAP, NRP, OMU, PGFP, CFR, SNT, TFGP
  • Special Dividend (18/09): OMU
 
Other Economic data releases of interest…
 
  • Tuesday: Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (AUS); ECB President Draghi Speaks (EU)
  • Wednesday: Monetary Policy Statement, BOJ Press Conference (JP); CPI (UK); ECB President Draghi Speaks (UK); Crude Oil Inventories (USA)
  • Thursday: GDP (NZL); Retail Sale (UK); SNB Monetary Policy Assessment (CH)
  • Friday: CPI, Core Retail Sales (CAN)
 
Short Term Ideas
  • Goldfields: Strong support at R34.00. Long below R35.25, hold for a move back above R40. Target it R43.75 with stop loss of R32.55.
 
Long Term Ideas
  • Remgro: Buy below R210 for a run to R250. Results due today.
  • Discovery: Resistance at R178 gaining strength. Keep stop loss at R160.00.
  • Coronation: Buy below R60.00 for a move back to R80
  • Dischem: Up 16.2%, target and stop loss remained at R36.50 and R32.00. Hold
  • Shoprite: A break above R200 is needed to curb further declines. Hold.
  • Aspen: Results disappointed market, share price under pressure. Hold
  • Sygnia: Support building above R10.00. Add
  • MTN: Bottoming out above R70, buy below R75.00.
  • Glencore: Open gain 16.6%. Hold
  • Naspers: Listing of Video business to unlock value. Accumulate below R3,200.


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Rand stages a comeback rally - take advantage of it!
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