Critique player performance
Analyse the flow of the game and
Evaluate how the manager influences his players
The thing is, it’s useless if you don’t know how to use this information.
Here’s what I mean…
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Looking at the first goal scored
Before you can even start analysing player performance, or how the manager is flaring up in the side box, you have to consider the first goal scored.
With soccer having such a low scoring nature, the first goal is crucial to evaluating whether a team will come back or lose.
And the real question you have to ask is…
What is the probability of a team winning after the first goal is scored?
Now here’s the interesting thing I discovered when analysing the last six seasons of the English Premier League.
I found the team that scored the first goal won the match 64% of the time!
While 22% of the matches ended in a draw and 14% lost.
This shows us the undeniable power the first goal has on the opposing team.
Now I know not all teams are equal, that’s why we have a table of the English Premier League teams ranging from 1 to 20.
So, I’ve broken the table into five groups based on the strength of the teams.
As you can see from the table, the teams that finished in the top four won their game after scoring the first goal, 80% of the time.
While the bottom four teams only won their game 51% of the time after scoring the first goal.
Now let’s flip this on its head and look at the probability of the team winning who conceded the goal….
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What is the probability of a team winning after conceding the first goal?
This is obviously just flipping the previous graph to show you how likely a team is to win after conceding the first goal.
A large majority of the outcomes match up pretty close when flipping the graph.
The bottom four team’s only win 6% of the time when conceding the first goal.
While the top four teams win 28% of the time after conceding the first goal.
This kind of information is invaluable during the English Premier League season and with the FIFA World Cup one week away, I’ve already locked in my first four game winners!
The first game kicks off next Thursday as the host nation, Russia face Saudia Arabia.
Who will come out on top?
Until next time,