The most debated staking method I've come across - Here's what you need to know

by , 02 August 2018
The most debated staking method I've come across - Here's what you need to know
Most of you know the basic staking methods I have recommended novice sports bettors use.

Staking methods like the:

• Fixed staking method and;
• Percentage staking method

These are easy to understand, and allow for mistakes, without wiping out your entire bankroll.

However, over the last couple of years, the Kelly Criterion has become the most accepted and useful staking method for advanced sports bettors.

Today, I want to go over this in detail, and show you how you can use it to grow your bankroll.

Let's get started.
          
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Staking methods for novice sports bettors
 
Before we get into the more complicated staking method,let’s recap on the simpler staking methods I mentioned earlier…
 
A fixed staking method is where you place a fixed amount on each bet. It never changes.
 
I.e. if your fixed stake is R250. Every bet will be R250 per bet.
 
The percentage staking method is when you calculate your stake based on a chosen percentage.
 
I.e. 5% of a R10,000 bankroll, would mean:
 
0.05 x R10,000=R500
 
These are the two easiest staking methods I recommend to novice sports bettors.
 
Now let’s get into the Kelly Criterion
 
Who and what is the Kelly Criterion?
 
J.L Kelly created the Kelly Criterion in 1956. A scientist working at Bell Labs at the time.
 
The Kelly Criterion is a simple mathematical formula, used to work out the optimal amount to bet by working out the expected level of return from a bet.
 
The greater the expected probability of the win, the higher the stake amount, that way you maximise your return.
 
In essence, the Kelly Criterion calculates the proportion of your own funds to bet on an outcome whose odds are higher than expected, so your own bankroll grows exponentially.
     
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The Formula
 
The Kelly Criterion formula:
  
(BP – Q) / B 
 
B = Decimal odds – 1
P = The Probability of success
Q = The Probability of failure (i.e 1 - P)
 
To explain this we will use a coin toss as our example.
 
The odds for the coin to land on heads is 2.00.
 
While the probability of success is 53%, it will land on heads.
 
Therefore, we work out the stake like this:
 
P = 0.53
Q = 1 – 0.53 = 0.47
B = 2 – 1 = 1 
 
(0.53 x 1- 0.47) / 1 = 0.06
 
0.06 x 100 = 6%
 
So, on this bet, it’s recommended you bet 6% of your bankroll.
 
The main advantage of this staking method is it helps you strike the right balance between risk and safety.
 
An important aspect when it comes to being a successful sports bettor.
 
Until next time,
Christopher Ammon
 
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The most debated staking method I've come across - Here's what you need to know
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