The EV revolution is happening!

by , 22 November 2017
The EV revolution is happening!
Northam Platinum CEO, Paul Dunne said in a recent interview with MiningMX “There's been a lot of hype around battery-powered EVs, but these will not replace the internal combustion engine for a number of reasons.”

Now I understand you ‘talk your book'. If you are a platinum miner, you want to ensure people know you are positive of the outlook for the industry you operate in.

But it's hopeful at best to think that the days of internal combustion engines aren't coming to an end…

And I believe that oil companies should be even more fearful than platinum miners of becoming obsolete…

So how can I claim that Mr Dunne is dead wrong about electric cars?

  
 
The numbers show that electric cars are no longer just an idea for the future!
 
In the last quarter, electric car sales worldwide hit 287,000 cars.
 
To put that into perspective… Total new car sales in South Africa were 101,146 during the last quarter. The quarter before that, sales were at 85,782.
 
So, worldwide electric car sales are more than double, almost triple South African new car sales!
 
Electric car sales are booming!
 
In fact, according to a Bloomberg report, electric car sales are up 63% from a year ago, and 23% from last quarter.
 
“The Chinese government is very focused on pushing up EV sales,” said Aleksandra O’Donovan, advanced transport analyst at BNEF and one of the authors of the report. “One reason for that is the local pollution levels in the cities, and a second is for China to build domestic heroes to compete internationally in this market.”
 
This means electric car sales will hit 1 million cars for the year mark for the first time this year!
 
Now sure, on a large scale it's still only a drop in the bucket.
 
Electric car sales are standing at around 1.8% of total global car sales.
 
But in 2011, they sat at 0.07% of total car sales. And in 2015, they sat at around 0.6% of total global sales…
 
If electric car sales hit 60% growth for another three years (as they did this year), they’ll sit at around 7% of global car sales by 2020!
 
The more electric cars are sold the cheaper they’ll get
 
Now at this stage one of the major factors against electric cars are that they’re still quite expensive compared to internal combustion cars.
 
But we all understand economies of scale. And by the time electric cars hit 7% of total global sales (or a couple million cars per year) economies of scale will start to realise.
 
In fact, another study points to various sources expecting electric car sales to attract even a larger market share than 7% by 2020.
 
Deutsche Bank expect 11%, PWC expects 10%...



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We’re seeing EXPONENTIAL growth right in front of our eyes…
 
A 2012 study by oil producing companies put electric cars at 1.2% of the global vehicle fleet in 2035.
 
By 2015, these same companies revised their forecast upward to 6%. That means, they were wrong by a factor of FIVE TIMES in a mere three-year period. I believe these figures are still a bit conservative…
 
According to Morgan Stanley’s “Global Autos and Shared Mobility” team of analysts, electric cars will take over the world.
 
A recent article by the MIT Technology Review states, “Electric vehicles will become a more economical option than internal combustion cars in most countries in the next decade.”
 
And according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, around one in three cars in the world will be electric by 2040. Currently there are roughly a million electric cars in the world, compared to 1.2 billion cars in total.
 
That means, for electric cars to reach the one in three mark, they will grow from the current million to 400 million.
 
That is 400 times growth!
 
Simply put, the electric car market is on the precipice of truly MASSIVE growth.
 
Look at WHAT you invest in – not just to ensure growth – but to avoid value destruction
 
Simply put – the electric car revolution is upon us.
 
And things will change drastically thanks to it.
 
Oil demand will drop. Sure, there will still be many fuel-operated cars, trucks and boats.
 
But a massive amount will be substituted by electric. And it will force internal combustion engines to become more efficient.
 
On the flip side, demand for aluminum and copper will soar as electric cars require more of these materials than current cars do…
 
Sure – the change won’t be overnight. But don’t be caught sleeping when this ‘revolution’ happens. And certainly don’t dismiss it outright as something that’ll never happen….
 
Here’s to unleashing real value
  
Francois Joubert
 

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