A simple way to bet on the Super Rugby and win big

by , 15 March 2017
A simple way to bet on the Super Rugby and win big
The Super Rugby season has just kicked off, and we are now in the second round of the tournament.

The tournament has 18 teams, competing until August giving us many chances to profit in the coming months.

Today, I'm going to share the four variables that have allowed me to accurately predict 66% of the Super Rugby bets I placed.

Let's get to it.

The simple - but powerful when used right - sports betting strategy

 
The variables are quite simple: 
1. Team form
2. Players and injuries
3. Team balance
4. The kicker

The only variable you won’t be able to calculate is an upset occurring, but with these four variables you will be able to make the most accurate prediction when it comes to your Super Rugby bets.
 
Let’s break down the following variables in more detail.

Rugby Tip 1 – Current team form

 
The first variable I look at when choosing to back a team or not, is their current form.
 
Looking at a team’s form longer than six months will blur your results, especially in the beginning of the season.
 
When a team has won 
three or more games in a row, convincingly, consider backing them, they are on a winning streak and are likely to continue.
 
A team who has a winning record will likely have the following traits: 
1. A high morale
2. Will have a winning game plan
3. Winning trends will lead to a winning culture within the team
If a team can tick all these boxes, consider backing them and move on to tip number two.
 

Rugby Tip 2 – Players and injuries

 
Once you have selected a team, it is now time to do some reading, a lot of reading, as you want to absorb as much information as possible.
 
Since Rugby is a physical game, it puts a lot of pressure both mentally and physically on the players and the positions they fill.
 
Injuries will occur, as well as a player’s will.
 
It is now time to do some reading, and the first place to go will be the key players and any injuries.
 
Even though Rugby is a team sport there are certain players that play very important roles when it comes to the success of any rugby game, these are your key players.
 
Your key players, like flyhalf, scrum half and even the captain are the first place to go, if they are injured consider looking at their replacements before you wager on.
On the other side if your team is healthy and fit, with a winning streak, look at the opposing team and their injuries.
 
If they have injured key players, move on with your wager.

Rugby Tip 3 – Team balance
 
A successful team will be one that is able to score points while simultaneously applying scoreboard pressure.
 
A general rule is that a team with a great offence is a safe bet, but Rugby is a game of both offence and defence.
 
A team that can shift from defence to offence and back to defence is a well-balanced team.
 
How to calculate offence and defence.
 
To calculate offence, take all the points a team has scored in a tournament and divide it by the number of games played.
 
For example: The Chiefs 2016 Super Rugby Season
The Chiefs played 17 games in total including quarter and semi-final, managing to score 560 points.
 
560/17=32.9 points scored per game on average.
 
To calculate defence, take all the points the team had conceded in a tournament and divide it by the number of games played.
 
For example: The Chiefs 2016 Super Rugby Season
The Chiefs played 17 games in total including quarter and semi-final, conceding 387 points.
 
387/17=22.7 points conceded per game on average.
 
With the above noted, the perfect team to back will be one that is well balanced with both good offence and good defence. To get the bigger picture, calculate all the teams and arrange in order of best to worst for both offence and defence.
 

I’ve done it for you, with the table below:

 




The above tables have been averaged over the 15 games played, excluding the quarterfinals, semi-finals and finals and have been arranged from best to worst.
 
Rugby Tip 4 – The Kicker
 
Kicking has become an art in Rugby, but it’s the place kicker that is the purest, most methodical when it comes to this discipline.
 
The goal kicker, usually played by the flyhalf, plays a massive role in the outcome a close match. When a penalty is awarded, the team will choose to kick for goal, if the kick goes through it will give the team 3 additional points.
 
“History has shown us that the teams with a better than average goal kicker have traditionally been winning teams.”
 
To calculate the accuracy of any chosen goal kicker, take the total number of goals kicked and divide it by the number of successful kicks. Multiply this number by 100 and you will get the kickers accuracy.
 
For example: take Patrick Lambie from his 2016 Super Rugby season
 
15/19=0.789
0.789 x 100=78.94%
 
Therefore, Patrick Lambie had a 78.94% accuracy rating in his 2016 Super Rugby season.
 
“Be a good coach to yourself”
 
Before you make your wager, I want you to compare the two teams against each other using the above variables, and you will be more successful when placing your Rugby bets.
 
I should mention that upsets do happen however, you can minimise unnecessary losses by doing your research!

The money is in the research!


 
 



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