Betting on Rugby - and finding value
Let’s look one of this weekend’s past Super Rugby match.
As we can see, betting on the favourite will only yield you 0.08.
Which means if you placed R100 on the Hurricanes to win, you would only receive R8 profit.
…. There is no real point in risking 12.5 times what you could potentially earn back.
What about the underdog?
Well, since they are priced at 7, a R100 bet would yield you a possible R700 profit, if they win.
Sounds amazing right, well if you do more research and add up the math you would see that’s a far-fetched dream.
Not an impossible one, this is sports betting and anything can happen on the day, but I don’t see any value on putting my money on a dream.
What are rugby handicaps?
As you can guess from the name handicap, the bookies have given one team a certain number of points to start out with at the beginning of the match.
For example, you may see the bookies price the Hurricanes (-19.5).
This means that the Hurricanes start the game with a -20 points deficit.
Since you can’t have 0.5 points just round up – the bookies use this trick to confuse amateur bettors.
So if the Hurricanes beat the Brumbies.
Hurricanes (35) – Brumbies (7)
You would take the Hurricanes score of 35 and minus 20 giving you 15 points, since the Brumbies only managed to score 7 points, you still win!
In the eyes of the bookies, the score is only:
Hurricanes (15) – Brumbies (7)
The same can go for the underdog, giving them points at the start of the game.
For example, if you had the same teams but the Brumbies are handicapped at (+19.5).
They start the game, in the eyes of the bookies, with 20 points on the board.
With the same score of Hurricanes (35) – Brumbies (7), you would add the 20 points to the Brumbies and the score would look something like this.
Hurricanes (35) – Brumbies (27).
Unfortunately, this would be a losing bet, but the value given to this instrument will greatly improve your winnings.
You will find odds from 0.7 up to 1, depending on the type of handicap offered.
Rather than the meagre 0.08 offered for an outright win.
So there you have it, a valuable way to bet on Rugby!