Guy Algeo

  • Running for the Exit ‘en Mass' - One to Buy with one to Sell
  • The mid-term budget spooked many investors as it was thin on detail, but exposed an unexpected gap between income and expenses. These events typically create spikes in the currency. History shows that this is not the time to panic, however the risk of further downgrades has certainly increased and now look unavoidable. We have consistently suggested that you regularly review your offshore i... ››› more
  • [31 October 2017]
  • Two to Buy with None to Sell this week!
  • The Rand strengthened 3.3% last week on a weaker US Dollar, higher appetite for risk assets and a court ruling indicating President Zuma could face corruption charges - that were previously withdrawn. Support for Cyril Ramaphosa as the ANC's next leader is growing. A Bloomberg survey of 26 political analysts has 16 of them expecting Ramaphosa to pip Dlamini-Zuma - with which we concur. A Ramph... ››› more
  • [17 October 2017]
  • Two to Buy and One to Sell this week!
  • The Top40 index is up 15.5% year to date, which is a result of Naspers and Richemont. In fact, if you strip out NPN and CFR, the Top40 index would be down 0.50%. We've had a buy on both shares this year, and remain invested. Global markets are working in tandem and hitting record highs, this week we have Federal Open Market Committee minutes and Mario Draghi, all eyes are on any indication... ››› more
  • [10 October 2017]
  • The Year that was - The biggest winner of 2016 was the Rand!
  • 2016 has been a year many will quickly forget, but for the shock results of the Brexit vote and the US elections; it was a year where many cans were kicked down the road. Global growth remained benign and potential silver-linings have yet to gain material traction because of lingering uncertainties such as the future US foreign policy, the tensions in South East Asia, lingering debt problems i... ››› more
  • [22 September 2017]
  • The state of our nation + 3 to buy and 2 to sell
  • The JSE Top 40 closed the week down 1,5%. Higher commodity prices; Gold, Silver and Brent Oil were up more than 2%, while Platinum managed 1,6%. These were not enough to save the Resources Index (down 3%) from a stronger Rand. Industrials and Financials were also softer. Anglogold up 9,3% and Harmony 9,5% responding to a firmer Gold Price (up 2,5%). PSG rallied 6%, see comment below. ... ››› more
  • [22 September 2017]
  • Getting it right… 2 to buy and 2 to sell
  • Where is, the Rand going? The biggest surprise last week came from the Rand which strengthened another 2,3% against the US Dollar and 3% to the Pound. This put Rand hedge stocks under pressure and the Resources Index fell 2,7%. The JSE Top 40 index was down 1,5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,8% and the S&P500 1,5%, touching new highs. European markets were firmer but m... ››› more
  • [22 September 2017]
  • Commodities take a step lower - Three to buy and one to sell
  • Commodities take a step lower Brent oil led the commodity basket lower last week, losing 8,1%; Platinum and Gold were down 5,7% and 2,4% respectively. Although the Rand softened, the pressure was too much for the JSE All Share Index which fell 0,8%. Resources fell 5,5%, but the rest of the sectors held up well. International indices were slightly softer across most time zone... ››› more
  • [22 September 2017]
  • "Triple Witching" stirs local market rally- Two to buy and two to sell
  • “Triple Witching” refers to the combined expiration of the Index futures, Index options and stock options. In the UK and US this happens on Friday's, but in SA it happens a day earlier on Thursday. The event typically creates increased market activity and in some cases volatility. Global markets were relatively subdued for last week's expiry, the US, UK and European majors were firmer by b... ››› more
  • [22 September 2017]
  • Choppy waters ahead? - Two to buy and one to sell
  • The news yesterday that several ministers have been recalled to SA has created some consternation; the Rand jolted back 3%. There is speculation of a cabinet reshuffle and/or further legal developments relating to the impasse between Treasury, Banks, and the Gupta's…... The new Mining Charter is expected to be released this week. And the market is bracing itself for new challenges. This just... ››› more
  • [22 September 2017]
  • Cabinet reshuffle announced - Two to buy and one to sell
  • Admittedly, I expected more movement in the Rand once the cabinet reshuffle was announced. We have a saying that “the Market always knows” which seems to apply in this case. When Mr. Nene was removed, the Rand fell 8,5% within the first few days and then extended those losses by another 10% a few weeks later. By comparison the Rand has loss only 7% so far, perhaps the Market knew that SA I... ››› more
  • [22 September 2017]
  • Moving swiftly along - Three to buy
  • A week of heightened protests has ended and the ANC Cadre are holding the fort, for now. Their confidence masks the growing dissension from all sides, including members of its own party, eventually pressure will come to bear. Fitch followed S&P in downgrading SA, but again the reaction was relatively muted. Clearly the market had been preparing for this eventuality. Of more concern is that som... ››› more
  • [22 September 2017]
  • If you bought Lifecare Health two weeks ago, you'd be up 27% - Two to buy and one to sell
  • Global markets are watching developments around the French elections for direction. Once again, a far-right candidate, with radical views is the underdog and has the potential to create a shock to the status quo. Emmanuel Marcon is leading Marine Le Pen after the first round, both candidates have offered to hold referendums on remaining part of the European Union. The US earnings season k... ››› more
  • [22 September 2017]
  • Macron wins French election, settles markets - Two to buy and one to sell
  • US markets closed at record highs on Friday, helped by technology stocks like Apple, Facebook and Google. The strength of the US markets is filtering through to other developed markets and the victory by Emmanuel Macron in the French elections eliminates one more hurdle. Improving global sentiment bodes well for the weeks ahead. The rise in technology stocks is playing out nicely for our inve... ››› more
  • [22 September 2017]
  • While the Cape roasts, Trump has upset Paris! - Three to buy, one to sell
  • Last week local news was dominated by developments around the #Guptaleaks. New revelations seem to jeopardise President Zuma and that served to strengthen the Rand. To top it off, S&P held our foreign currency rating a notch below investment grade, which drove the Rand below USD/ZAR 12,80. At about the same time, President Trump pulled out of the Paris accord, still denying any link with clima... ››› more
  • [21 September 2017]
  • US interest rates, Three to buy and one to sell
  • US interest rates on the rise. Fed Chair Janet Yellen provided testimony last week indicating a high likelihood of another US interest rate hike in March. The markets are now pricing in a 0,25% hike. The US dollar is strengthening again. Local markets were flat over the week. The All Share squeezed out a gain of 0,1%, Resources were similar and Industrials down marginally (0,5%), Fin... ››› more
  • [16 March 2017]
  • Budgets, Two to buy and two to sell this week
  • The Budget was delivered without too much fuss. Everyone knew there would be a “Gap” and the balancing act was to find a suitable filler. The new tax bracket was a bit of a surprise, but the hiking of the marginal tax rate was expected. Never the less bracket creep was significant so everybody shoulders the burden. In SA, the market fell 1%; Gold shares were under pressure as the Rand held ... ››› more
  • [28 February 2017]
  • Valentines Stocks! + 3 to buy and 1 to sell
  • The state of our nation A strong rally on Friday reversed losses on the JSE and helped the Top 40 close the week up 0,75%. Financials gained 2% while Industrials and Resources were marginally higher. Markets continued to respond positively to the Trump administration's rhetoric, particularly regarding lower taxes. Data from China and Japan supported the market rally. The Nikkei rose 2,5% a... ››› more
  • [16 February 2017]
  • Trump's first days in office + 3 to buy and 2 to sell
  • Last week's sentiment remained positive and markets continued their rally. President Trump's first days in office are being closely monitored and provide plenty for traders to digest. The JSE Top 40 closed the week up 0,8%, but retreated slightly on Friday along with generally softer developed markets; for the year to date the JSE is up 7,7%. Kumba rallied 27% after it provided a product... ››› more
  • [31 January 2017]
  • Movers of the Week - Plus 3 to buy and 2 to sell
  • Trump in the White House - America First! As President Trump was being inaugurated the markets appeared to be waiting for direction. The JSE closed slightly lower, down 0,6% and the major developed markets were little changed if not slightly softer. Currency and Commodity also appear to be in a holding pattern. Trump's speech was direct and unambiguous, watch-out as America puts its foot... ››› more
  • [24 January 2017]
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