While October was the month we had Black Tuesday in 1929, Black Monday in 1987 and a big sell off in October 2008 post Lehman's collapse, it generally ends the month up.
Over the past 100 years the Dow and S&P have ended positive 62% of the time with an average gain of 0.4% but with heightened vola... ››› more
It is every trader's goal to be able to accurately predict where markets are heading.
And it's been my mission this year to find a reliable indicator that can predict where the JSE ALSI Top 40 is headed.
After plotting a whole bunch of indicators, relative strength oscillators and indices, I think I've done it.
And it's all thanks to Japan.
Today I'll discuss this predictor, wh... ››› more
Following on the theme of buying shares at a discount, today's company is trading at a discount to its net asset value as well as paying over 6.5% in dividends.
You will get paid to patiently wait for the company's share price to return to a premium to its net asset value (NAV).
The biggest reason for the discount is that it failed to comply with credit regulations in the past. These issues... ››› more
Buying shares at a significant discount provides some downside protection.
Knowing you bought R1 of assets for 79 cents gives you comfort, and one investment holding company is trading at exactly that.
While investment holding companies typical trade at a discount to their some of the parts value, when these companies sell or distribute assets, the benefit is received at full market value.
... ››› more
Emerging market currencies are losing ground against the majors, giving international investors more “bang for their buck”. The latest bout of weakness comes on the back of CPI in Turkey spiking to 18% and PPI to 32.1%. International investors will not be rushing in just yet as they await a week full of data from emerging markets.
... ››› more
Global markets are riding a rising tide of positivity from hawkish FOMC meeting minutes, US Fed Chair Powell indicating the US economy is strong and a positive US and Mexico trade deal.
Investors shouldn't fear new record highs because historical market data indicates it's a bullish signal. When a new all-time high is achieved, there is a 90% chance of achieving a new all-time high in the four... ››› more
The rand lost 4% of its value in mere days last week.
At the same time, between 13 and 15 August the JSE lost 4% of its value.
As uncertainty at home and abroad causes this kind of volatility, there's a simple kind of investment that warrants a place in portfolios.
I'm talking about dividend paying stocks. The appeal is simple, dividend payers can provide investors with tangible returns (... ››› more
Did you know in a 200-year period, nothing has come close to matching the long-term compounded returns of stocks?
In a study conducted by University of Pennsylvania finance professor, Jeremy Siegel,
showed that every $1 invested in:
• Treasury Bills, grew to $5,061
• Bonds were worth $18,235
• Gold rose to $32.84 204
And stocks returned a phenomenal $12.7 million.
But do... ››› more
For the last four years, this index has been sitting in my “TBTT” (Too Boring To Trade) list.
It's done absolutely nothing but consolidate in a sideways trend since 2014.
Until last month… where it broke out of its chains and started an entirely new trend - up!
This is now one index that's no longer too boring to trade- I see some significant profit opportunities lining up.
... ››› more
On 13 August Wescoal, a small coal miner on the JSE, had sales equaling to 3.5 million shares for the day.
This is roughly equal to 18 times the average shares traded per day - for the last year!
Clearly there was major interest in the company…
And, considering that volume trade in the company is 30% higher since July than it has been for the past year you'd be right to guess there's so... ››› more
Take a look at this chart...
See the big fat flat red line – that means the JSE is going nowhere fast. There is no strong rise or fall. In fact, you might say its flat lining.
For a trader, we call this a sideways market and this is the perfect picture.
Above is the daily JSE All Share Top 40 Index chart since January 2018!
Anyone... ››› more
The JSE has remained buoyant after falling due to the ANC's EWC announcement last week. It's been range bound since breaking above its previous consolidation phase.
A rally into year-end is still on the cards thanks to several JSE heavy weights earning significant offshore revenue.
Stronger global growth and a rand that is facing headwinds into next year's elections should see earnings inc... ››› more
The JSE was one of the few markets that ended last week lower. The Rand strengthened on the back of China being more passive in the “Trade War”. Commodity prices also pulled back last week causing the resources sector to impact the market performance. We've given up all the recent gains and are back in buying territory.
SA equities are cheap when you compare the median P/E ratio of the All... ››› more
After a wild two weeks, the Top40 is quickly approaching a key resistance level as the US dollar softens. This is on the back of US Jobs data that signals the Fed will hike gradually and that “Trade War” fears have subsided.
This risk on sentiment has seen investors buying the dip and remaining bullish. Last night we had the Dow up almost 1% and the S&P up 0.70%. This will provide some sup... ››› more
Q1 GDP coming out at -2.2%, the worst since Q1 2009, reflects that the Ramaphoria optimism has not resulted in any tangible results and likely kept investors complacent.
The rand strength is hard to explain and perhaps it will weaken while investors and portfolio managers digest the impact of these GDP figures on their investments.
Look to pick up the quality rand hedges that have been sol... ››› more
Look at the graph below…
It may look like your typical graph of a company's share price, but it's not. And if it was, you'd better be worried.
But this graph actually depicts what a shrinking stock market looks like.
And right now, you need to know what it means and the investment approach you must take if you have any chance of making money from the JSE.
It... ››› more
These are the “widest discounts to sum of the parts I have tracked in many years; I see … excellent long term value here…”
These are the words from a fellow analyst regarding two specific JSE listed investment companies.
Following his statement, I had a deeper look at the two he refers to as well as other companies. And what I found is astounding.
Businesses are selling at 15%, ... ››› more
Turn on Bloomberg and all you'll see is red…
The Dow Jones Stock Exchange crashed over 1,000 points dropping 4.15% in a day.
The S&P tanked 100 points dropping 3.75% in a day. And the Nasdaq fell 275 points dropping 3.90% in a day.
Come back to our local stock market and you'll see a big market drop.
Should you start to panic with your investments or will this pass.
Today, I'll tell... ››› more
I can remember my honeymoon like yesterday.
We were crazy in love.
And for months afterward this euphoric phase continued.
I could make no mistake in her eyes, nor she in mine. Everything was perfect.
Then suddenly reality struck. Our first big fight after getting married.
And suddenly we realized being married is tough, and the good times go hand in hand with the tough ones…... ››› more
If you ask any trader how trading is going on the JSE, you'll hear the same thing.
“It's damn difficult.”
“The JSE can't decide on direction”
So whether you buy or sell, chances are you've got it wrong!
But if you know how to read a ‘Blue Diamond', you would know how to profit in this environment.
Let me show you what I mean…
I’m pr... ››› more
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