When Cyril Ramaphosa managed to defeat Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and the Jacob Zuma faction for the position of ANC president, the rand went crazy.
It moved stronger by more than 10% versus the US dollar and was the world's best performing currency over the last month.
I do not argue the relief felt after the Ramaphosa win is unwarranted.
I will however say that this one change wi... ››› more
On Friday 24 November S&P downgraded South Africa's long term local government bonds to junk rating.
The problem according to S&P is that government in recent years have focused merely on the distribution of income, instead of trying to grow our income…
“As a consequence, South Africa’s economy has stagnated and external competitiveness has eroded. We expect that offsetting fiscal m... ››› more
The rand started out 2017 at 13.78, and quickly strengthened to R12.42 in mid-March.
This would've negated strengthening commodity prices world-wide.
The price of copper, ferrochrome, gold and aluminium all rose during 2017.
But - fortunately for South African producers of these commodities the rand weakened yet again, now trading in the R14 range.
And that means all of these commo... ››› more
The mid-term budget spooked many investors as it was thin on detail, but exposed an unexpected gap between income and expenses.
These events typically create spikes in the currency. History shows that this is not the time to panic, however the risk of further downgrades has certainly increased and now look unavoidable.
We have consistently suggested that you regularly review your offshore i... ››› more
Industrials down 3%
Industrials took the brunt of weaker markets last week as concerns regarding the economic outlook post US elections weighed on sentiment. Woolies was down 6,3% and several other industrial shares fell by approximately 4%.
Naspers down 7,9%
Rand strength and weakness in social media stocks put pressure on Naspers. Facebook was down 8,6% while Groupon fell 19%. Some anal... ››› more
I must say… I'm very impressed with the level of questions I'm getting from you lately.
It's taking Trading Tips to a whole new level of trading professionalism.
And I couldn't be prouder of having you on board.
Just two years ago, I received very easy trading questions that you could find the answers on Google. But lately they have been in-depth questions that has required me to apply... ››› more
2016 has been a year many will quickly forget, but for the shock results of the Brexit vote and the US elections; it was a year where many cans were kicked down the road.
Global growth remained benign and potential silver-linings have yet to gain material traction because of lingering uncertainties such as the future US foreign policy, the tensions in South East Asia, lingering debt problems i... ››› more
Happy new year everyone, I hope you all had a good break and did tons of holiday shopping for your friends and family!
Why? Because yesterday marked the beginning of the retail reporting season. And, in the next couple of weeks we're going to see just how much South African's spent at the shops in December.
There is no doubt the market is expecting a super tough Xmas period for the beleag... ››› more
AVI is a South African based company, listed on the JSE in the Food Products sector, and is centered on the FMCG market.
AVI's extensive brand portfolio includes more than 50 brands. The Group comprises of trading subsidiaries that manufacture, process, market & distribute branded consumer products.
AVI brands span across a range of categories including: hot beverages, sweet and savory bis... ››› more
Admittedly, I expected more movement in the Rand once the cabinet reshuffle was announced. We have a saying that “the Market always knows” which seems to apply in this case.
When Mr. Nene was removed, the Rand fell 8,5% within the first few days and then extended those losses by another 10% a few weeks later. By comparison the Rand has loss only 7% so far, perhaps the Market knew that SA I... ››› more
A week of heightened protests has ended and the ANC Cadre are holding the fort, for now. Their confidence masks the growing dissension from all sides, including members of its own party, eventually pressure will come to bear.
Fitch followed S&P in downgrading SA, but again the reaction was relatively muted. Clearly the market had been preparing for this eventuality. Of more concern is that som... ››› more
As it stands, we are at the tail end of an eight-year bull market and, by most estimates, markets in the developed world are massively overpriced versus historical levels.
When we have seen such conditions in the past, global markets almost always fell dramatically within a year or two.
Adding to this risk is the fact that the US Fed, the European Central Bank and a number of other central ... ››› more
• Should I close the trade for a R1,836 profit?
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Q. Hi Timon, on Tuesday I bought Sibanye Gold for R826. So far, it has made R1,836 profit. Should I close the trade or let it run more? C
Answer by Timon Rossolimos, Red Hot Storm Trader
Asking me this question is ver... ››› more
Pioneer has been under tremendous pressure since releasing its results on 22 May 2017.
Its earnings miss was partly due to an unfortunate hedging strategy, weaker consumer demand and slower African sales.
That said, the aggressive sell-off now looks overdone.
This secret made these three men multi-millionaires
Over half a ce... ››› more
I was wrong about the rand. I thought it was going to go up to R10 a dollar, but I'm not going to cry about it.
You can see looking at the USD/ZAR (United States Dollar versus the South African Dollar) weekly chart, a large wedge pattern formed from January 2016 up ‘till August 2017.
A wedge pattern is known as a reversal pattern where the price wedges down into a triangle formation. And a... ››› more
Over the past three years, the JSE's Financial index would've made you around 7%.
The JSE's Industrial's index would've returned around 27%, and had you invested in the Resources Index, you'd have lost a whopping 38% over the same period.
Clearly, you need to pay attention to where you're investing if you want to make money in today's tough market.
So, as we're heading into the last qu... ››› more
The major news is today's GDP growth figure for the 2nd quarter. The print should come out at 2.6% and signal a short-lived recession.
The Rand's strength was given a boost after poor jobs numbers out from the US on Friday, but has started consolidating around R12.95. We believe clients should use the current strength to allocate an appropriate portion of assets to offshore markets. - Contact ... ››› more
This might be the most important week for determining the market direction for the rest of the year, we have:
• A Fed announcement on their tapering on Wednesday
• A SARB announcement on interest rates om Thursday
• Futures closeout on Thursday
The market is expecting (with a 98.6% probability) the Fed to not pull the trigger on an additional rate hike. On the flip side, local inte... ››› more
Last week's sentiment remained positive and markets continued their rally. President Trump's first days in office are being closely monitored and provide plenty for traders to digest.
The JSE Top 40 closed the week up 0,8%, but retreated slightly on Friday along with generally softer developed markets; for the year to date the JSE is up 7,7%.
Kumba rallied 27% after it provided a product... ››› more
Trump in the White House - America First!
As President Trump was being inaugurated the markets appeared to be waiting for direction. The JSE closed slightly lower, down 0,6% and the major developed markets were little changed if not slightly softer. Currency and Commodity also appear to be in a holding pattern.
Trump's speech was direct and unambiguous, watch-out as America puts its foot... ››› more
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