The RMB/BER Business confidence index for 2018 Q1, rose sharply to 45, the highest level since 2015. A level above 50 is considered positive, but it's a move in the right direction.
As mentioned last week, improvements in investor, business and consumer confidence is the tail wind behind improving economic growth.
There are a few obstacles that could come in the way of increasing growth li... ››› more
Economic data for January showed some positive signs, but sentiment took another hit after parliament voted to change the constitution regarding land rights. Despite assurances that this should be done on unused land, without affecting food security and focus on the development of new agricultural zones, it introduces another hurdle for new investment.
The market is concerned that it's another... ››› more
In the earlier parts of my beginner's guide to investing in cryptos, I covered some general rules for investing in cryptos and the different types of cryptos.
Today, we get to the fun part.
In part three of my beginners guide to investing in cyptos, I'll briefly explain how to structure your crypto portfolio.
But more importantly, I’ll take you through all the steps to buying crypto... ››› more
President Ramaphosa announced a late-night cabinet reshuffle that has seen some key Ministry replacements, notably the return of Nhlanhla Nene to the finance ministry and Pravin Gordhan as Public Enterprises Minster.
One of the most important legislative changes made in the past week was the increase in offshore allocation in Regulation 28. African focused investments are now limited to a max... ››› more
Last week, the market saw a strong bounce following Zuma's 'sudden' resignation after re-iterating he "hasn't found someone that can tell him what he has done wrong”.
Traders started to take profit on Friday, which will see the markets trend lower before the budget speech this week.
This sell off could be one of the last dips before a broader rally as President Ramaphosa tries to invig... ››› more
The past two weeks have seen investors being spooked by a global selloff in stocks and bonds. This will be short lived and allows investors with fresh capital an opportunity to invest at lower levels.
The global market needs a healthy correction (around 15%) after volatility was at its lowest level in years and investor confidence in the market rising day after day was at record highs.
The... ››› more
February is the month most people focus on the budget speech. Some want to see how much more they will spend on alcohol and cigarettes while others focus on maximising their retirement savings.
You can save 27.5% of your total remuneration, limited to a maximum of R350,000 into a retirement product and significantly reduce your tax. Regularly saving for retirement is key to financial stability... ››› more
Last week South Africa side stepped the exclusion from the World Government Bond Index, as Moody's didn't downgrade its local currency. Instead, Moody's placed South Africa on Credit Watch. This is a period of up to 90 days where it critically evaluates any material changes and can downgrade SA at any-time.
S&P downgraded SA, which sparked panicked selling of the rand after the JSE closed, but... ››› more
Moody's and S&P ratings agencies will be announcing if they drop SA's credit ratings one more notch after the market closes on Friday.
Although Moody's signaled, it wouldn't be making any serious decisions before the 2018 budget, we had Minister Gigaba's mini-budget confirmed that South Africa's in crisis.
A strong focus is one of the core Pillar's Moody's considers when making a decision.... ››› more
President Zuma is trying to curry favour with supporters by investigating solutions to the “free” education agenda. The cost of this “free” education is an almost certain downgrade and the resignation of Michael Sachs. The Rand responded by weakening 20c yesterday.
We've been cautioning investors, to have an appropriate amount of their investable assets exposed to offshore investments.... ››› more
It's important to not panic when it comes to making investment decisions. You need to weigh up your options and plan accordingly. Nenegate caused a stampede for the exit that saw many investors concerned as they watched the Rand recover.
There are a few products that you can invest offshore through that will provide you with capital protection in hard currency. This would be appropriate for in... ››› more
The mid-term budget spooked many investors as it was thin on detail, but exposed an unexpected gap between income and expenses.
These events typically create spikes in the currency. History shows that this is not the time to panic, however the risk of further downgrades has certainly increased and now look unavoidable.
We have consistently suggested that you regularly review your offshore i... ››› more
The Rand strengthened 3.3% last week on a weaker US Dollar, higher appetite for risk assets and a court ruling indicating President Zuma could face corruption charges - that were previously withdrawn.
Support for Cyril Ramaphosa as the ANC's next leader is growing. A Bloomberg survey of 26 political analysts has 16 of them expecting Ramaphosa to pip Dlamini-Zuma - with which we concur. A Ramph... ››› more
The Top40 index is up 15.5% year to date, which is a result of Naspers and Richemont. In fact, if you strip out NPN and CFR, the Top40 index would be down 0.50%.
We've had a buy on both shares this year, and remain invested.
Global markets are working in tandem and hitting record highs, this week we have Federal Open Market Committee minutes and Mario Draghi, all eyes are on any indication... ››› more
PSG has pulled back to a good buying level around the R235 mark. We've been trading the R230/R270 range this year very well.
When you buy PSG you get exposure to a number of companies, like Capitec, now one of South Africa's “big 5” and growing by over 100,000 clients per month.
Through PSG, you also gain exposure to Curro and Studio, which has been unbundled from Curro and starts tradin... ››› more
Industrials down 3%
Industrials took the brunt of weaker markets last week as concerns regarding the economic outlook post US elections weighed on sentiment. Woolies was down 6,3% and several other industrial shares fell by approximately 4%.
Naspers down 7,9%
Rand strength and weakness in social media stocks put pressure on Naspers. Facebook was down 8,6% while Groupon fell 19%. Some anal... ››› more
The producer price index, non-farm payrolls, new housing starts, gross domestic product….
The list of economic indicators released monthly is massive.
The South African Reserve Bank alone releases a four-page report with more than 110 different economic indicators each month. That's not even considering international indicators.
So, which of these indicators should you keep an eye on, a... ››› more
2016 has been a year many will quickly forget, but for the shock results of the Brexit vote and the US elections; it was a year where many cans were kicked down the road.
Global growth remained benign and potential silver-linings have yet to gain material traction because of lingering uncertainties such as the future US foreign policy, the tensions in South East Asia, lingering debt problems i... ››› more
The JSE Top 40 closed the week down 1,5%.
Higher commodity prices; Gold, Silver and Brent Oil were up more than 2%, while Platinum managed 1,6%. These were not enough to save the Resources Index (down 3%) from a stronger Rand. Industrials and Financials were also softer.
Anglogold up 9,3% and Harmony 9,5% responding to a firmer Gold Price (up 2,5%).
PSG rallied 6%, see comment below. ... ››› more
Where is, the Rand going?
The biggest surprise last week came from the Rand which strengthened another 2,3% against the US Dollar and 3% to the Pound. This put Rand hedge stocks under pressure and the Resources Index fell 2,7%. The JSE Top 40 index was down 1,5%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,8% and the S&P500 1,5%, touching new highs. European markets were firmer but m... ››› more
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