While October was the month we had Black Tuesday in 1929, Black Monday in 1987 and a big sell off in October 2008 post Lehman's collapse, it generally ends the month up.
Over the past 100 years the Dow and S&P have ended positive 62% of the time with an average gain of 0.4% but with heightened vola... ››› more
The JSE has remained buoyant after falling due to the ANC's EWC announcement last week. It's been range bound since breaking above its previous consolidation phase.
A rally into year-end is still on the cards thanks to several JSE heavy weights earning significant offshore revenue.
Stronger global growth and a rand that is facing headwinds into next year's elections should see earnings inc... ››› more
Trump dialled down his trade war antagonism by pushing for less tariffs with Europe. This saw investors focus on other data which provided support for riskier assets like the Rand.
Last week we had a positive BRICs summit, the ECB held interest rates steady, US advance GDP came out at 4.1% from 2.2% previously, and China indicated a willingness to ease monetary policy further to support domesti... ››› more
The rand has bucked the emerging market currency trend by strengthening 7.6% year to date. The Brazilian Real, Indian Ruppee and Turkish Lira have all weakened over 7%. The Turkish Central bank surprised the market with its 3% interest rate hike last week.
We should see an increase in market and currency volatility leading into Friday's US employment data, which is expected to stay near the 1... ››› more
As earnings season winds down, the market is taking cues from geopolitics and the weekly macro-economic data that comes out.
The biggest boost the markets will receive is from America and China, agreeing to put aside international trade differences to work on a wider agreement. This is very positive and will be a tail wind for markets to rally higher. Add this to the bullish phase global marke... ››› more
Global markets remain robust with no clear signs of a downturn as volatility slowly declines. Investors are buying even the smallest dip, which has seen the market remain in a bullish phase this past week.
On the currency front, we could see gradual rand weakness over the coming months due to the global interest rates rising.
A Federal Reserve member stated:
"Interest rates ... ››› more
Global markets are being held up by strong first quarter earnings releases and US data from last week that signals US inflation is being controlled.
Over 80% of the S&P 500 has released Q1 results and 78% of them have exceeded expectations. If the trend continues it will be the highest proportion of “beats” in almost 10 years.
This earnings growth is keeping valuations in check, the S&... ››› more
The market has remained robust as Trump shifted most of his focus away from a potential trade war with China to Syria.
This helped the market bump higher as it tries to break above its 200-day moving average. The market remains in a bullish phase, while a sustained break above the 200-day moving average around 50,800 could see the market take another rally towards its 2018 high.
Long term ... ››› more
The market sold off strongly last week Wednesday, but only in the morning. This was an opportunity for the market to reset, find a bottom and allow buyers with fresh capital to come in.
The ALSI future came within a couple points of its 200-week moving average, a level which it has bounced from strongly, since 2014.
It's seen a peak to pull back over 14%, that's a healthy correction and cur... ››› more
Global markets typically have a good run in April before the “Sell in May and Go Away” period, but the spike in volatility in February and March has shaken investors. With global markets down year to date, we should see investors buy this dip and a potential run up in April that will make up for 2018's rocky first quarter.
The below graph shows the S&P 500's average monthly return for the ... ››› more
Late Friday night Moody's released its rating for South Africa and reaffirmed its sovereign debt rating at investment grade.
It even improved its outlook from negative to stable, but stated policy ineffectiveness could “… undermine confidence, growth and social cohesion, with inevitable consequences for the country’s balance sheet”.
The Monetary Policy Committee is expected... ››› more
The RMB/BER Business confidence index for 2018 Q1, rose sharply to 45, the highest level since 2015. A level above 50 is considered positive, but it's a move in the right direction.
As mentioned last week, improvements in investor, business and consumer confidence is the tail wind behind improving economic growth.
There are a few obstacles that could come in the way of increasing growth li... ››› more
Economic data for January showed some positive signs, but sentiment took another hit after parliament voted to change the constitution regarding land rights. Despite assurances that this should be done on unused land, without affecting food security and focus on the development of new agricultural zones, it introduces another hurdle for new investment.
The market is concerned that it's another... ››› more
In the earlier parts of my beginner's guide to investing in cryptos, I covered some general rules for investing in cryptos and the different types of cryptos.
Today, we get to the fun part.
In part three of my beginners guide to investing in cyptos, I'll briefly explain how to structure your crypto portfolio.
But more importantly, I’ll take you through all the steps to buying crypto... ››› more
President Ramaphosa announced a late-night cabinet reshuffle that has seen some key Ministry replacements, notably the return of Nhlanhla Nene to the finance ministry and Pravin Gordhan as Public Enterprises Minster.
One of the most important legislative changes made in the past week was the increase in offshore allocation in Regulation 28. African focused investments are now limited to a max... ››› more
Last week, the market saw a strong bounce following Zuma's 'sudden' resignation after re-iterating he "hasn't found someone that can tell him what he has done wrong”.
Traders started to take profit on Friday, which will see the markets trend lower before the budget speech this week.
This sell off could be one of the last dips before a broader rally as President Ramaphosa tries to invig... ››› more
The past two weeks have seen investors being spooked by a global selloff in stocks and bonds. This will be short lived and allows investors with fresh capital an opportunity to invest at lower levels.
The global market needs a healthy correction (around 15%) after volatility was at its lowest level in years and investor confidence in the market rising day after day was at record highs.
The... ››› more
February is the month most people focus on the budget speech. Some want to see how much more they will spend on alcohol and cigarettes while others focus on maximising their retirement savings.
You can save 27.5% of your total remuneration, limited to a maximum of R350,000 into a retirement product and significantly reduce your tax. Regularly saving for retirement is key to financial stability... ››› more
Last week South Africa side stepped the exclusion from the World Government Bond Index, as Moody's didn't downgrade its local currency. Instead, Moody's placed South Africa on Credit Watch. This is a period of up to 90 days where it critically evaluates any material changes and can downgrade SA at any-time.
S&P downgraded SA, which sparked panicked selling of the rand after the JSE closed, but... ››› more
Moody's and S&P ratings agencies will be announcing if they drop SA's credit ratings one more notch after the market closes on Friday.
Although Moody's signaled, it wouldn't be making any serious decisions before the 2018 budget, we had Minister Gigaba's mini-budget confirmed that South Africa's in crisis.
A strong focus is one of the core Pillar's Moody's considers when making a decision.... ››› more
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