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The Rand

  • Why I'm not hot on the South African retail sector
  • The Foschini Group is down 10.54% in the last month, Mr Price 10.40%, Truworths 6.33%. And Lewis crashed a whopping 16.70%. If you're invested in retail, it's been a bad month for you. But before you start buying into the sector because it ‘shows value' I want to warn you… South African retail sales are dropping and you need to watch out for the fallout   In its most r... ››› more
  • [26 April 2017]
  • If you bought Lifecare Health two weeks ago, you'd be up 27% - Two to buy and one to sell
  • Global markets are watching developments around the French elections for direction. Once again, a far-right candidate, with radical views is the underdog and has the potential to create a shock to the status quo. Emmanuel Marcon is leading Marine Le Pen after the first round, both candidates have offered to hold referendums on remaining part of the European Union. The US earnings season k... ››› more
  • [25 April 2017]
  • Use the Rule of Four to keep your portfolio in the green in ANY market
  • How you can diversify yourself to safety with the ‘Rule of Four' What do you do with your money in a crisis? Do you sell your share portfolio? Do you stick everything in a bank account, in property or in gold? That's the question that popped up around a campfire I had going with friends over the weekend. Considering South Africa's junk status, state capture and political unrest that'... ››› more
  • [19 April 2017]
  • Moving swiftly along - Three to buy
  • A week of heightened protests has ended and the ANC Cadre are holding the fort, for now. Their confidence masks the growing dissension from all sides, including members of its own party, eventually pressure will come to bear. Fitch followed S&P in downgrading SA, but again the reaction was relatively muted. Clearly the market had been preparing for this eventuality. Of more concern is that som... ››› more
  • [11 April 2017]
  • Cabinet reshuffle announced - Two to buy and one to sell
  • Admittedly, I expected more movement in the Rand once the cabinet reshuffle was announced. We have a saying that “the Market always knows” which seems to apply in this case. When Mr. Nene was removed, the Rand fell 8,5% within the first few days and then extended those losses by another 10% a few weeks later. By comparison the Rand has loss only 7% so far, perhaps the Market knew that SA I... ››› more
  • [06 April 2017]
  • Choppy waters ahead? - Two to buy and one to sell
  • The news yesterday that several ministers have been recalled to SA has created some consternation; the Rand jolted back 3%. There is speculation of a cabinet reshuffle and/or further legal developments relating to the impasse between Treasury, Banks, and the Gupta's…... The new Mining Charter is expected to be released this week. And the market is bracing itself for new challenges. This just... ››› more
  • [28 March 2017]
  • "Triple Witching" stirs local market rally- Two to buy and two to sell
  • “Triple Witching” refers to the combined expiration of the Index futures, Index options and stock options. In the UK and US this happens on Friday's, but in SA it happens a day earlier on Thursday. The event typically creates increased market activity and in some cases volatility. Global markets were relatively subdued for last week's expiry, the US, UK and European majors were firmer by b... ››› more
  • [21 March 2017]
  • Commodities take a step lower - Three to buy and one to sell
  • Commodities take a step lower Brent oil led the commodity basket lower last week, losing 8,1%; Platinum and Gold were down 5,7% and 2,4% respectively. Although the Rand softened, the pressure was too much for the JSE All Share Index which fell 0,8%. Resources fell 5,5%, but the rest of the sectors held up well. International indices were slightly softer across most time zone... ››› more
  • [16 March 2017]
  • US interest rates, Three to buy and one to sell
  • US interest rates on the rise. Fed Chair Janet Yellen provided testimony last week indicating a high likelihood of another US interest rate hike in March. The markets are now pricing in a 0,25% hike. The US dollar is strengthening again. Local markets were flat over the week. The All Share squeezed out a gain of 0,1%, Resources were similar and Industrials down marginally (0,5%), Fin... ››› more
  • [16 March 2017]
  • Why I'm calling a buy on the JSE, even though many call it expensive
  • “The JSE is too expensive, rather buy these offshore stocks”, if read this headline, and variations of it many times in the past year. Yet, my Red Hot Penny Shares readers would've banked an average gain on shares we sold of 22.21% in 2016. Whilst there are still calls to drop the JSE and put your money elsewhere I am optimistic. I believe 2017 can be just as good, or better, than ... ››› more
  • [02 March 2017]
  • Budgets, Two to buy and two to sell this week
  • The Budget was delivered without too much fuss. Everyone knew there would be a “Gap” and the balancing act was to find a suitable filler. The new tax bracket was a bit of a surprise, but the hiking of the marginal tax rate was expected. Never the less bracket creep was significant so everybody shoulders the burden. In SA, the market fell 1%; Gold shares were under pressure as the Rand held ... ››› more
  • [28 February 2017]
  • Getting it right… 2 to buy and 2 to sell
  • Where is, the Rand going? The biggest surprise last week came from the Rand which strengthened another 2,3% against the US Dollar and 3% to the Pound. This put Rand hedge stocks under pressure and the Resources Index fell 2,7%. The JSE Top 40 index was down 1,5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,8% and the S&P500 1,5%, touching new highs. European markets were firmer but m... ››› more
  • [22 February 2017]
  • Valentines Stocks! + 3 to buy and 1 to sell
  • The state of our nation A strong rally on Friday reversed losses on the JSE and helped the Top 40 close the week up 0,75%. Financials gained 2% while Industrials and Resources were marginally higher. Markets continued to respond positively to the Trump administration's rhetoric, particularly regarding lower taxes. Data from China and Japan supported the market rally. The Nikkei rose 2,5% a... ››› more
  • [16 February 2017]
  • The state of our nation + 3 to buy and 2 to sell
  • The JSE Top 40 closed the week down 1,5%. Higher commodity prices; Gold, Silver and Brent Oil were up more than 2%, while Platinum managed 1,6%. These were not enough to save the Resources Index (down 3%) from a stronger Rand. Industrials and Financials were also softer. Anglogold up 9,3% and Harmony 9,5% responding to a firmer Gold Price (up 2,5%). PSG rallied 6%, see comment below. ... ››› more
  • [08 February 2017]
  • The shiny trade no one is talking about…
  • I call it platinum fatigue… Eight years ago, platinum hit $2,200/ounce. It subsequently crashed to $800, recovered to $1,500 and dropped back to $800 again in 2016. Everyone's basically given up on platinum, there's just been too much drama for the metal… Did you even notice that platinum is up $100 since December 2017?   On 26 December 2016, Platinum was at $894 per oun... ››› more
  • [01 February 2017]
  • Trump's first days in office + 3 to buy and 2 to sell
  • Last week's sentiment remained positive and markets continued their rally. President Trump's first days in office are being closely monitored and provide plenty for traders to digest. The JSE Top 40 closed the week up 0,8%, but retreated slightly on Friday along with generally softer developed markets; for the year to date the JSE is up 7,7%. Kumba rallied 27% after it provided a product... ››› more
  • [31 January 2017]
  • Movers of the Week - Plus 3 to buy and 2 to sell
  • Trump in the White House - America First! As President Trump was being inaugurated the markets appeared to be waiting for direction. The JSE closed slightly lower, down 0,6% and the major developed markets were little changed if not slightly softer. Currency and Commodity also appear to be in a holding pattern. Trump's speech was direct and unambiguous, watch-out as America puts its foot... ››› more
  • [24 January 2017]
  • JSE up 3.6%, The All Share is up 5% - are these signs of a great year ahead?
  • The JSE was up 3,6% last week, adding to gains from the week before. The All Share index is now up 5% in two weeks, Resources 8,2%, Industrials 4,6% and Financials up 1,3%. January is known to be a month with larger moves than normal, double digit figures are quite common. Watch out for the reversal in February. 2016 was a case in point… Commodity Prices were firm with good gains from Pla... ››› more
  • [17 January 2017]
  • Which will be the top retail pick in 2017?
  • Happy new year everyone, I hope you all had a good break and did tons of holiday shopping for your friends and family! Why? Because yesterday marked the beginning of the retail reporting season. And, in the next couple of weeks we're going to see just how much South African's spent at the shops in December. There is no doubt the market is expecting a super tough Xmas period for the beleag... ››› more
  • [12 January 2017]
  • The Year that was - The biggest winner of 2016 was the Rand!
  • 2016 has been a year many will quickly forget, but for the shock results of the Brexit vote and the US elections; it was a year where many cans were kicked down the road. Global growth remained benign and potential silver-linings have yet to gain material traction because of lingering uncertainties such as the future US foreign policy, the tensions in South East Asia, lingering debt problems i... ››› more
  • [11 January 2017]
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