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Are you a Lion or a Rhino sports bettor?

by , 11 April 2019
Are you a Lion or a Rhino sports bettor?
I doubt you've ever considered whether you're more of a Lion or a Rhino.
 
However, these two animals are not only part of our beautiful big five, but illustrate important traits about the way we think and impact our ability to make successful betting predictions. “Lions know many things, while Rhino’s know one big thing!”
 
Find out which one you are below?
 
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What constitutes good judgement?
 
Philip Tetlock spent the better part of two decades exploring what constitutes good judgement.
 
Over those 20 + years he recorded the predictions of government officials, professors, sports bettors, journalists and even politicians.
 
In order to make it fair he adjusted his calibrations and made a shocking discovery.
As a whole, experts were only marginally better than chance.
 
Meaning experts weren’t all they were cut out to be.
 
Success wasn’t reduced to a yes or no assessment, because predicting is much about correctly predicting the future as it is the speed at which you recognise you have made a mistake and subsequently adjust your belief to compensate for the mistake.
 
Rather than writing off forecasters and experts all together, he was able to distinguish characteristics that identify someone as being better suited to making more accurate predictions.
 
These are the characteristics Tetlock discovered.
 
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Are you a Lion or a Rhino?
 
 
 
Lion Characteristics explained:
 
Multidisciplinary – Incorporates idea’s from a range of disciplines
Adaptable - Try’s several approaches in parallel in order to find one that works
Self-critical – Willing to accept mistakes and adapt or even replace a strategy based on new data
Tolerant of Complexity – Accepts that the world is complex and that certain things cannot be reduced to a hypothesis
Cautious – Predictions are qualified and have an element of probability
Empirical – Observable data is always preferred over theory
 
Rhino’s characteristics explained: 
 
Specialised – Often dedicated to one or two big problems, and are sceptical of outsiders
Unshakable – New data is used to refine the original strategy
Stubborn – Mistakes are blamed on poor luck
Order Seeking – Once a pattern is identified, predictions are uniform
Confident – Rarely change or hedge their position
Ideological – Approach to predictive problems fits within their view of the world
 
Which animal characterises your way of thinking and making predictions?
 
Whilst a lion like approach is agile and incorporates changing circumstances to refine and adjust your predictions, you may be a Rhino, stubborn to accept new information in an attempt to find patterns that align with the world around you.
 
If you’re a Rhino, take the time to move towards a Lion like approach, you’ll soon see the benefits in the way you predict.
 
Until next time,
Christopher Ammon,
Head Tipster, The Winning Streak Team


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