# How to profit from the bookies mistakes

by , 19 July 2018

One of the most interesting things about betting in general is that no one actually knows the true probability of the outcome to any event.

Other than a toss of a coin, a 50% true probability.

Bookmakers are human, and when they set the odds, they base them on their assumptions and state of the market.

It's not unknown for bookmakers to make a mistake.

And it's identifying these mistakes that can see you make some big returns.

Let me show you how…

What is a Value Bet?

If you’re new to sports betting, you may have heard more experienced bettors utter words like:

“Everton shows no value at those odds”

Or

“There is just no value with Liverpool at those odds”

In essence, what they are saying is there is just no point in betting on those teams, since the odds don’t reflect any value.

You just won’t make any good money from those bets.

So when does a bet offer Value?

A bet offers value when:

The Probability of the outcome is greater than the Probability implied by the odds

This simply means the bookie believes a certain event is less likely to happen but if it does, it will pay out an exponentially higher amount on your bet.

The key to successful betting is finding value betting situations.

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Example of a Value Bet

Using a coin toss as our example, we know we have a chance at 50% it will land on either heads or tails.

If the bookie offers us odds at 2.2 for heads.

To calculate the Implied Probability we use this simple equation:

1 / Decimal odds

1/ 2.2=0.4545

0.4545 x 100=45.45%

The implied probability is 45.45%, but we know there is a 50% chance it will land on heads.

This offer now gives you the opportunity to take a bet the bookie thinks is only a 45.45% implied probability, but you’ve calculated a 50% chance.

This is a value bet!

More money for your back pocket.

A real life value bet would look like this:

The English Premier League is set to kick off soon, and let’s say Liverpool are playing at odds of 2.50.

The implied probability of Liverpool winning at odds of 2.50 is:

1 / 2.5=0.4

0.4 x 100=40%

But you’ve done your homework, and using Poisson Distribution, you have calculated your own probability of Liverpool winning at 55%.

We calculate the value as follows:

(55% x 2.50) – 100%=0.375

0.375 x 100=37.5% extra value.

If Liverpool win, you have successfully identified a value bet.

Until next time,
Christopher Ammon

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