One of the most interesting things about betting in general is that no one actually knows the true probability of the outcome to any event.
Other than a toss of a coin, a 50% true probability.
Bookmakers are human, and when they set the odds, they base them on their assumptions and state of the market.
It's not unknown for bookmakers to make a mistake.
And it's identifying these mistakes that can see you make some big returns.
Let me show you how…
What is a Value Bet?
If you’re new to sports betting, you may have heard more experienced bettors utter words like:
“Everton shows no value at those odds”
“There is just no value with Liverpool at those odds”
In essence, what they are saying is there is just no point in betting on those teams, since the odds don’t reflect any value.
You just won’t make any good money from those bets.
So when does a bet offer Value?
A bet offers value when:
The Probability of the outcome is greater than the Probability implied by the odds
This simply means the bookie believes a certain event is less likely to happen but if it does, it will pay out an exponentially higher amount on your bet.
The key to successful betting is finding value betting situations.
There’s a wealth of incredible, potential-packed stocks hidden in the JSE.
Now we want to give you the chance to get in on the next round. The market is packed with massive possibilities in a bunch of sectors. But these three stocks could be your best bet at triple digit gains.
If you wait too long, this run could be over…[more]
Example of a Value Bet
Using a coin toss as our example, we know we have a chance at 50% it will land on either heads or tails.
If the bookie offers us odds at 2.2 for heads.
1 / Decimal odds
0.4545 x 100=45.45%
The implied probability is 45.45%, but we know there is a 50% chance it will land on heads.
This offer now gives you the opportunity to take a bet the bookie thinks is only a 45.45% implied probability, but you’ve calculated a 50% chance.
This is a value bet!
More money for your back pocket.
A real life value bet would look like this:
The English Premier League is set to kick off soon, and let’s say Liverpool are playing at odds of 2.50.
The implied probability of Liverpool winning at odds of 2.50 is:
1 / 2.5=0.4
0.4 x 100=40%
But you’ve done your homework, and using Poisson Distribution
, you have calculated your own probability of Liverpool winning at 55%.
We calculate the value as follows:
(55% x 2.50) – 100%=0.375
0.375 x 100=37.5% extra value.
If Liverpool win, you have successfully identified a value bet.
Until next time,