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Prediction #1: A rejection will cause a price pull back before the big rally
If investors and traders lean towards the decision where the SEC rejects the Bitcoin ETF, we could expect a pull back over the next two to three months.
This is because there’ll be less demand and buying volume which will push the price lower as the currency will remain rogue and unregulated.
However, a price pullback may be just what Bitcoin needs for the uptrend to accelerate. Take a look at the chart below, so I can explain.
Bitcoin is set to rally to over $10,000
Looking at the daily Bitcoin chart, you can see that the downside officially ended as of April 2019 as the Bitcoin price broke above the downtrend (red line) above $4,500 per bitcoin.
This price break above has most likely attracted new investors, in the next few months, to start gathering funds for the new and established uptrend.
If majority of the people expect the SEC to reject the Bitcoin ETF, we can expect the price of Bitcoin to drop back to around $6,000 (Black line). This is a psychological level where I will expect a lot of buying to take place.
This buying will then form a smaller rounding bottom creating a handle for a Cup and handle price break out pattern.
If the price breaks above the brim level (Pink horizontal line), we could then see the Bitcoin price rise all the way to $11,890.
We’ll use the Top-Down method, to help calculate this target.
Target = (Top of cup - Bottom of cup) + Top of cup
= [($7,940 - $3,990) + $7,940]
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Prediction 2: An approval will cause a rally before the pull back
If majority of the people expect the SEC to accept the Bitcoin ETF in August, we will see an influx of investors (before and after the decision) which will cause the crypto-currency to rise.
The reason is with a Bitcoin ETF, people will be able to buy into Bitcoin without dealing with exchanges that aren't fully regulated or trusted.
This decision will attract new, risk-averse investors, institutions and traders into the market. With the sentiment of having the Bitcoin ETF approved we'll most likely not see a pullback in the market, before the big run up, in the next three months.
Instead, we'll see a strong price break out above the top of the Rounding Bottom pattern.
Note: A Rounding Bottom is a Cup and handle pattern without the handle.
The target for the Rounding Bottom will remain the same as the one we used for the Cup and handle pattern as the high and low of both formations are the same.
Target = (Top of Rounding bottom - Bottom of Rounding bottom) + (Top of
= [($7,940 - $3,990) + $7,940]
Either way, both Bitcoin charts look like they're ready to shoot up from here, as the downtrend is over.
Whether there is an approval or a rejection from the SEC with the Bitcoin ETF, at least you know what to expect for the near future for when the government continues to find ways to incorporate the crypto-currency.
“Wisdom yields Wealth”
Analyst, Red Hot Storm Trader