Over the last two weeks, I've successfully bet and won on 3 MMA fights by betting on the underdog.
Together this has made me over R5,000 in profit.
To put that into perspective I staked R1,000 per point on each underdog and won a total of R5,110!
Looking at the statistics it's estimated that underdogs in the UFC win about 34% of the time, 39% in Bellator and only 20% in World Series of Fighting (WSOF).
However, in 2014 if you bet on all the underdogs, you'd have done better than betting on the favourites exclusively.
These rare occurrences are perfect opportunities to profit big time from underdogs.
The key to finding the best underdogs lie in the analytics.
Here's how I did it….
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How to find the underdog with value
Here are five factors you need to consider when looking for valuable underdogs.
• Deconstruct a fighter’s career
This may seem obvious to most people, but many new bettors just take a look at the overall fight record and ignore how the fighter actually won and lost their fights.
When breaking down a fighter’s record, these are the questions you need to be asking yourself:
• How many fights have they won consecutively? – What’s their winning streak?
• How long was their average winning time?
• How active is a fighter? – How many fights has he has this year?
• If the fighter lost – was it by TKO or did it go to the judges?
These are just some of the questions you should be asking yourself when breaking down a fighter’s career.
One of the best sites to use to look up a fighters professional fighting history is Sherdog
Sherdog has records on all fighters in all major MMA promotions. And will give you insight into how the fight ended, who won, how the fighter won, how long the fight was and when it stopped.
This will help you identify how good a particular fighter is overall and if they favour one style over the others.
• Understand the in-fight data
To further understand a fighters’ tendencies inside the cage, you will have to review their infight statistics. With so many websites available there are a few that can give you some fantastic statistics on a fighter’s patterns and behaviour while fighting.
Fightmetric provides you with in-fight statistics such as significant strikes landed, takedown attempts and submission attempts… the list goes on.
Fightmetric not only gives you these statistics, but gives you details into a fighters overall skill set, by breaking down their individual fights and providing you with a snapshot of their recent performance.
This gives you an idea of what a fighter’s offensive and defensive tendencies are during a fight, how much damage they have given and taken both recently and over their careers.
Important stats like takedown defence and their takedown success rate are crucial analytics when trying to find a golden underdog.
As the saying goes, “Styles Make Fights”.
If you can become successful at finding matchups that favour the underdog’s style of fighting, you will be well on your way to finding more lucrative bets.
• Consider the age of the fighter
Although not an exact science, studies have shown that a fighter peaks in their late twenties to early thirties.
Things like speed, power and agility start to atrophy as a fighter ages, and so does their ability to absorb and take a punch.
Fighters who are 36 – 38 years of age get knocked out at nearly twice the rate of fighters who are only 22 – 24. This increase knockout rate for older fighters is largely due to the cumulative damage the fighter has taken over their long career.
• Fighters stance plays a huge role
Some sports bettors believe that a fighter’s stance effects the outcome of the fight.
Most fighters in the UFC use an orthodox stance (right-handed), however the stats have shown that southpaws (left-handed) have a better success rate, winning 53% of their fights.
But the biggest advantage comes when a fighter can switch effectively between orthodox and southpaw, the stats have shown that fighters who can fight in both stances win at 57%.
Considering what stance a fighter is known for should form part of your overall research.
• Mental Warfare
Recently, a lot of fighters use press conferences and interviews as a way to get into their opponents head and throw them off their game.
It’s called Mental Warfare, and some fights are won and lost before the fighter’s even step inside the cage.
To be able to compete at the top of your game, you must always stay composed and fighters who let emotion get the better of them usually fall short of victory.
When you’re looking into a fighter’s history, explore whether they have been in a heated exchange or rivalries and analyse how they performed in the resulting fight. This should give you a good idea of how composed they will be in their upcoming fight.
Until next time,
Head Tipster, The Winning Streak Team
This weekend the UFC will be putting on one hell of a fight card – to get in on the action and profit from the many underdogs on our radar – Join the Winning Streak today!