Why isn't it a good idea to trust emotion when making a bet?
For a start, emotions bias your view on the potential outcome. Just think, if you're a Manchester United fan and have been since a kid, are you ever going to bet against them winning?
Another emotional bias or reaction is what we often refer to as, ‘going with your gut' - we've all had that feeling some time in our lives and convince ourselves of a certain outcome just because we instinctually believe it will happen.
But if you're honest how often has your gut been right?
Most likely 50/50…
So, here's how to identify and correct one of the most detrimental bias's every sports bettor falls prey to.
It couldn't be easier for ordinary people like you to start making money on the English Premier League
If you love soccer and like the idea of winning big amounts to small stakes, then you're going love this!
Every Friday evening I’ll be sending my readers simple, step-by-step instructions on what bets to place to reap the rewards.
Let’s talk about something called the Availability bias and what you can do to minimise its impact
Most of us suffer from availability bias.
That’s because many of us think the likelihood of an event occurring is directly proportional to the ease with which we recall an example of it happening, Take this example: Imagine you were told – “she started smoking when she was nine and she’s now 100”… Imagine if you are a smoker, you most likely will use knowledge of this ‘event’ as reasoning for why it’s ok to continue smoking instead of considering real medical statistics.
Another example is natural disasters.
Much like the one that happened to Hawaii’s big island.
A volcano erupted on May 4th, tearing through residential areas and destroying everything in sight.
The sale of insurance on Hawaii’s big island increased, even though the actual statistical risk greatly diminished after the volcano calmed down.
How does this apply to sports betting?
From a betting perspective, ask yourself this question.
“Do you find it easier to recall a 0 – 0 soccer game or a 1 – 7 high scoring soccer game?”
The answer is always the latter, and bettors must always be wary of assigning a high significance to more recent or memorable results and rather focus on actual match statistics.
Overcoming the Availability Bias by asking the right questions
With sports betting, the questions can be a lot more difficult to answer.
Such as, does Liverpool have a 75% chance of winning this weekend?
So how do we turn this question on its head and make it about the statistics?
It’s simple, the real question becomes.
How well have Liverpool played over their last five games?
This is much easier to answer as you’re looking into the past and assessing performance rather than trying to predict the future.
Don’t let your next sports bet cost you because of availability bias - Leave that ‘Gut Feeling’ at the door and look at the facts.
Until next time,