Did you know that on average you could double your money betting on a draw than on just the old-fashioned winner?
TWO TIME MORE!
Just last weekend, Chelsea took on Manchester United.
The odds for Chelsea to win were 1.77, this means you could turn R1,000 into R1,770.
While the odds for Manchester United to win were 1.80, this would turn R1,000 into R1,800.
But now take a look at the odds for the draw…
Draw odds were 3.84.
That would mean your R1,000 would generate R3,840!
And can you guess the result? A 2:2 draw.
So if you had bet on the draw you would have DOUBLED your money!
Today I want to show you how to calculate the chance of a draw so you can double your money too.
Why your humble cell phone could start making you R8,589 a month...
I'm Timon Rossolimos. Chief strategist for Red Hot Storm Trader service.
When you get your first SMS from me...
You'll be well on your way to a monthly profit of R8,589.
How often do draws happen?
25% of all English Premier league games have ended in a draw since 2007!
That is a quarter of every outcome in an English Premier League game over a season.
Manchester United had the most home draws in the 2016/17 season.
While Chelsea had the fewest draws in the 2016/2017 season.
These all-time stats can be found on the English Premier Leagues fantasy website.
So how do you calculate the likelyhood of a draw using ‘Poisson Distribution’
Using the data from the most recent season, 2017/2018, we will first need to determine the season’s average home and away goals.
We do this by:
• Season total goals scored at home / number of home games (in season)
582 goals scored at home / 380 home games played = 1.53
• Season total goals scored away / number of games (in season)
436 goals scored away / 380 away games played = 1.14
This gives us:
• Average number of goals scored at home: 1.53
• Average number of goals scored away: 1.14
Now we need to calculate the opposite, the number of goals conceded.
This is a simple inverse of the above numbers (as the number of goals a home team scores will equal the same number that an away team concedes)
• Average number of goals conceded at home: 1.14
• Average number of goals conceded away from home: 1.53
We can now use the numbers above to find out a team’s attack and defence strength.
How to predict a team’s goals
We will use Liverpool and Manchester City as our examples.
Calculate Liverpool’s Attack Strength at home:
1. Take the number of goals scored at home in the 2017/2018 season by the home team (Liverpool: 45) and divide by the number of home games (44/19) = 2.31.
2. Divide this value by the season’s average home goals scored per game (2.31/1.53) to get an “Attack Strength” of 1.50.
Calculate Liverpool’s Defence Strength at home:
1. Take the number of goals conceded away (Liverpool: 34) and divide by the number of away games (38/19)= 1.78.
2. Divide this by the season’s average goals conceded at home (1.78/1.14) to get a “Defence Strength” of 1.56.
• Liverpool’s Attack Strength at home = 1.50
• Liverpool’s Defence Strength at home = 1.56
Do the same for Manchester City by using the average away goals to get:
• Manchester City Attack Strength away = 2.03
• Manchester City Defence Strength away = 1.03
Now use the following formula to calculate the number of goals Liverpool might score.
This is done by multiplying Liverpool’s ‘Attack Strength’ by Manchester City’s ‘Defence Strength’ and the average number of home goals in the English Premier League.
1.50 x 1.03 x 1.53 = 2.36
Liverpool is expected to score 2.36 goals per game at home against Manchester City.
To calculate the number of goals Manchester City might score.
This is done by multiplying Manchester City’s ‘Attack Strength’ by Liverpool’s ‘Defence Strength’ and the average number of away goals in the English Premier League.
2.03x 1.56 x 1.14 = 3.6
Manchester City is expected to score 3.6 goals per game.
What we need to do now is use the ‘Poisson Distribution’ formula excel kindly supplies you with.
Poisson = (x, mean, cumulative)
X = Number of Goals
Mean = Goal Expectancy
Cumulative = Set to “FALSE” so that the formula returns a value equal to the number of goals
I’ve done this for you:
If there are two percentages that are close together, no huge difference, then you have a good likely hood that both teams will score 3 goals.
Meaning the game could hypothetically end in a 3:3 stalemate.
You still have to do your other research such as player injury, home or away, recent performance things like that.
But now you have a good idea if the game will end in a stalemate.
Until next time,