How you can profit from perception

by , 21 March 2019
How you can profit from perception
Have you ever looked at two teams and instantly known which one will win?

And then, you look at the odds and they tell you the exact same thing… - the bookie also thinks they will win so you're offered lousy odds.

This perception of which team is likely to win arises because of influences such as:

• Historical dominance
• Home field advantage
• Player injuries and availability
• Coaching and managerial staff

Now what if I told you there was a way to profit from this perception bias.
 
 
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Here’s how it works…
 
With soccer being such a low scoring game, one goal can make a big difference.
 
So bookmakers will generally give a handicap of one goal to the stronger team.
 
For example: a game between Fulham and Liverpool would look like this:
 

 
Liverpool Fc (-1), means that Liverpool will start the game with -1 goal against them, in order for you to win you bet, Liverpool will have to win the game by more than one goal.
 
So a score of Fulham (0) – Liverpool (2). Is a winning bet.
 
Why?
 
Well, Liverpool started the game with -1 goal, so take a goal away from them and the score line looks like this:
 
Fulham (0) – Liverpool (1).
 
Liverpool still win, in the eyes of the bookie and so do you!
 
What’s the point of using the handicap Market over the outright Market?
 
Simple…
 
If we had bet on Liverpool to win outright, our return would look something like this:
 
 
 
Liverpool to win outright at odds of 0.25 would give you a return of:
 
R100 x 0.25 = R25
 
A measly R25 return…. Not exactly what we want.
 
However when we look at the Handicap Market with Liverpool Fc (-1) at odds of 0.7.
 
Our return would have more than doubled.
 
R100 x 0.7 = R70!
 
This is the power of the Handicap Market.
 
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Two types of Handicap bets to be aware of:
 
1. Level Handicap
 
A level handicap is when there is no perceived difference in strength, so no handicap bias is assigned.
 
In order to win a bet, the bettor must simply back the team they think will score more goals than their opponent. This type of handicap eliminates the draw, meaning all bets are refunded if the game ends in a draw. 
 
2. Single Handicap
 
A single handicap occurs when there is a perceived difference in strength.
 
The stronger team will be given the appropriate goal handicap, Team A (-1), to level the playing field.
 
So in order to win the bet the team with the negative one goal handicap must win by more than one goal to cover their handicap and win you your bet.
 
Now that you know handicap betting can be used to increase your profits, don’t miss out on our next profitable betting opportunity.
 
Until next time,
Christopher Ammon,
Head Tippster, The Winning Streak Team


How you can profit from perception
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