Last week I wrote about never letting a good crisis go to waste. It's one of the most difficult things for investors to do while you're in the thick of it. You don't want to deploy capital when things look like they are going to get worse, much worse. But that is the precise time to “slowly drip” capital into the market. It's an investors primary focus to look past the noise to see opportunity.
Right now, investors are rating SA junk status, they are shying away from local assets causing stock prices to fall lower and the Rand to weaken significantly in the past two weeks. We told you to buy the USD against the Rand at R13.90 and it has paid off handsomely. The time is now to be banking some of your profits.
We should see a relief rally build in into the end of the week, but the global risk are still high, we have tensions in Hong Kong, President Trump still having his “Tariff Tantrum” and a Turkish central bank with no independence. If Turkey decreases interest rates again, we could see Emerging markets get hit by another bout of currency weakness.
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Domestic uncertainty creates bargain bin of SA stocks
Now add the domestic risks and uncertainty investors face and you can see why local and foreign investors are lumping SA in the junk status basket. Sir John Templeton once responded to a question of where the best place is to invest in, with “tell me where there is the most pessimism and I will tell you where to invest”.
Several of our listed companies are making fresh 52-week lows, just when you think some of these large companies couldn’t get cheaper, they do. Companies like Firstrand, Truworths, PSG, Remgro, Nedbank, and Shoprite to name a few are all at fresh lows.
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The week ahead:
• Local: Manufacturing: Retail trade sales (14/08)
• Local Results Due: ABG, ABSP, SBV (13/08), COH; MTA (14/08), ARH, CLH, EPS, EPS, EMI, GFI, TRU (15/08), ADI, RES (16/08)
• International Earnings Results: Tencent (14/08); Alibaba, Walmart (15/08)
• LDT: ADR, AGL, KIO, MNP (13/08)
Other Economic data releases of interest…
• Monday: Services PMI (UK); ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, FOMC Member Brainard Speaks (USA); Unemployment Rate, Inflation Expectations (NZL)
• Tuesday: FOMC Member Bullard Speaks (USA); Official Cash Rate, RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement, RBNZ Rate Statement (NZL); Cash Rate, RBA Rate Statement (AUS)
• Wednesday: FOMC Member Evans Speaks (USA); RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks (AUS); RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks (NZL); Trade Balance (CNY)
• Thursday: CPI (CNY); RBA Gov Lowe Speaks, RBA Monetary Policy Statement (AUS)
• Friday: Core PPI (USA); Unemployment Rate (CAN); GDP, Manufacturing Production (UK)
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