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How does over under betting work?
Over under betting has been found in most sports, you can bet on the number of points in football, rugby and soccer just to name a few.
To better understand the over under market here is an example:
Let’s say Liverpool are playing Chelsea. The bookmaker will offer odds on whether the match will end with a total of over 2.5 goals (3 goals or more) or end under a total of 2.5 goals ( 2 goals or less).
If you bet on the over, the game must end with a total of 3 goals or more. If you bet on the under, the game must end with a total of 2 goals or less.
You may think so, but this type of market can become tricky, depending on the sport you choose.
However, here are five things to consider when betting on the over under market.
1. Last week doesn’t count for much
Yes, recent form is important, but it doesn’t count as much as most people think.
Time and time again people refer to a team’s recent form in the last three or four weeks.
But to obtain a true assessment of a team’s potential to score you have to look deeper and take a much longer view.
Consider how the team has scored over the last 20 games opposed to just there last four.
So while recent form is important when making your decision, don’t get caught and become easily seduced by a team’s recent run of high or low scoring.
And on that point, it’s the naïve sports bettor who is often seduced by recent form.
For those of you looking to find out a team’s true scoring potential, don’t succumb to the knee-jerk reaction from a mere two or three week of form – look deeper.
2. Monitor occurrences, not averages
This is another fatal error naïve sports bettors seem to fall for and it’s constantly quoting scoring averages when assessing a particular match.
Averages are great when analysing a large sample size with score lines of limited variance. However, the problem comes in when looking at a sample size of just 15 matches.
This can become a big problem as one irregular result can distort the average and in the end you final decision.
Take a look at this example:
If Liverpool have played 15 games at home and scored a total of 45 goals, that’s an average of 3 goals per match.
This looks tempting and the over 2.5 might seem like a promising bet.
However, when looking deeper, we see that of those 15 games played, two of them were particularly high scoring. One game has 4-2 and another a 5-1 result. That is a combined total of 12 goals scored.
Those two games have severely distorted the average, which would be 2.53 in the other 13 games.
What looks like an easy pay-day, suddenly seems like a money trap.
So while averages are great for large sample sizes, it’s always better to track occurrences rather than averages.
And by occurrences, I mean how many times has a team gone over or under a particular goal total?
You may find out that a team has only gone over 2.5 goals 50% of the games played at home.
So even though the average is 3 goals per game, but the over 2.5 occurrence has only been 50% - would you still bet on the over?
This leads me to my next point.
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3. Don’t stray from the path
Once you have established your over under betting strategy, don’t start getting too smart and over estimating your own skill.
Stick to the basics, if you have a good track record with over under 2.5 goals, stick to it.
If you do however find value in betting on a higher goal total, by all means take it.
But, in general, I encourage you to stay on the path and stick to your basics. You’ll find your results will be more consistent.
4. Identify scoring potential
Identifying a team’s scoring potential takes deeper research than just analysing the score line.
When you are attempting to analyse a team’s true scoring potential you will need to look at statistics that gives an overall indication of a team’s base form.
Looking at stats such as:
• Shots on goal
• Shots on target
• Shot conversion rates
These are just a few stats you can look at to get a better picture of a team’s true scoring potential.
Having a deeper understanding of a team’s scoring potential can give you a better edge over the bookmaker.
And you will reap the rewards.
5. Never underestimate the situation
Considering the situation the two teams may be in is important when betting on the over under market.
Looking at what a particular team has done in similar situations could give you insight into what they may do now.
When playing a team far inferior, do they use the opportunity to run up the score or do they do the minimum to win?
You can also broaden the spectrum, by looking at the entire league.
Are matches higher scoring in the beginning of the season or towards the end?
These questions need to be taken into account when analysing a potential bet. And can often give you an edge over the bookmaker.
So there you have it.
The five thing to consider the next time you take the over or the under.
Until next time,
Head Tipster, The Winning Streak Team