# Psst… Want to hear the secret to beating the bookies in the under/over market?

by , 27 February 2020

As a professional soccer bettor, I am always looking for others ways to make money than just betting on a win.

With soccer being such a low scoring game, a late equaliser can deny even the best judgements of a potential winning bet.

That's where the under/over goals market comes in.

And the best part is, I've compressed this little known secret into three simple steps that have consistently seen my members and myself win bets week after week.

So without further ado, let's get started…

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Make Double Your Money Without Knowing a Thing

If you can follow simple instructions, then I’ll show you how to consistently make money no matter what the markets are doing.

You won’t have to do research. And you won’t need to worry about support lines or resistance points… Unless you really want to.

All you have to do is relax and watch your money grow.

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Secret step 1: Finding the average number of goals per game

When it comes to comparing goals or points in most sports, soccer is less frequent and it is certainly not uncommon for a game to end with zero goals scored.

The best place to start is with the same method as the bookmakers - by finding the average number of goals per game for the two teams involved in the match you are interested in betting on.

This is generally an easy statistic to research online. To provide some detail, here are the average goals per game for several major soccer leagues and competitions during the last two seasons.

As the above table highlights, major soccer leagues and competitions have predominantly averaged between 2.5 and 3 goals per game in recent years, although any given league or competition should be considered on an individual basis.

Secret step 2: Calculate the probabilities

The random nature of goal scoring enables statistics to follow a poisson distribution as a simple predictive model for Under/Over betting.

Here is a drafted table that calculates the probabilities of a team scoring none, one, two, three or four or more goals based on their average number of goals per game:

For a match where the home team has averaged 1.2 goals per game and the away side have averaged 0.8, it is easy to determine the probability for under 2.5 goals occurring by using the above table.

Firstly, determine the correct scores that will lead to a winning under 2.5 goals bet (0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0, and 0-2). You can then find the respective probabilities for each team from the above table and multiply them together to calculate the probability for each score line:

Since we know the individual probabilities of each potential score that can lead to under 2.5 goals occurring, we can add them together to get the overall probability of the match ending in under 2.5 goals and, therefore, a winning under 2.5 goals bet.

In this example, that would be:

13.5% + 16.2% + 10.8% + 12.96% + 9.9% + 4.2% = 67.5%

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Secret step 3: Determine what odds are worth betting on…

Once you have established the statistical probability of the match to end in less than 2.5 goals, you are then in a position to determine which odds you should accept.

To convert probability into decimal odds, you use the following simple formula:

Decimal odds = 100 / probability

In the above example, a 67.56% possibility corresponds to an equation of 100 / 67.56, which equates to decimal odds of 1.48.

This means that you should only bet on under 2.5 goals for a match if you find a bookie offering odds of higher than 1.48.

If the bookie doesn’t offer odds that match or are higher than 1.48 then it’s in your best interest to look elsewhere.

So there you have it…

Three simple steps to beat the bookie in the under/over market!

Until next time,
Christopher Ammon,
The Winning Streak Team