How much money are we talking about?
The GEPF has R1, 67 Trillion worth of assets.
It is by far the biggest player in the South African investment space. If they move from holding less than 10% offshore to holding 40%, this would mean a shift of over R500 Billion.
By comparison, most analysts believe a downgrade to junk would cause only between R100 Billion and R150 Billion worth of outflows.
Having 40% offshore exposure is not an extreme position. The largest pension fund in the world, the Government Pension Fund of Japan has a target of 40% for foreign bonds and shares.
Number 2, Norway actually has most of its investments outside of the country. The GEPF is actually rather unusual compared to larger global pension funds with its tiny offshore holdings.