The aim of any sports bettor is to make accurate predictions of what is likely to happen during an event.
A common mistake most sports bettors make when trying to predict a game of soccer, is trying to predict everything. From the result of the match, number of corners, will both teams score, under/over; the list just goes on and on…
Instead of trying to predict everything, focusing on one aspect in a game will lead to better results.
Today I'm going to show you how I do it and how I've achieved an average winning bet rate of 60% of the time!
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Be aware of randomness and luck
Although randomness and luck are hard to quantify, they play an important role in the outcome of your predictions.
Soccer is arguably the one sport most susceptible to randomness. Since soccer has such a low scoring nature, the difference between a win, draw or loss could be determined by the randomness of the bounce of a ball.
While it is difficult to account for luck when making your predictions, you should account for luck in your results.
Our natural reaction is attributing a correct prediction to skill while we attribute an incorrect prediction to bad luck, in reality this isn’t the case.
So in conclusion being aware of randomness and luck is the first step to making accurate soccer predictions.
Focus on what you want to predict
The more time, energy and focus you apply to one aspect of the game the better your chances will be of a correct prediction.
Do this repeatedly and you’ll end up mastering one aspect of the game. That will lead you to a higher success rate in the long term.
Why the past is as important as the future
With sports betting you are trying to predict the outcome of a future event and it is the past that provides us with the best indicators to do just that.
We get our data and indicators from past events.
• A team’s form
• Goals scored away
• Goals scored at home
All of these indicators get their data from past events.
You can also create your own metrics from past performance.
A popular metric used by most sports bettors is Poisson Distribution
, for example you can use Poisson Distribution to determine where two teams’ average number of goals scored and conceded per game can be used against the league average to calculate the most likely score-line in an upcoming match.
In short, it gives a probability in percentages of how many goals are likely to be scored.
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Set your goals, measure your successes and adapt to overcome adversity
The difficulty when making soccer predictions shouldn’t be underestimated.
There are steps you should take when making these predictions to make them more accurate. Before you start you need a clear aim of what you want to try and predict and how you intend to do it.
Information and data are crucial when it comes to sports betting, this will then help build a sports betting model that can be used to test your predictions and see if they make a profit.
Whether or not you make profit using your model, it needs to be constantly refined, maintained and continually tested to ensure long-term success.
And by following this simple strategy, you can achieve long term success from sports betting.
Until next time,
The Winning Streak Team