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What is the Halo Effect and how does it affect your judgment

by , 06 June 2019
What is the Halo Effect and how does it affect your judgment
When we bet, we usually bet intuitively.

Meaning we rely on what we know and feel about a particular team or player and make an on-the-spot judgment of the chances of success.

While Intuition is great at instantly assessing if someone is upset or angry at you, it's not great when assessing whether a team or player will successfully win their respective matches.

The Halo Effect is a big reason why…
 
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What is the Halo Effect?
 
Take a look at the following two people and judge them based on their characteristics:
 
John: Intelligent – Industrious – Impulsive – Critical – Stubborn – Envious
  
Sam: Envious – Stubborn – Critical – Impulsive – Industrious – Intelligent
 
At first glance most people will think that John has more favourable characteristics than Sam. This is odd given that their list of characteristics are identical and are just presented in reverse.
 
Instead of acknowledging the fact that the only difference is the order in which the information is received, our ‘lazy’ side of the brain seeks to find consistency in evaluating information in order to quickly build a narrative.
 
This is often what our minds do and at a cost.
 
Looking at John’s first positive trait – Intelligence – Inclines us to believe the latter traits to support this view and vice- versa with envious Sam.
 
This is known as the Halo Effect.
 
What has this got to do with sports betting?
 
If we were to change the example from John and Sam to two soccer teams and the traits to results or performances. It becomes easy to see how our judgment are biased by the order in which information is acquired, and the significance of that particular performance.
 
This kind of bias isn’t isolated and people easily become victim to another pitfall in our brain and that is the availability bias which leads us to place greater disproportional significance to events that are easiest to recall.
 
Availability is largely linked to the strength of our emotional response to events, which is greater when they make a more lasting impression.
 
So with this knowledge of the halo effect and the availability bias what can be done?
 
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Lessons to learn from the halo effect and availability bias
 
Our mind is a wonderful and powerful tool and often saves our lives by perceiving danger. However, it has a real weakness when it comes to statistical assessment.
 
The trick of the trade is to force your mind into action.
 
And you can do this by:
 
Deliberately looking for two to three counter arguments to your judgment
Deploy as much objective data with as big a sample size as possible
Ignore mainstream media which often seeds simplistic narratives
 
The real lesson is not that you have learnt a new fact, but that your understanding of situations you encounter has evolved.
 
Employ the above and you’ll soon see your sports betting results lean in your favour.
 
Until next time,
Christopher Ammon,
Head Tipster, The Winning Streak Team
 
P.S: This weekend sees the start of the Cricket World Cup! – Join The Winning Streak today and profit from the Cricket World Cup!


What is the Halo Effect and how does it affect your judgment
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