Monitoring line movement can provide you with a simple evaluation of the market.
While understanding why the bookmakers make these small adjustments can be beneficial to sports bettors.
However, a common mistake is to base betting decisions on line movements alone.
This leads you to misinformation and can distort your final betting decision.
In today's article I want to explain the pitfalls of relying solely on line movements and the dangers of reverse line movements.
Let's get started…
From the man who bought bitcoin for just $12…
“If you want to make a killing from cryptocurrencies – read this book as FAST as you bloody can!”
Anyone with a tiny stake to spare could reap thousands – even tens of thousands of rands – from this erupting financial market.
That’s why I’ll rush out your personal digital copy for just R100.
That’s it. For a limited time, R100 is all it costs to get your guide to the biggest wealth creation event in history…
Why do bookmakers move lines?
Have you ever wondered why odds change on a day to day even hour to hour basis?
You may have your eye on a particular team or individual, and a day or even an hour later the odds have changed?
Well bookmakers offer odds in order to attract an equal amount of money on both sides of the market and make a profit by applying a margin to the odds they offer.
If the bookie gets an uneven amount of money on a particular game, they will adjust the odds they offer (increase one side to attract money and shorten the other side to make it less attractive) in an effort to balance the book and reduce their liability and potential loss.
Bookmakers pay close attention to the bets placed by customers who are known to be very knowledgeable about what they are betting on. When assessing the market, bookmakers will take customers betting habits in to consideration.
For example, if a knowingly unsuccessful sports bettor who typically bets with a reasonable amount of money, suddenly places a large bet of R50,000, the bookmaker may decide to refrain from changing the odds despite the large liability – they are essentially taking the risk that this bettor is wrong.
However, if a sports bettor who is known to regularly bet R5,000 on a game, the bookmaker may decide to adjust the odds accordingly based on this information.
What is reverse line movement?
Reverse line movements refer to the odds movement that contradicts betting percentages in the market.
This is when the majority of the bets placed on one side yet the line moves in the opposite direction.
This is why it is crucial to realise that betting percentages are not related to the total amount of money wagered on a game, but rather the number of bets taken on each side.
The challenge that sports bettors face when using reverse line movements as part of their sports betting strategy is being able to determine the amount of money staked on each side of the market and which side the more knowledgeable bettors favour.
In summary, placing bets that are solely based on line movements and reverse line movements alone is a problematic sports betting strategy.
Using traditional strategies and betting models such as Poisson Distribution or Bayesian analysis that consider a multitude of factors is still the proven way to beat the bookie and become a profitable sports bettor.
Until next time,
Head Tipster, The Winning Streak Team
P.S: Join the elite 2%
and secure impressive wins from the 2019 ICC Cricket World Cup