The Rand followed the technical pattern in textbook fashion last week banking 3.5% ungeared. That's 35% using futures and as much as 350% on margin if you were trading CFDs.
Right now the Rand is at a crucial technical level as support on the USD/ZAR builds at R16.40.
Look at the chart below to see where the Rand could be headed next…
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Here’s where the rand is headed!
The Rand should bounce from support and weaken towards the resistance line of the flag pattern around R16.90. But we expect a possible push through to above R17.15. This would be on the uncertainty in the market.
There’s uncertainty around Donald Trump’s health due to his COVID-19 infection and the lack of “honesty and transparency” from his doctors. A deadlock in additional stimulus funding that could extend beyond next months elections.
And a general, deterioration in the global growth outlook as northern hemisphere countries assess additional lock down restrictions due to spiking COVID-19 infections.
Short term Trade Idea: Long the USD/ZAR
Traders with derivative accounts should take an appropriate size position going long the USD/ZAR pair for a rally towards R17.00. A stoploss at R16.35 will keep it away from unnecessary volatility and target should be R17.00.
Trail your stoploss lower as it breaks though the support levels of R16.90, 16.80 and R16.60.
Make sure to trade an appropriate size position for your portfolio.
NOTE: Investors looking to externalise funds should do so now after the strong pull back in the USD/ZAR.
See you next week.
Contributing Editor, Money Morning