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Is a gold bull market around the corner?

by , 19 June 2014

The current bear market for the price of gold is in its 127th week. For about two years, the gold price has struggled. So surely the price of the yellow metal is due some respite? Surely a new gold bull market is just around the corner? Let's take a closer look at what could be in store for the price of gold…

What happened to the gold price in the past?

Over the past 44 years, of the five major bear markets in gold, two have been longer than the current one and three have been shorter.

By looking at these bear markets, unless we’re into a lengthy bear market like the one witnessed between 1987 and 1993, there shouldn’t be too much longer to wait.

Out of these bear markets, the average drop in the price of gold was 45%, Dominic Frisby in Money Morning UK explains. The current bear market is down 36%. So looking at it in average terms, the price might still have further to fall.

The current bear market could be nearing an end

When you compare this bear market to ones in the past, this one appears to be mature. So the end is probably not far away. We could even have seen the worst.

Over the last couple of months, the price of gold hasn’t really done that much. It’s been hovering either side of $1,300.

Gold-backed exchange traded funds (ETFs) are still being sold off. This is a good bullish sign. The more money that leaves the gold market, the more of it that has to come back.

Also, notably, along with the flat price is low volatility and a lack of interest in gold. These are the sort of characteristics that can mark the end of a bear market.

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So where to now for the price of gold?

Over the next month or two, don’t expect the price of gold to do much. If anything it will drift lower. But for the longer-term, things could be looking up for gold.

And by looking at historical data, the gold bear market is looking likely to end soon.

So there you have it, why a gold bull market may be around the corner.



Is a gold bull market around the corner?
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