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Opec is cutting supply and the oil price is set to rise
Early on Monday last week, we saw the price of oil break through that $70 psychological level. This is the highest price level we've seen it, since November 2018.
This was due to three main factors.
Factor 1: Opec cutting supply four months in a row
To raise the oil price, Opec and Russia (non-affiliated ally) have started to hold around 1.2 million barrels per day of the supply in 2019.
“Excess inventories are disappearing”, and “the market is poised for prices to rise to $75 per barrel or higher for Brent oil” said Energy consultancy FGE
Factor 2: More optimism with the trade wars
With the optimism on the US-China trade talks, this is helping to buoy the demand.
Even US bank JP Morgan mentioned in a note:
“Brent prices increased more than 30% year-to-date as Opec+ continued to cut supply for four months in a row and optimism over US-China trade talks helped to buoy the demand"
Factor 3: A slowdown in supply with the global sanctions
Also with the ongoing US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela and with the military action in Libya, we can continue to see a halt in the supply of oil. The FGE also said;
“Sanctions can cut 500,000 bpd of Venezuelan exports. Add that to a cut in Iran waivers and prices can rise substantially,” Economically speaking, when there is a decrease in supply the demand rises which means the prices pick up.
With these catalysts in play, the bulls (buyers) will continue to drive the Brent Crude oil price up in 2019.
As a trader, I'm looking for a short-term boost in price, all thanks to a triangle formation.
During this short-term boost, we can make quick profits from the rise of oil. To explain this better, let's look at the chart.
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Brent Crude is set to rise to $83.30
In the above weekly chart, you can see that there's been a large consolidated triangle forming since June 2014 (Pink lines).
Since then we have seen the prices constrict down to an apex with higher low prices and lower high prices (White lines).
Recently the Brent Crude price bounced off its most recent low on 24 December 2018 at $50 per barrel.
And now that it has bounced off the support level, we can clearly see that the price is on the way back to the top of the triangle at $83.30.
For this reason, I am extending my Brent Crude price target from $76.60 up to $83.30 where we can profit even more.
You can either buy the Brent Crude CFDs and hold until it hits the target of $83.30.
Or you can
wait for my SMS as I wait for resource companies that rise in price when oil goes up. I'm talking about companies like Sasol, Exxaro, Anglo American and others.
“Wisdom yields Wealth”
Timon Rossolimos,
Analyst, Red Hot Storm Trader
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