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Why I don't care about suspended shares!

by , 18 June 2019
Why I don't care about suspended shares!
Wow!

What a month it's been, especially last week!

We saw giant companies like Tongaat, Lonmin and Basil Read suspend their shares.

These are companies that have been around 30 to 127 years and now they're being taken off the JSE.

And despite this mass culling, the JSE is still rising to new highs.

In this article we'll briefly catch you up on what happened in June with the major suspensions and why I expect the JSE to rally over 17% in the next two months.
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Goodbye Basil
 
Basil Read (one of South Africa's biggest construction companies) was suspended after being listed for 32 years.
 
This was after the company applied for a business rescue package. Management then requested for the suspension of the company. 
 
Goodbye Sugar
 
Tongaat was founded over 127 years ago. It is South Africa's largest sugar producer which is now in the doldrums. The company issued a statement that suggested an overstated equity of the business between R3.5 billion and R4.5 billion.  
 
The company admitted its financials can't be trusted and asked the JSE to suspend trading while auditors go through their books. 
 
Goodbye Lonmin 
 
Lonmin shares were suspended in London and South Africa on Monday morning. The company just didn't have the capital to fund any of the growth projects going forward.  
 
Van der Merwe (CFO) estimated they need at least $500 million in the bank while financial institutions have put serious conditions on the money that was lent to Lonmin.
 
This story however, does have a comforting ending (or might I say beginning).  
 
Over the last 18 months following challenging discussions with mining unions, wage talks and negotiations on the takeover between Lonmin and Sibanye-Stilwater, the takeover is officially completed. 
 
The merged company with combined assets in SA, Zimbabwe and in the U.S makes it now the largest platinum producer in South Africa and a part of the world’s largest platinum producer.  
 
So where do I see profits?
 
With huge companies being suspended left, right and centre, many traders are nervous and are choosing to steer clear…
 
Not me!
 
In fact, despite all that is going on, I predict that…
 
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The JSE is set to rocket over 17%

 
 
Looking at the daily chart of the JSE Top 40, you can see that in the last few weeks we’ve seen it rise from 48,200 up to over 53,000. And this is just the beginning of the rally.
 
You see, since August 2018, the JSE has been forming a solid break out pattern called a Cup and Handle (red line)
 
Right now, the JSE is rallying back to its brim level (ceiling level) at 53,850 (black line).
 
This tells me the buyers are pushing the price higher and higher, which will eventually pierce through the brim level.   
 
Once we see the price break up, momentum to the demand and upside will pick up even more which could send the JSE Top 40 all the way to 63,370.
 
To find this target we’ll use the Top-Down formula which simply calculates the price difference between the Top and the Bottom of the pattern and adds it to the Top price level – as so...
 
Price target   = (Top - Bottom) + Top
                   = (53,850 – 44,330) + 53,850
                   = 63,370
 
With the JSE going up, we'll need to simply buy the stocks that correlate with it such as the banks, resources and the retailers.  
 
 
“Wisdom yields Wealth”
Timon Rossolimos,
Analyst, Red Hot Storm Trader
 
P.S: If you have a trading question or would like my opinion on a chart analysis feel free to ask me by clicking here.  


Why I don't care about suspended shares!
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