Boost your bankroll with this simple equation

by Chris Ammon, The Winning Streak Team, 22 September 2017
Boost your bankroll with this simple equation
Maths is your best friend when it comes to sports betting, but I am not trying to scare you with trigonometry or the Analytic Continuation of the Factorial.

I have no idea what those are and to be honest if it doesn't put money in my bank account, I don't care.

However, there are some mathematical equations worth knowing about, and some that are just plain crucial to the long-term success of your bankroll.

Let me explain…


Hidden potential in the form of implied probability
 
In the competitive world of sports betting, understanding the probability behind the odds offered by the bookies is crucial to the long-term success of your bankroll.
 
Therefore, in saying that, implied probability is the simple conversion of your traditional odds into a percentage.
 
It also takes into consideration the house edge and eliminates it to show odds as the “true odds” that your chosen outcome will happen.
 
Since there are three traditional forms of odds:
1. Decimal Odds
2. Fractional Odds
3. Money line/American Odds
 
Here is how to convert them.

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Converting decimal odds
 
Decimal odds are in my opinion the best to work with, as they simple reflect the return you will receive for each point staked.
 
For example, Bulls vs the Cheetahs.
 
The Bulls are priced at 1.65 to win, meaning if you placed R1,000 for the Bulls to win, you will receive R650 profit.
 
To convert the odds into a probability, we use this simple calculation.
 
1 / decimal odds
 
Implied probability=1 / 1.65 
                           =0.606
 
Multiplied by 100 to get the percentage value of 60.6%.
 
Therefore, the bulls priced at odds of 1.65 have an implied probability of 60.6% to win the game.

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Converting Fractional odds
 
Fractional odds can be seen as the return you will receive for a particular amount.
 
For example, if Liverpool is priced at 12/5 for their outcome to win, the odds tell you that for every 5 points staked you will receive 12 back as profit.
 
To simplify this, if you bet R500 you will get R1,200 back as profit plus your R500 original stake.
 
To convert the odds into a probability, we use this simple calculation.
 
Denominator / Denominator + Numerator
 
Fractional odds=12/5
 
Implied probability=5 / (12+5)
                           =5 / 17
                           =0.294
 
Multiplied by 100 to get the percentage value of 29.4%.

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Converting money line odds
 
Money line odds, also known as “American Odds” are probably foreign to you, unless you bet on American dominated sports such as the NFL or the UFC.
 
There are two ways the Americans represent these odds.
 
- 140
 
+180
 
But what does this mean?
 
If we look at the first money line (-140), this is essentially just saying in order to win $100 you have to bet $140.
 
Simple right?
 
Well, let us look at the second money line (+180), this means if you bet $100 you will essentially win $180.
 
Now we can convert them into their respective implied probabilities.
 
Let us start with the (-) Money line of -140
 
Implied probability=(-(-140) / ((- (-140)) + 100)
                           =140 / (140 + 100)
                           =140 / 240
                           =0.583
 
Multiplied by 100 to get the percentage value of 58.3%.
 
Converting (+) Money line of +180
 
Implied probability=100 / (180 +100)
                           =100 / 280
                           =0.357
 
Multiplied by 100 to get the percentage value of 35.71%.
 
Now you can convert any of these three traditional forms of odds before making your final decision.
 
As my mentor always said, “The best bet is always the informed one”.

Author Note: Enjoyed this sports betting article, you'll love these!
  
• A simple way to bet on the Super Rugby and win big
  Written by Chris Ammon - The Winning Streak 
• Here's why Rugby Handicaps yield a better return
  Written by Chris Ammon, The Winning Streak
 



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