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Coronavirus + Eskom + Moody's + Chart = Rand disaster

by , 24 February 2020
Coronavirus + Eskom + Moody's + Chart = Rand disaster
It's been a terrible start for the rand.

Last week we saw it hit R15.00, dropping it down over 6.07% for the year.

According to Bloomberg, the rand was the second-worst performing currency out of the 24 emerging-market currencies world-wide.

And it looks like this is only the beginning.

In today's article we'll discuss the four reasons why I expect the rand to plunge to R16.00 to the dollar and what we can do to profit from the fall.
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Reason #1:
The global health emergency is killing emerging markets
 
On Thursday, the WHO (World Health Organisation) declared the Coronavirus as a global health emergency.  
 
This was due to the virus spreading to over 28 countries, infecting over 72,000 people and taking over 1,700 lives in mainland China.  
 
TreasuryOne analysts in a note said, 
 
“The coronavirus remains the main driver in markets at the moment, with the rising number of infections and deaths being offset by the WHO.”
 
With there being no slowdown of the virus, emerging markets including the rand, will continue to feel the negative effects.  
  
Reason #2:
Moody's is set to downgrade SA to junk
 
March is coming and so is Moody’s, who’ll be giving South Africa another rating on its credit…
 
And it’s not looking promising…
 
Analysts as well as Moody’s Investors Service have dropped their economic growth forecasts, which raised the risk that South Africa is now likely to be downgraded. 
 
If this happens, it will eject SAGBs (South African Government Bonds from the World Government Bond Index, as South Africa will no longer be in the investment-grade rating (Baa3). 
 
If South Africa enters junk status, we'll see investors sell their bonds, local stocks and their rands very quickly which will cause the currency to weaken even further. 
 
Even BNP Paribas said,
 
“We think a sovereign downgrade by Moody’s would knock business and consumer confidence further.”
 
Reason #3:
Eskom is killing our GDP
 
Not only is load-shedding resulting in one too many cold candle-light dinners, it's also taking its toll on the mining and industrial sectors.  
 
In fact, recent economic indicators suggest that the ongoing power outages are weighing down on:
 
- Business and consumer confidence
 
- Manufacturing and 
 
- Mining output
 
Which, to make matters worse, Moody’s said that they are lowering their GDP forecast in September from 1.5% down to 0.7% in 2020. 
 
This outlook will have an impact on the South African economy which will drop the demand for the South African rand causing it to weaken even further.  
 
And guess what? The charts agree..
 
Reason #4:
Why this triangle shape is bad news for the rand
 
 
Looking at the daily chart of the US dollar against the South African rand (USD/ZAR), we can see it's been moving in a strong ascending triangle pattern (Shaded area) since July 2018.
 
This is one of the breakout patterns I use to analyse the markets.
 
What you need to know is that with an ascending triangle, you’ll see prices make higher lows and hit the same level highs, until it reaches the apex of the triangle…
 
Now that the price has just broken above the high of R14.92, we can expect the USD/ZAR to continue up…  
 
With the negative fundamental factors in effect and with the buyers of the US dollar dominating the market, our next target for the USD/ZAR is set to head to its next resistance (ceiling level) at R16.00.
 
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Here’s how to profit from the rand plunge…
 
First, you can sell (go short) USD/ZAR CFDs and hold it until it hits my first target of R16.00
 
Or
 
Second, you can wait for my next SMS where I'll send you stocks that fly when the rand weakens. I'm talking about resource stocks like Anglo American, Billiton and Kumba Iron Ore which all make their money by exporting in dollars. 
 
Trade well,
Timon Rossolimos,
Analyst, Red Hot Storm Trader
 
P.S: A small group of savvy South African traders are pocketing fast gains like 389%, 135% and even 52% in the global financial markets. You can find out how here…


Coronavirus + Eskom + Moody's + Chart = Rand disaster
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