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The civil unrest is going to hurt the rand
With the ongoing unrest in Gauteng, KZN and East London to start, we have seen the rand take a nose dive.
This all started when former President Zuma was arrested for corruption charges.
This has resulted in not only political turmoil, but also an opportunistic catalyst that has led to the ongoing rioting and looting in the streets, retail stores, malls and other buildings.
There have already been estimates of R15 billion plus rands worth of damage, which adds onto the ‘already’ struggling economy.
If this continues, we could have a ‘State of an emergency’. As at the last announcement 25000 SANDF will be deployed to KZN and Gauteng to help contain the unrest.
And so, it’s normal for foreign direct investors and multinationals to flee South Africa, which will take a big knock on the rand.
COVID-19 Cases continue above the 13,000+ average a day mark
On top of all this, we still have the pandemic to deal with.
Vaccinations aren’t taking off like in the UK and the US.
All of these factors and catalysts, will lead to both local and international investors exiting their positions from their rand.
So yes, bleak…
This is probably one of the most heart wrenching articles I’ve ever written.
I feel we’re just lobsters in a slowly to boil pot….
As traders, there’s nothing we can do but to protect our portfolio and some how make profits from these dire situations for our own security.
Sadly, the charts agree with the downside of the rand to come
The rand has been an absolute star since last year.
It’s strengthened against the US dollar from R19.00 in April 2020 all the way down to R13.42.
Since April 2021, it then went into a consolidation (sideways) pattern, which formed what’s known as an Inverse Head and Shoulder.
Basically, this formation has a right shoulder, head and left shoulder (Shaded area).
Now that the pattern is complete and the price has broken out of the Inverse Head and Shoulders patter, it means we should start seeing buying (of the US dollar against the rand) drive the price higher.
To calculate the price target, we’ll take the difference between the top and bottom of the formation and we’ll add it to the top.
Price target = (High price – Low price) + High price
= (R14.50 – R13.42) + R14.50
This means, we can expect the rand to weaken all the way to R15.58 in the next few weeks.
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Here’s how we’ll profit from the falling rand
There are two main ways you can profit from the weakening rand.
I’ll first decide to go long (buy) the USD/ZAR CFDs and hold it until it hits R15.58 to the US dollar.
Or I’m going to look at buying into the resource and industrial stocks that rise when the rand weakens.
You see, a rising US dollar is positive for resource companies as South Africa is a leading exporter, which gold, platinum, steel and so on are exported to other countries in dollars.
This means, when the rand weakens, resource company’s profits go up which pushes the company’s prices up…
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Chief Strategist, Red Hot Storm Trader