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Why two new vaccines and an Opec deal will pump the oil price over 18% before year-end

by , 24 November 2020
Why two new vaccines and an Opec deal will pump the oil price over 18% before year-end
Pinch me.

I feel like I'm in a dream.

In the span of two weeks we've have good news overflow the markets.

We had Joe Biden win the elections. Then a few days later, two vaccines come out to end the Covid-19 pandemic.

And both local and global markets have rallied over 4% in that time.

And when I went to my charts, I saw a commodity that is ready for an 18% rally.

I'm talking about Brent Crude oil.

In this article, I'm going to share with you three reasons why I expect a major oil rally and how to profit big time before 2020's time is up.

Let me explain...

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Countries are finally tightening oil supply which will drive up the oil price
Last week Tuesday, oil prices shot up because Opec and its allies including Russia came to an agreement to tighten supplies. 
This means, for the first time, they will be easing the oil production.
In fact, the top executives of Russia's oil companies will extend the cuts as-is for three months until March 2021. And if they find the market responds well to the cuts, they will tighten the supply even more. 
This is a simple matter of economics. When supply drops, demand picks up which leads to more investors buying up the prices. 
And already we've seen Brent Crude rise 8% since the news came out. Now we’ll see investors piling into oil futures, before the price is too high. 
Two Vaccines to the world rescue 
Last week we spoke about how Pfizer and BioNtech have confirmed a Covid-19 vaccine with over a 90% effective rate. This was done with a trial period of over 33,700 people.
And the markets loved the news.  Even Brent Crude flew up over 10% going up and over the $43 mark for the first time since 3 September 2020.
And just when you think it couldn't get any better, it just did. 
Last week, drug maker, Moderna Inc. Released their vaccine candidate mRNA-1273 showing an even better effective rate of 94.5%.
This was done over a 33,000-person study.
Best yet, this vaccine is also showing better storage conditions compared to Pfizer’s vaccine.
The markets and the oil prices flew when this news came out.
The days of the pandemic are just about numbered…
This tells us that there is more optimism for the economy and the likelihood that travel and trade will return again.
This is obviously good for oil as we use fuel in just about all travel means, manufacturing and electricity consumption.
Even Goldman Sachs has set their target price for oil to $65 by the end of 2021.
And here's what Rystad Energy’s head of oil markets Bjornar Tonhaugen had to say. 
“Oil prices enjoyed modest gains this morning, as enthusiasm over a new, seemingly more efficient, vaccine has led a new price rally,”
And last but not least, Stephen Gallo, BMO Capital Markets head of European FX Stratefy, said in a note:
"Vaccine-related headlines will dominate the news cycle between now and year-end. Positive news should be supportive for risk appetite (so, by extension, USD negative)"
A massive Triple Bottom formation has just broken
to the upside
In the above daily chart of Brent Crude, we can see that the price has been moving in a sideways range between a high of $43 and a low of $35 per barrel.
During this time, since 3 September, it's been forming a reversal pattern known as a Triple Bottom (shaded area).
This is where the price forms three U shapes (troughs), one after another.
However, you’ll see that every time the market moved up it hit a ceiling level at $43… It did this three times until last week.
Last week, we saw the price break above this level, telling me the buying pressure was on!
And if we consider all the above factors we mentioned today, this confirms that Brent Crude is ready to soar.
To calculate the price target, we'll use the High-Low calculation.
Price target = (High - Low) + High
                      = ($43 - $35) + $43
                      = $51
The next price target for Brent Crude according to the Triple W formation is set to $51.
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Here's how to profit from the 18.6% oil price rally!
First, I'll buy the Brent Crude CFDs and hold it until it hits my target of $51.
Second, I see oil and resource stocks like Sasol and Anglo American are setting up high profitable trades. You can have these live trade signals straight to your phone any day now.
Third, Trader X is priming a number of international trade ideas that will move up when oil starts pumping. Don't miss the next one!
Trade well,
Timon Rossolimos
Managing Editor, Trading Tips

Why two new vaccines and an Opec deal will pump the oil price over 18% before year-end
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