When the market opens today it will officially be in a bear market as the JSE extends the recent sell-off on overnight weakness offshore.
Most of this sell-off has been driven by global politics and rising interest rates in the US, with other developed markets to follow suit.
Retail investors are yet to “Panic” about the value of their portfolios.
... ››› more
Volatility provides buying opportunities, as investors panic sell and then buy after the shares inch higher.
Investors were complacent leading up to last week due to low amounts of volatility experienced in the past two months.
The sell-off caught almost everyone by surprise. But this is a normal function of the market. Over the past 90 years, the S&P 500 has had a 5% decline around every 2... ››› more
We bought into Dischem back in May at R30.50 and added to it in July at R28.00 banking us 12.5% when we closed it at our trailed stop loss.
Today, it has fallen again below R30.00 and support should build at R28.00 with any sell-offs below that level being short lived.
Management provided an update to expected earnings for 2019 that will be a tailwind for the share price to move back above... ››› more
While October was the month we had Black Tuesday in 1929, Black Monday in 1987 and a big sell off in October 2008 post Lehman's collapse, it generally ends the month up.
Over the past 100 years the Dow and S&P have ended positive 62% of the time with an average gain of 0.4% but with heightened vola... ››› more
Following on the theme of buying shares at a discount, today's company is trading at a discount to its net asset value as well as paying over 6.5% in dividends.
You will get paid to patiently wait for the company's share price to return to a premium to its net asset value (NAV).
The biggest reason for the discount is that it failed to comply with credit regulations in the past. These issues... ››› more
Buying shares at a significant discount provides some downside protection.
Knowing you bought R1 of assets for 79 cents gives you comfort, and one investment holding company is trading at exactly that.
While investment holding companies typical trade at a discount to their some of the parts value, when these companies sell or distribute assets, the benefit is received at full market value.
... ››› more
Global markets are riding a rising tide of positivity from hawkish FOMC meeting minutes, US Fed Chair Powell indicating the US economy is strong and a positive US and Mexico trade deal.
Investors shouldn't fear new record highs because historical market data indicates it's a bullish signal. When a new all-time high is achieved, there is a 90% chance of achieving a new all-time high in the four... ››› more
The JSE remains in its consolidation phase but the current Rand weakness has created opportunities to buy some blue chips on the cheap.
The Rand has followed emerging market currencies lower over the past week on the back of concerns in Turkey. The Turkish Lira has more than halved in value as they deal with their own “Nenegate”.
The main reason for the Rand's significant weakness and ... ››› more
The JSE has remained buoyant after falling due to the ANC's EWC announcement last week. It's been range bound since breaking above its previous consolidation phase.
A rally into year-end is still on the cards thanks to several JSE heavy weights earning significant offshore revenue.
Stronger global growth and a rand that is facing headwinds into next year's elections should see earnings inc... ››› more
Trump dialled down his trade war antagonism by pushing for less tariffs with Europe. This saw investors focus on other data which provided support for riskier assets like the Rand.
Last week we had a positive BRICs summit, the ECB held interest rates steady, US advance GDP came out at 4.1% from 2.2% previously, and China indicated a willingness to ease monetary policy further to support domesti... ››› more
Even though President Trump hasn't slowed down on his “Trade War” rhetoric, indicating he would levy tariffs against another $500 billion of Chinese goods, global markets are pushing higher. It's doing this on the back of positive earnings releases. We're almost a fifth of the way through Q2 earnings season and so far, 87% of US companies are beating analyst's forecasts.
When considering a... ››› more
After a wild two weeks, the Top40 is quickly approaching a key resistance level as the US dollar softens. This is on the back of US Jobs data that signals the Fed will hike gradually and that “Trade War” fears have subsided.
This risk on sentiment has seen investors buying the dip and remaining bullish. Last night we had the Dow up almost 1% and the S&P up 0.70%. This will provide some sup... ››› more
The JSE finished the month and quarter with a very strong rally of 3.3% on Friday.
Never the less, that rally was not enough to close the All Share Index in the black for the year-to-date.
Financials, Small and Mid-cap shares are down while resources are up 11.2% year to date.
The market still faces strong headwinds with the US instigated Trade War becoming more hostile, rising yields ... ››› more
The rand has bucked the emerging market currency trend by strengthening 7.6% year to date. The Brazilian Real, Indian Ruppee and Turkish Lira have all weakened over 7%. The Turkish Central bank surprised the market with its 3% interest rate hike last week.
We should see an increase in market and currency volatility leading into Friday's US employment data, which is expected to stay near the 1... ››› more
As earnings season winds down, the market is taking cues from geopolitics and the weekly macro-economic data that comes out.
The biggest boost the markets will receive is from America and China, agreeing to put aside international trade differences to work on a wider agreement. This is very positive and will be a tail wind for markets to rally higher. Add this to the bullish phase global marke... ››› more
Global markets remain robust with no clear signs of a downturn as volatility slowly declines. Investors are buying even the smallest dip, which has seen the market remain in a bullish phase this past week.
On the currency front, we could see gradual rand weakness over the coming months due to the global interest rates rising.
A Federal Reserve member stated:
"Interest rates ... ››› more
Global markets are being held up by strong first quarter earnings releases and US data from last week that signals US inflation is being controlled.
Over 80% of the S&P 500 has released Q1 results and 78% of them have exceeded expectations. If the trend continues it will be the highest proportion of “beats” in almost 10 years.
This earnings growth is keeping valuations in check, the S&... ››› more
The market has remained robust as Trump shifted most of his focus away from a potential trade war with China to Syria.
This helped the market bump higher as it tries to break above its 200-day moving average. The market remains in a bullish phase, while a sustained break above the 200-day moving average around 50,800 could see the market take another rally towards its 2018 high.
Long term ... ››› more
The market sold off strongly last week Wednesday, but only in the morning. This was an opportunity for the market to reset, find a bottom and allow buyers with fresh capital to come in.
The ALSI future came within a couple points of its 200-week moving average, a level which it has bounced from strongly, since 2014.
It's seen a peak to pull back over 14%, that's a healthy correction and cur... ››› more
Global markets typically have a good run in April before the “Sell in May and Go Away” period, but the spike in volatility in February and March has shaken investors. With global markets down year to date, we should see investors buy this dip and a potential run up in April that will make up for 2018's rocky first quarter.
The below graph shows the S&P 500's average monthly return for the ... ››› more
Disclaimer Note that FSP Invest, a division of Fleet Street Publications (Pty) Ltd, is a research house and not a registered broker, financial advisor or financial service provider. Our editors and customer services teams also do not give personal investment advice. The advice in this website is general advice only and may not be appropriate to your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, so before investing or if in any doubt about your personal situation, you should seek professional advice from a stockbroker or independent financial adviser authorised by the Financial Services Board.
We research our recommendations and articles thoroughly, but disclaim all liability for any inaccuracies or omissions found in this publication.
Remember: Never invest more than you can afford to spare and that the value of any investment, and the income derived from it, can go down as well as up. The past is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Editors or contributors may have an interest in investments commented on in this newsletter. However they have signed restraints to prevent the abuse of their position as contributors to this publication.