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  • Inflation has likely peaked - but if it hasn't, we're in trouble.
  • The US consumer price inflation rate (CPI) for June 2022 was released last week, coming in at a shocking 9.1%. By comparison, the number for last year, June 2021, was 4.9%. And back then, this was seen as a huge problem. Remember, the US targets an inflation rate of just 2%. That's the bad news. The good news is we're seeing definite signs the inflation rate is set to fall. US gasoline price... ››› more
  • [21 July 2022]
  • It's the Fed stupid
  • The US Fed is a main player in the world's financial system. As the central bank of the world's largest economy, and thus the institution that controls the world's reserve currency, its rate decisions are always closely watched. However, in the current high inflation environment, it takes on an extra level of significance. I would go as far as to say, that if you are looking to make any type... ››› more
  • [14 July 2022]
  • Special Update: The looming global food crisis. And what to do about it.
  • A few weeks ago, I made a rather extreme prediction. I predicted the world would be entering a period of greater instability triggered specifically by food price increases. Normally I would wait a little longer before writing a follow up, but things are changing rapidly on the ground. Over the last week or so, we've seen upticks in instability across much of the emerging world. Protests have er... ››› more
  • [21 April 2022]
  • Should you be adding protection to your portfolio?
  • There are many economic signals that can accurately predict a recession. A few weeks ago, I wrote about the “inverted yield curve”. It's a very strong predictor that economic growth will contract in the short-term. Rapidly rising oil prices are another excellent indication that recession is hovering just over the horizon. Historically speaking, high inflation combined with low unemp... ››› more
  • [14 April 2022]
  • What makes the best inflation hedge?
  • Everything you read right now is about inflation. It's a major global concern. And it should be your concern too. Because it can seriously erode your wealth. But there is a smart way to inflation-proof your portfolio today...   This relationship automatically makes commodities an effective hedge against inflation That’s because there is a positive relationship between... ››› more
  • [25 January 2022]
  • An investment phenomenon as frightening as a robber in the night is coming for you
  • Ronald Reagan once said it is “as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber, and as deadly as a hitman.” Margaret Thatcher said “inflation is the parent of unemployment and the unseen robber of those who have saved.” The SA Reserve Bank didn't increase interest rates - as it expects inflation to stay in check. Most investors are simply ignoring the threat of inflation,... ››› more
  • [08 April 2021]
  • The Week Ahead - USD Strength on the Cards
  • The Rand weakened significantly last week as it failed to push through the R16 level against the USD. It's now in a flag pattern, which signals longer-term weakness is on the cards. In the near term, we should see the Rand strengthen back to around R16.50. With US elections a little over 4 weeks away, we could see general risk off sentiment as uncertainty of who will win weighs on investor... ››› more
  • [29 September 2020]
  • This one indicator can tell you exactly what's happening in the economy
  • There are hundreds, if not thousands of economic indicators investors like us can look at to gauge how the economy is doing. Employment figures, GDP Growth, CPI, the Trade Balance, these are just a couple of the well-known ones. There are more obscure ones, like the Buttered Popcorn index, the R-word index or the Coupon Redemption index. But you don't need to know all of these. In fact, there'... ››› more
  • [27 August 2020]
  • Time is running out. You need to take action right now!
  • For the first time in nearly 16 years inflation is below the South African Reserve Bank's targeted range. Yesterday, Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) slowed to 2.1%. That's the lowest number since September 2004. Now, you're thinking inflation is low, that's a good thing, right? It's a bit more complicated. Let's explore…   ________________________________________   Di... ››› more
  • [16 July 2020]
  • Buy Naspers before the smart money piles in
  • Naspers result are due on Thursday and we should see buyers push the share price higher into year end. Yesterday's trading update provided some insight into what to expect as it highlighted core earnings from continuing operations will increase between 7% and 10%. Last week Tencent released results, and while it didn't excite traders and investors, it highlighted that a maturing business c... ››› more
  • [19 November 2019]
  • When low cost passive investing becomes expensive
  • Many retail investors are bombarded with ways to invest through exchange traded funds (ETF), most of which passively track an index. The ETF platforms highlight how cheap they are, but in actual fact they aren't cheaper. If you have more than R80,000 in the account, its expensive. The ETF platforms charge between 0.35% and 0.65% ex VAT just for annual admin fees. That's on top of the other fees... ››› more
  • [24 October 2019]
  • Bargain hunting in Bear territory: Issue 2
  • Globally, investor sentiment is at a low, investors on the JSE are no different. They are faced with the same issues and risks as global investors but with the added risks locally. It's not easy being optimistic enough to deploy additional capital but you can stack the odds in your favour by slowly deploying capital into the many JSE “bargains” that periods of sustained pessimism bring. Ba... ››› more
  • [25 September 2019]
  • Buying property at a discount and 12% dividend yield
  • The hunt for yield and aversion to risk is causing something we have never seen before. Interest rates and bond yields are falling globally and have turned negative. You can get a home loan in Denmark at an interest rate of -0.50% per year fixed for 10 years. While we are still far away from that with real rates in positive territory, investors must be tactical in deploying capital.   ... ››› more
  • [17 September 2019]
  • The tide is turning on this small-cap education stock
  • The most lucrative opportunities are found in times of maximum pessimism. Investors just need to filter through the noise for the right shares to invest in, that have potential tail winds in the months and years ahead. Small caps have lost favour with investors. Many are trading at all-time lows while growing profits steadily in these tough economic times. One such share is a little-known ... ››› more
  • [10 September 2019]
  • Bargain hunting in “bear” territory
  • Following on from last week's article where I quoted Sir John Templeton as saying “tell me where there is the most pessimism and I will tell you where to invest”. That describes global equity markets now and more accurately the South African market. Most investors are bearish and pessimism is high. But that doesn't mean you should be buying every stock making 52-week lows or in bargain territo... ››› more
  • [27 August 2019]
  • Investors rank SA Junk status
  • Last week I wrote about never letting a good crisis go to waste. It's one of the most difficult things for investors to do while you're in the thick of it. You don't want to deploy capital when things look like they are going to get worse, much worse. But that is the precise time to “slowly drip” capital into the market. It's an investors primary focus to look past the noise to see opportunity... ››› more
  • [13 August 2019]
  • Never let a good crisis go to waste
  • As Winston Churchill once said “Never let a good crisis go to waste”, we believe investors should be ensuring they have enough exposure to offshore assets that will be a hedge against a “deeper crisis” and should be slowly buying depressed local assets if they have cash on hand. Most investors have been sitting on the sidelines not fully exposed to equities You can't blame local invest... ››› more
  • [06 August 2019]
  • The ZAR's Eskom induced downward spiral
  • I'm sure you have seen the headlines signaling the Rand is on a downward spiral. We highlighted the Rand being at risk of weakness when it was below R13.90 to the USD two weeks ago. It's lost almost 3% but recovering steadily. This bout of weakness is on the back of Eskom's new lifeline of R59 billion, over the next two years. After government committed R69 billion over three years earlier thi... ››› more
  • [30 July 2019]
  • Q&A: What you can ask your broker and how to calculate your trading gain
  • Q. “Other than the technical side of trading, what else can I ask my broker which may help with my trading and investing knowledge and the financial decisions I make for my portfolio?” A. I love this question because I think most people feel intimidated by even talking to their broker. When you phone up your broker, you may ask them a number of investment and trading questions which th... ››› more
  • [24 July 2019]
  • We banked 71% on EOH and 6.24% on our USD/ZAR and it's time to get back in
  • EOH's share price has pulled back and our stop loss at R24 helped us protect 71% of our gains. The share price has pulled back to R20.00 and the company has indicated the forensic inquiry has identified R1.2 billion in suspicious payments. This is not a massive number and signals that the turn around in EOH will materialize over the coming months as Stephen van Coller delivers on his strategy. ... ››› more
  • [23 July 2019]
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