Q. “Hi Timon, I have a R250,000 portfolio and I am using the special 2% risk rule per trade as you have taught us. Based on your last trade with Shoprite with the entry being R242 and your stop loss being R232.00 does this mean I should buy xxx CFD contracts in this trade?” Hi Pete,
The number of contracts purely depends on the how much money you deposit…
So if you have a portfolio of R2... ››› more
Here's a bit of a warning.
Have you seen the petrol price hikes lately?
Probably not yet, but you will.
In America the prices of petrol and diesel shot up to the highest level in over 14 years.
Petrol went to $1.23 per litre or $4.69 per gallon.
Diesel rocketed to $1.35 per litre of $5.11 per gallon.
And as you know, what happens in America, has a ripple effect in South Africa ... ››› more
I believe there is one commodity that can be seen as an indicator for a recovering world economy.
Think about it…
We need oil to run just about anything nowadays.
We need oil for transport, for electricity and to run massive operations.
Last year, I was extremely pessimistic and expected the price of oil to drop to $30. Which it did… And this year, my analysi... ››› more
If you reading Trading Tips in 2020, you'll know I was a big seller of Brent Crude throughout the year.
In the last oil article, I made a wild prediction that Brent Crude oil was heading to $30.
If you missed it, you can catch up here…
"Why oil dropping below $40 is a major threat to the global economy"
And in just a few weeks, the price crashed down not only to... ››› more
I feel like I'm in a dream.
In the span of two weeks we've have good news overflow the markets.
We had Joe Biden win the elections. Then a few days later, two vaccines come out to end the Covid-19 pandemic.
And both local and global markets have rallied over 4% in that time.
And when I went to my charts, I saw a commodity that is ready for an 18% rally.
I'm talki... ››› more
To think, in 2011, Brent Crude was at $120 barrel. And today is barely hanging onto $40.
This was all thanks to the Corona-crisis.
In fact, we are now seeing a resurgence in Europe with new restrictions and lockdowns.
And just look at who's contracted the virus.
• President Donald Trump and the first lady
• British Prime Minister Boris Johnson
• Brazil's Jair Bolsnaro
• ... ››› more
The Rand weakened significantly last week as it failed to push through the R16 level against the USD.
It's now in a flag pattern, which signals longer-term weakness is on the cards. In the near term, we should see the Rand strengthen back to around R16.50.
With US elections a little over 4 weeks away, we could see general risk off sentiment as uncertainty of who will win weighs on investor... ››› more
“I am trying to wrap my mind around the spot and the futures market. Could you please clarify between the two and what the differences are between them?”
A. There are two different types of markets when it comes to trading – the spot and futures market.
The spot market or cash market is a public financial market in which the actual financial instrument is... ››› more
On Monday, while I was doing my weekly market analysis, I saw something I've never seen before.
For the first time in history, the US WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil prices crashed below zero.
At first, I thought this was just a glitch on my trading platform. But then, just minutes later, it was the breaking news event of the day.
When I did the research, I realised that the demand f... ››› more
All I can say is…
“That escalated quickly.”
On the 10th of February I sent out the article “BREAKING: Is this the next Oil Crisis?”
And last week in a matter of seconds, the oil price fell over 30%, striking right through my first target price.
This was Brent Crude's biggest one-day percentage drop since the start of the Gulf War in 1991.
And I haven't even mentio... ››› more
Brent crude has had an abysmal start of the year.
As things stand, the price is hovering around $50 per barrel which is the lowest it's been in over 12 months.
A major, if not ONLY factor, that's resulted in the drop in brent crude is the Coronavirus.
As I write this, the virus has already infected more than 17,000 Chinese people and more than 350 have died. The numbers are rising on... ››› more
In this week's episode of the Trump versus the world, Turkey seems to be in the spot light.
Last week Monday, President Trump said that he was going to apply heavy duties, boost tariffs on the country's steel to 50% from 25%, authorise sanctions on Turkey and cut off a $100 billion trade deal following Ankara's invasion of north-east Syria.
This is a major concern for analysts worldwide a... ››› more
Globally, investor sentiment is at a low, investors on the JSE are no different. They are faced with the same issues and risks as global investors but with the added risks locally.
It's not easy being optimistic enough to deploy additional capital but you can stack the odds in your favour by slowly deploying capital into the many JSE “bargains” that periods of sustained pessimism bring. Ba... ››› more
The hunt for yield and aversion to risk is causing something we have never seen before.
Interest rates and bond yields are falling globally and have turned negative. You can get a home loan in Denmark at an interest rate of -0.50% per year fixed for 10 years. While we are still far away from that with real rates in positive territory, investors must be tactical in deploying capital.
... ››› more
The most lucrative opportunities are found in times of maximum pessimism. Investors just need to filter through the noise for the right shares to invest in, that have potential tail winds in the months and years ahead.
Small caps have lost favour with investors. Many are trading at all-time lows while growing profits steadily in these tough economic times.
One such share is a little-known ... ››› more
If you haven't already read about it, Naspers (NPN) plans to list its international internet assets, in a company called Prosus, on the Euronext Amsterdam exchange and the JSE on September 11.
So, you need to own Naspers on 12 September (Ex-div date) to qualify for Prosus shares or additional Naspers shares.
For a lot of investors, the biggest consideration affecting their d... ››› more
Following on from last week's article where I quoted Sir John Templeton as saying “tell me where there is the most pessimism and I will tell you where to invest”. That describes global equity markets now and more accurately the South African market. Most investors are bearish and pessimism is high. But that doesn't mean you should be buying every stock making 52-week lows or in bargain territo... ››› more
Early in February this year, I sent out a prediction on the Brent crude oil price and why I expected it to hit $76.60.
Right now, the oil price is on par with the prediction as, last week, it rose above the $70 mark.
But something has changed…
In fact, I expect the Brent Crude price to rise even higher than I ever imagined. This is all thanks to Opec, five countries and a promising c... ››› more
In September 2014, Anchor Capital's shares closed 75% higher from the day it listed at a price of R2. The next day saw it close another 28.85% up. Investors dubbed it the “new kid on the block” as asset managers pushed it higher week after week.
After six months, investors who secured the stock at R2, gained 300%. The share price defied gravity to hit a high of R18.99 prior to Nene-gate; ... ››› more
How to get your trading questions answered by Timon himself
Q. “Timon, I'm sorry to ask you on Twitter but I need to know. Where can I ask my trading and investing questions to get answers direct from FSP Invest analysts”
A. You may ask all your questions in the comments in the Q&A section of our Facebook page by clicking here.
If you don't have Face... ››› more
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