March will be known as the worst month of all-time for the South African rand.
With the ongoing lockdown, the increasing rate of COVID-19 cases, the crumbling economy, and the downgrading from Moody's - It's just been bad news after bad news for SA.
And what happened last week?
Well we saw the South African rand hit record lows passing through the R19.00 mark against the US dollar.
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Lots of people think of gold as a hedge against uncertainty. And that's usually the case.
But over the past two weeks, something odd happened in the gold market…
From 9 March to 19 March, the dollar gold price fell from $1,679 to $1,472.
If gold is the ultimate hedge against uncertainty, why then, did it fall double digits (over 12%) in less than two weeks?
... ››› more
Crazy to think we are near the end of January, and already I'm seeing green signals flashing on my screen.
In fact, the main sector that is showing major upside to come is in resources.
It looks like resources will be the trading and investment darling for 2020.
And what better way to start than with a strong prediction with the leader of all resources - GOLD.
Today I'm going to re... ››› more
2020 is set to be a nervous year for South African investors.
At home we have this triple whammy to look forward to… load shedding, a potential ratings downgrade and low growth.
Internationally we got Brexit, the US election and the ongoing trade war. And maybe even an actual war!
All this when many global indices are at record high and way overdue a reset.
In such an environment... ››› more
Most people have notoriously bad memories.
Less than a month ago, the entire country was going through one of the most serious bouts of load shedding we have ever had.
Remember stage 6!!!
Yet after just a few weeks of consistent power supply, many have forgotten what it felt like and that it can return any day now!
Let's recap what happened in December.
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The Rand has strengthened against the majors over the past few weeks, but it has lost momentum and can't break below a key support level.
We have our third quarter GDP numbers out at 11h30.
With trade war uncertainty that hasn't abated and the VIX (aka the fear gauge) climbing from below 12 to above 14, we should see the Rand weaken against the majors over the next week or two.
When the ... ››› more
Last week we initiated a long USD/ZAR trade as we believed the market was pricing in too many positives.
After the sobering news from the medium-term budget speech, it promptly lost over 60 cents.
Traders who used futures would have made over 30% as our initial profit target was reached in just over a day.
The Rand is strengthening on the back of Moody's just reducing the outlook from s... ››› more
Imagine how much more successful you'd be if you had five chances to kick a penalty…
Five chances to sink a putt…
Five chances to nail that perfect landing…
Well that is exactly what my October Structured Product pick offers you: Five chances to make mega-profit.
And, best of all, you can customise this investment to suit your specific needs by choosing to invest in either Ra... ››› more
The JSE is down 3.95% for the past three months, 5.13% in the past six and we're only up 8% over the past three years.
With politics the way they are and the performance of the South African economy many investors are asking whether they should bail on SA listed stocks for good.
I'll give you my take on the situation now, let's first have a look at the facts:
SA’s economy is already... ››› more
The rand has only just broken back below the key R14/$ level and I can tell from the client flows going through our treasury desk, many South Africans are once again keen to get money out of the country.
The USD/ZAR exchange rate was well over R15/$ just a few weeks ago.
This means, the rand has firmed up around +7.75% in the last month-and-a-half. Put another way, that's about a year's wo... ››› more
The Rand has staged a stellar rally. Strengthening from above R15 against the USD to below R13.90. It came within half a cent of our R13.8550 target against the USD but the price is consolidating. It's time to bank our profits after a 6.24% gain, with gearing your gain could have been more than ten times larger.
Trading the other way and going long the USD against the ZAR has good risk to rewa... ››› more
What you're about to read will shock you…
1999 - The Euro came into existence in January which was the goal of the European Union and its predecessors since the 1960s.
Initially there was a negative reaction as the Euro fell below parity (1:1) with the US Dollar for the first time.
After, the dust settled and the EU was finding its feet with regulations, treaties and legislations, the E... ››› more
JSE up 3,3%
Last week the JSE recovered from an oversold position to close the week with a gain of 3,3%. Financials gained 4,8% and Industrials were up 3,7%. Resources managed a gain of 1,5%.
DAX up 6,6%, CAC up 5.2%.
European markets breathed a sigh of relief as the Italian referendum failed, the Dax gained 6,6% and the CAC 5,2%. Italy was up 7,3% and Spain put in 6,5%
US Markets... ››› more
Dear MoneyMorning reader,
US Stock up 3%, Emerging Markets down 4,5%
US Stocks recovered from sharply lower levels after a reconciliatory speech from President elect Donald Trump which eased market fears; Energy and Industrials were the leaders based on his plans for infrastructural development.
Emerging Markets have been left out in the cold as investors evaluate the impact of a Trump p... ››› more
Remember to fill your tank on your way home from work tonight. Due to the weakening and the price increase of petroleum related products on international markets, the price of petrol is increasing at midnight tonight.
The petrol proce will increase by 52 cents a litre and the diesel price will rise by 76 cents tomorrow. As long the rand continues to weaken against the dollar, you can expect th... ››› more
Since the South African reserve bank decided not to increase interest rates again, you have a brief moment of relief to make sure that you get your financial house in order before the next rate hike. Now is the time to be more frugal with your money. It's not the time to make more debt or increase your spending.
The challenges for consumers in 2016 are far from over. No one know if the reserve... ››› more
The past few weeks have been harrowing for the rand.
It's been taking a severe beating from the dollar in the past two weeks.
Worst of all, rumours about the arrest of Pravin Gordhan has certainly not been helping matters at all. But, finally, it seems to have found a moment of stability. How long this will last, I don't know.
But let's take a closer look...
The rand is battered by t... ››› more
With the rand doing tumbles in the markets right now, you need a way to expose your money to international markets.
You see, by earning money in pounds or dollars, you're protecting yourself from the weaker rand here at home. In fact, you're increasing your investment returns. ETFs are a great way to get exposure offshore with limited risk and capital outlay. Today we've found you the ideal of... ››› more
Yesterday I warned investors that the rand will lose strength against the dollar because of the rumours that the Hawks want to arrest Pravin Gordhan for his involvement in the establishment of the SARS rogue unit while he was the tax agency's commissioner. As I expected, that's exactly what happened. But now, where to from here? Is it time for South African investors to be really worried? And wha... ››› more
This morning, the rand is trading at R15.51 to the dollar. In 11 days it's lost 54 cents against the greenback. This is only the beginning of the rand's fall.
If you think this is bad, keep an eye on the rand this week. I expect to see a significant weakening against the dollar thanks to new rumours in the media related to the arrest of our finance minister, Pravin Gordhan. “Pravin Gordhan fa... ››› more
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