Welcome to the first prediction article for the year.
And what better way to start, than to see where our currency is heading.
Now if you've been following my rand predictions from last year, you'd know that I expected the rand to strengthen from R16.50 down to R15.00 against the US dollar.
If you missed the article, you can catch up here...
America is going to hell - And the S... ››› more
Last week, was a wild ride.
We had a global sell-off in stocks and currencies due to:
• The nail-biting election between Trump & Biden
• Major dollar weakness with the lack of confidence in America
• A resurgence in COVID-19 cases to new highs in Europe and America
And while all hell was breaking loose, the South African rand was on fire.
In fact, last week it broke below ... ››› more
Market sentiment has improved since President Trump's release from hospital, and we head into third quarter (Q3) earnings season.
Analyst forecasts on the S&P500 (a gauge for global equity markets) signals a potential decline of 20.5% for Q3, this would be the second largest Q3 decline since 2009.
Analysts expect a decline in earnings in the fourth quarter of 11.8%, and a return to earning... ››› more
The rand has been extremely volatile this year, ranging between R14/USD to over R19/USD. Recently, the currency seems to have found a range between R16.40/USD and R17.20/USD. This stability may be short-lived however as the rest of the year will likely prove turbulent.
Overseas, we have the US election looming in early November. It's set to be one of the most contentious in recent memory. Thou... ››› more
The Rand followed the technical pattern in textbook fashion last week banking 3.5% ungeared. That's 35% using futures and as much as 350% on margin if you were trading CFDs.
Right now the Rand is at a crucial technical level as support on the USD/ZAR builds at R16.40.
Look at the chart below to see where the Rand could be headed next…
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For the first time in nearly 16 years inflation is below the South African Reserve Bank's targeted range.
Yesterday, Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) slowed to 2.1%. That's the lowest number since September 2004.
Now, you're thinking inflation is low, that's a good thing, right?
It's a bit more complicated. Let's explore…
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Di... ››› more
Many investors rush for the exit at the same time, causing a whip-saw effect in asset prices.
The Rand is particularly vulnerable to this as one of the major currencies.
Emerging market (EM) investors can use it as a proxy for less liquid EM currencies, and use it to hedge as it has the benefit of straddling trading hours in parts of Asia and America.
There are two ways for you to get ... ››› more
It's been an absolute roller coaster for the rand this year.
In January it was trading strongly at R14.50 to the US dollar.
In late April, we thought it was the end of the rand as it traded at R19.00 to the dollar.
And now, it's currently trading at R16.55.
I believe there's been two main causes for the rand's volatility namely.
Cause #1:
South Africa entering into ... ››› more
For a long while now, I've been talking about countries coming out of lockdown and how we'll see a recovery in markets.
I wasn't wrong.
The S&P 500 is back above 3 000, a gain of almost 40% from its March low.
Let me say that again, the S&P 500 has returned almost 40% in the past two months.
While I knew markets would begin to recover, even I wouldn't have predicted a recovery that... ››› more
March will be known as the worst month of all-time for the South African rand.
With the ongoing lockdown, the increasing rate of COVID-19 cases, the crumbling economy, and the downgrading from Moody's - It's just been bad news after bad news for SA.
And what happened last week?
Well we saw the South African rand hit record lows passing through the R19.00 mark against the US dollar.
... ››› more
Lots of people think of gold as a hedge against uncertainty. And that's usually the case.
But over the past two weeks, something odd happened in the gold market…
From 9 March to 19 March, the dollar gold price fell from $1,679 to $1,472.
If gold is the ultimate hedge against uncertainty, why then, did it fall double digits (over 12%) in less than two weeks?
... ››› more
Crazy to think we are near the end of January, and already I'm seeing green signals flashing on my screen.
In fact, the main sector that is showing major upside to come is in resources.
It looks like resources will be the trading and investment darling for 2020.
And what better way to start than with a strong prediction with the leader of all resources - GOLD.
Today I'm going to re... ››› more
2020 is set to be a nervous year for South African investors.
At home we have this triple whammy to look forward to… load shedding, a potential ratings downgrade and low growth.
Internationally we got Brexit, the US election and the ongoing trade war. And maybe even an actual war!
All this when many global indices are at record high and way overdue a reset.
In such an environment... ››› more
Most people have notoriously bad memories.
Less than a month ago, the entire country was going through one of the most serious bouts of load shedding we have ever had.
Remember stage 6!!!
Yet after just a few weeks of consistent power supply, many have forgotten what it felt like and that it can return any day now!
Let's recap what happened in December.
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The Rand has strengthened against the majors over the past few weeks, but it has lost momentum and can't break below a key support level.
We have our third quarter GDP numbers out at 11h30.
With trade war uncertainty that hasn't abated and the VIX (aka the fear gauge) climbing from below 12 to above 14, we should see the Rand weaken against the majors over the next week or two.
When the ... ››› more
Last week we initiated a long USD/ZAR trade as we believed the market was pricing in too many positives.
After the sobering news from the medium-term budget speech, it promptly lost over 60 cents.
Traders who used futures would have made over 30% as our initial profit target was reached in just over a day.
The Rand is strengthening on the back of Moody's just reducing the outlook from s... ››› more
Imagine how much more successful you'd be if you had five chances to kick a penalty…
Five chances to sink a putt…
Five chances to nail that perfect landing…
Well that is exactly what my October Structured Product pick offers you: Five chances to make mega-profit.
And, best of all, you can customise this investment to suit your specific needs by choosing to invest in either Ra... ››› more
The JSE is down 3.95% for the past three months, 5.13% in the past six and we're only up 8% over the past three years.
With politics the way they are and the performance of the South African economy many investors are asking whether they should bail on SA listed stocks for good.
I'll give you my take on the situation now, let's first have a look at the facts:
SA’s economy is already... ››› more
The rand has only just broken back below the key R14/$ level and I can tell from the client flows going through our treasury desk, many South Africans are once again keen to get money out of the country.
The USD/ZAR exchange rate was well over R15/$ just a few weeks ago.
This means, the rand has firmed up around +7.75% in the last month-and-a-half. Put another way, that's about a year's wo... ››› more
The Rand has staged a stellar rally. Strengthening from above R15 against the USD to below R13.90. It came within half a cent of our R13.8550 target against the USD but the price is consolidating. It's time to bank our profits after a 6.24% gain, with gearing your gain could have been more than ten times larger.
Trading the other way and going long the USD against the ZAR has good risk to rewa... ››› more
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