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Economy

  • What is the state of SA's economic recovery right now?
  • It's a year since 2020's hard lockdown ended. We're back in level 4 today. But life has changed a lot. We've adapted to the pandemic and its effects on our lives and businesses. So, what's the state of the South African economy today, and how does it affect your investments? ________________________________________   How to Grow a Multi-Million Rand Retirement   ... ››› more
  • [08 July 2021]
  • What's the situation with the South African economy right now?
  • On 20 May 2021 the SA Reserve Bank had its bimonthly monetary policy meeting. The bank kept interest rates flat - at what is basically an all-time low for South Africans… In its announcement the bank governor, Lestja Kganyago said “Economic and financial conditions are expected to remain volatile for the foreseeable future. In this uncertain environment, policy decisions will continue ... ››› more
  • [10 June 2021]
  • What the resources boom means for the rand
  • By now I'm sure you've noticed commodity prices are booming! Fifty-three out of 63 commodities monitored by the World Bank were up in price in December 2020 compared with the same month a year earlier. Copper, Palladium, Rhodium and many other metals are at all time highs. Even agricultural commodities like soy, maize and sunflower are climbing. I don't expect this to continue forever.... ››› more
  • [06 May 2021]
  • Why SA's 51% GDP drop is already irrelevant news
  • On 8 September South Africa's GDP figures for the second quarter of 2020 was released. Our economy shrank by 51% annualised in the three months between April and June 2020. This has put us into the longest recession in the past 28 years. Sectors like mining fell 73.1%, manufacturing fell 74.9% and construction shrank by 76.6%. This is bad. But even though it was just released, i... ››› more
  • [10 September 2020]
  • This news could cause a major headache for Eskom - and an opportunity for investors
  • Eskom recently submitted documents to the Centre for Environmental Rights (CER) stating that it could possibly keep its Grootvlei, Camden and Hendrina power stations open as late as 2030. These are all power stations at the end of their lives, that would have been shut in part starting this year! Eskom is doing this to keep extra capacity in the grid, and avoid load shedding. But here's t... ››› more
  • [20 May 2020]
  • This 2007 report predicted what the Covid-19 crisis would do to our economy
  • While there have been epidemics in our lifetime, none have had the level of response from government's that we're now seeing. And while it's now become clear that we'll have to deal with lockdown measures for longer than many initially thought - we're also far enough through this crisis to start looking ahead. How will our economy recover, will it be quick or slow? Will we see inflatio... ››› more
  • [06 May 2020]
  • Why the rand will hit R22.44 thanks to this double-whammy
  • On 24 February 2020, I sent out an article: Coronavirus + Eskom + Moody's + Chart = Rand disaster At the time the South African rand was trading at R14.20. I predicted that the USD/ZAR would move to the first target at R16.00 within a couple of weeks… This was due to the following factors at the time… • The Coronavirus was declared by the WHO as a global health emergency. ... ››› more
  • [21 April 2020]
  • COVID-19 + Junk Status + Recession fears = another 25% crash on the JSE
  • March 2020, will be known as one of the most brutal months that the JSE and the equity markets have ever seen. On 12 March, the index fell 9.51% and a further 11.98% on 16 March - two of the biggest daily drops since the 2008 Financial Crash. CEO - JSE, Leila Fourie, said in an interview about the value drop and trade volumes: “Over the past few weeks on average we've been processing... ››› more
  • [06 April 2020]
  • Don't get caught in South Africa's debt death-spiral
  • Last Friday, ratings agency Moodys dropped their outlook for SA debt from stable to negative. This means within the next 6 to 24 months it's likely we'll see the last of the three major ratings agencies cut our government debt rating to junk. As an economist, I am now all but certain the downgrade will happen. SA will become a junk status borrower. ________________________________________... ››› more
  • [08 November 2019]
  • South Africa's economy is saved from recession - but we're not out of the woods yet
  • The latest release from StatsSA showed that South Africa's economy grew 3.1% for the second quarter of 2019. This was better than the 2.5% expected by most economists, and it's a good sign for South African's who were worried about recession hitting. Unfortunately, this growth doesn't necessarily mean our economy is growing again… With first quarter GDP shrinking 3.2%, 3.1% growth do... ››› more
  • [19 September 2019]
  • South Africa out of recession… where to from here?
  • At 11:30 on 4 December 2018 Stats SA announced that South Africa is out of its recession. GDP Growth for the third quarter came in at 2.2%, after a 2.6% decline in the first quarter and a 0.4% decline in the second quarter of 2018. Editor's Note:  This is your FINAL chance to be a part of the biggest "bonus" we'... ››› more
  • [06 December 2018]
  • The 3 most troubling takeaways from SONA
  • The State of the Nation Address (SONA) was certainly a spectacle, unfortunately mainly for the wrong reasons. However, as South Africans, it's essential to analyse the SONA - especially as it could have a significant impact on our lives. Personally, I found three aspects of SONA particularly troubling…   Why investors should be worried about SONA 2017 #1: The violence   In hi... ››› more
  • [22 September 2017]
  • They don't have a clue what they're telling you…
  • “Trump will be great for business” “Trump will make you, and me, richer” “15 industries that will be affected by a Trump presidency” Trump. Trump. Trump. It's the buzz word right now. Everyday there's a new article on Moneyweb, News24 and Bloomberg telling us how Trump will affect business, the stock market and even the world. They're telling you this, without a clue ... ››› more
  • [24 November 2016]
  • How South Africans can profit from Europe's fastest growing economy…
  • When you think of Europe's fastest growing economies, who comes to mind? Switzerland?, Germany?, maybe Netherlands? No it's none of them. The fastest growing economies in Europe consist of countries you don't hear much about in the news. I'm talking about Malta, Luxembourg, Romania and Poland. These countries' economies are expected to grow more than double the Eurozone's in 2016 and b... ››› more
  • [12 September 2016]
  • This market is crashing spectacularly - avoid it for now
  • Car sales are crashing. Since 2014 they've been in a straight downtrend. In fact, the latest figures from July 2016 show a drop of 17% (9,222 less vehicles) in vehicles sold compared to July 2015.   -------------------- Advertisement --------------------   Discover the explosive profit secret that could see you banking gains of 200%, 300% or even 500% in as little as 2 years  ... ››› more
  • [04 August 2016]
  • Pravin Gordhan believes South Africa will dodge another recession
  • So far this year, you've heard the word recession a lot. It's a real threat to the economy right now. The third quarter of 2015 saw 0.7% gross domestic product (GDP) growth - the fourth quarter saw 0.6% GDP growth. Results of the first quarter of 2016 shows the economy contracted 1.2%. Economists expected the economy to contract only 0.1%, which leads me to believe that nobody really knows... ››› more
  • [28 July 2016]
  • The JSE just made a R100 billion error
  • Until Sunday 24 July 2016, economists, local and international investors were investing under a false notion that foreign investors bought South African equities to the value of nearly R100 billion. Economists were mostly baffled by the figures being reported by the JSE. They could not understand why so many investors were buying up such a large portion of South African listed companies. Some ... ››› more
  • [27 July 2016]
  • Can the SA economy or your pocket handle another increase in maize prices?
  • The drought that's battering Southern Africa right now is going to wreak havoc on your pockets in the near future. South African corn farmers are expected to produce the lowest maize produce in 8 years. The last time production numbers were this low was in 2008. The numbers are concerning and it seems that South Africa will have to drastically increase the amount of maize it imports to 3.8... ››› more
  • [13 July 2016]
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