Last Friday, ratings agency Moodys dropped their outlook for SA debt from stable to negative. This means within the next 6 to 24 months it's likely we'll see the last of the three major ratings agencies cut our government debt rating to junk.
As an economist, I am now all but certain the downgrade will happen. SA will become a junk status borrower.
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The latest release from StatsSA showed that South Africa's economy grew 3.1% for the second quarter of 2019.
This was better than the 2.5% expected by most economists, and it's a good sign for South African's who were worried about recession hitting.
Unfortunately, this growth doesn't necessarily mean our economy is growing again…
With first quarter GDP shrinking 3.2%, 3.1% growth do... ››› more
At 11:30 on 4 December 2018 Stats SA announced that South Africa is out of its recession.
GDP Growth for the third quarter came in at 2.2%, after a 2.6% decline in the first quarter and a 0.4% decline in the second quarter of 2018.
Editor's Note: This is your FINAL chance to be a part of the biggest "bonus" we'... ››› more
The State of the Nation Address (SONA) was certainly a spectacle, unfortunately mainly for the wrong reasons. However, as South Africans, it's essential to analyse the SONA - especially as it could have a significant impact on our lives.
Personally, I found three aspects of SONA particularly troubling…
Why investors should be worried about SONA 2017 #1: The violence
In hi... ››› more
“Trump will be great for business”
“Trump will make you, and me, richer”
“15 industries that will be affected by a Trump presidency”
Trump. Trump. Trump.
It's the buzz word right now.
Everyday there's a new article on Moneyweb, News24 and Bloomberg telling us how Trump will affect business, the stock market and even the world.
They're telling you this, without a clue ... ››› more
When you think of Europe's fastest growing economies, who comes to mind?
Switzerland?, Germany?, maybe Netherlands?
No it's none of them.
The fastest growing economies in Europe consist of countries you don't hear much about in the news. I'm talking about Malta, Luxembourg, Romania and Poland.
These countries' economies are expected to grow more than double the Eurozone's in 2016 and b... ››› more
Car sales are crashing.
Since 2014 they've been in a straight downtrend.
In fact, the latest figures from July 2016 show a drop of 17% (9,222 less vehicles) in vehicles sold compared to July 2015.
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There's a scary word floating around the investment world right now.
It's hanging over your portfolio like a black cloud. It's threatening your income, your investments and your financial future.
The frightening thing is many investors don't even know that their money is in danger. They're ambling along blind to the fact that they're about to lose a large portion of their investments.
... ››› more
So far this year, you've heard the word recession a lot. It's a real threat to the economy right now.
The third quarter of 2015 saw 0.7% gross domestic product (GDP) growth - the fourth quarter saw 0.6% GDP growth. Results of the first quarter of 2016 shows the economy contracted 1.2%.
Economists expected the economy to contract only 0.1%, which leads me to believe that nobody really knows... ››› more
Until Sunday 24 July 2016, economists, local and international investors were investing under a false notion that foreign investors bought South African equities to the value of nearly R100 billion.
Economists were mostly baffled by the figures being reported by the JSE. They could not understand why so many investors were buying up such a large portion of South African listed companies. Some ... ››› more
The drought that's battering Southern Africa right now is going to wreak havoc on your pockets in the near future. South African corn farmers are expected to produce the lowest maize produce in 8 years.
The last time production numbers were this low was in 2008.
The numbers are concerning and it seems that South Africa will have to drastically increase the amount of maize it imports to 3.8... ››› more
If you're celebrating that we're almost through winter and had no load-shedding, I have some bad news for you.
You and I might have had an “uninterrupted” power supply this winter but it's going to cost our pockets, big time!
According to an article in the City Press newspaper this weekend, “The economy is set for a shock from the combined blows of Eskom's move to hike the cost of tw... ››› more
When the results of the Brexit referendum came on Friday 24 June 2016, the rand fell more than 8% against the dollar. This was the biggest fall against the American currency since 2008.
The international impact of Britain's decision to leave the European Union is making it difficult for investors to figure out what to invest in next. If you're feeling confused, there is one market that still o... ››› more
Last week, the Zimbabwean Government implemented a law causing major unrest in the border towns of Zimbabwe and South Africa.
The introduction of Statutory Instrument 64 of 2016 (SI64) restricts the import of certain goods from South Africa into Zimbabwe. This includes items like plastic pipes, doors, bottled water, window frames, baked beans, potato chips... Even peanut butter got the cut.
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So unless you've been living under a rock for the last week you'll have noticed that the UK scored a massive own goal by voting to leave the European Union last Friday.
What a mess!
All those South African's now “safely” living in the UK and no doubt looking down their snooty noses at our own Nene-gate scandal (and the subsequent rand devaluation) are now facing the same sort of curren... ››› more
On 23 June 2016, I remember reading a Moneyweb article stating the “JSE, Rand shrug off Brexit fears”.
Another well-known market commentator said that “I think it is going to be a non-event, quite honestly, but if it so happens that they vote to leave, the markets are in for a massive shock. I think the markets are going to scramble.”
I even read a tweet from a trader stating that ... ››› more
When I heard the results of the Brexit vote last Friday, I was watching TV, clutching a cup of coffee and snuggling under a blanket with my sons in the diamond city, Kimberley.
As soon as the news bulletin ended, my phone started to buzz uncontrollably.
First, a message from my brother asking, “Did you see the Brexit result?” I ignored it. Then, a message from a colleague, “How could... ››› more
You already know that rumours of a recession are circulating around the investment markets.
2016 has been a tough year for the South African economy and the hard times don't look like they're going to stop any time soon.
Statistics South Africa shows that the economy is already down 1.2% for the year. We're in the middle of a drought and the price of food, electricity and water is steadily... ››› more
Anheuser-Busch InBev got conditional approval from the South African Competition Tribunal on Tuesday for its $100 billion acquisition of SABMIller (JSE:SAB) in South Africa.
The go-ahead didn't come without certain conditions though. The commission found that the deal raises several competition and public interest concerns and has moved to deal with these.
To ensure that South Africa doesn'... ››› more
Standard & Poor's and Fitch ratings agencies is expected to give their verdict on the country's rating by the end of this week.
The financial analysts at FSPInvest believe that a downgrade to junk status is inevitable. Even if this doesn't happen this month, it will happen before the end of 2016.
Here's what will happen to the economy and your investment portfolio if the downgrade does happ... ››› more
Disclaimer Note that FSP Invest, a division of Fleet Street Publications (Pty) Ltd, is a research house and not a registered broker, financial advisor or financial service provider. Our editors and customer services teams also do not give personal investment advice. The advice in this website is general advice only and may not be appropriate to your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, so before investing or if in any doubt about your personal situation, you should seek professional advice from a stockbroker or independent financial adviser authorised by the Financial Services Board.
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