The hunt for yield and aversion to risk is causing something we have never seen before.
Interest rates and bond yields are falling globally and have turned negative. You can get a home loan in Denmark at an interest rate of -0.50% per year fixed for 10 years. While we are still far away from that with real rates in positive territory, investors must be tactical in deploying capital.
... ››› more
The most lucrative opportunities are found in times of maximum pessimism. Investors just need to filter through the noise for the right shares to invest in, that have potential tail winds in the months and years ahead.
Small caps have lost favour with investors. Many are trading at all-time lows while growing profits steadily in these tough economic times.
One such share is a little-known ... ››› more
If you haven't already read about it, Naspers (NPN) plans to list its international internet assets, in a company called Prosus, on the Euronext Amsterdam exchange and the JSE on September 11.
So, you need to own Naspers on 12 September (Ex-div date) to qualify for Prosus shares or additional Naspers shares.
For a lot of investors, the biggest consideration affecting their d... ››› more
Following on from last week's article where I quoted Sir John Templeton as saying “tell me where there is the most pessimism and I will tell you where to invest”. That describes global equity markets now and more accurately the South African market. Most investors are bearish and pessimism is high. But that doesn't mean you should be buying every stock making 52-week lows or in bargain territo... ››› more
Last week I wrote about never letting a good crisis go to waste. It's one of the most difficult things for investors to do while you're in the thick of it. You don't want to deploy capital when things look like they are going to get worse, much worse. But that is the precise time to “slowly drip” capital into the market. It's an investors primary focus to look past the noise to see opportunity... ››› more
As Winston Churchill once said “Never let a good crisis go to waste”, we believe investors should be ensuring they have enough exposure to offshore assets that will be a hedge against a “deeper crisis” and should be slowly buying depressed local assets if they have cash on hand. Most investors have been sitting on the sidelines not fully exposed to equities
You can't blame local invest... ››› more
I'm sure you have seen the headlines signaling the Rand is on a downward spiral. We highlighted the Rand being at risk of weakness when it was below R13.90 to the USD two weeks ago. It's lost almost 3% but recovering steadily.
This bout of weakness is on the back of Eskom's new lifeline of R59 billion, over the next two years. After government committed R69 billion over three years earlier thi... ››› more
EOH's share price has pulled back and our stop loss at R24 helped us protect 71% of our gains. The share price has pulled back to R20.00 and the company has indicated the forensic inquiry has identified R1.2 billion in suspicious payments.
This is not a massive number and signals that the turn around in EOH will materialize over the coming months as Stephen van Coller delivers on his strategy. ... ››› more
The Rand has staged a stellar rally. Strengthening from above R15 against the USD to below R13.90. It came within half a cent of our R13.8550 target against the USD but the price is consolidating. It's time to bank our profits after a 6.24% gain, with gearing your gain could have been more than ten times larger.
Trading the other way and going long the USD against the ZAR has good risk to rewa... ››› more
Our market scanner has highlighted several shares in overbought and oversold territory.
Below is extracted from our weekly data table. Our model scans most of the shares in the JSE All Share Index and measures their standard deviation using our proprietary methodology. We supplement the standard deviation with fundamental and technical analysis to come up with our investment ideas.
Someti... ››› more
President Trump's willingness to get around the negotiating table has sparked a risk on rally, with safe havens like Gold, Yen and the Swiss Franc pulling back.
President Trump said he would hold back on new tariffs and China would buy more farm products. He also indicated the US Commerce Department could decide if Huawei should be removed off the list of banned firms and can do so without go... ››› more
Bidcorp's attempted breakout above the R320 per share resistance level failed, this is the third time since 2017 that Bidcorp's share price failed to move above R320.
The share price has pulled back over 3% with further advances unlikely, investors should look to lock in profits as the share price is on a standard deviation of 2.4. This signals a pullback is likely, and a retracement has starte... ››› more
This Thursday is futures closeout from 12h00 until 12h15. During this time the market is in an auction as the June derivative contracts close with a final mark to market price. Typically, closeout presents many profit opportunities as banks, hedge funds and traders manage their positions. Their aim is to maximise profits on some positions and reduce risk of loss on others.
Stocks to watch are ... ››› more
The Rand fell over 3% from its open to close last week. This is on the back of Ace Magashule's surprise (and incorrect) inclusion of changing the Reserve Bank's mandate and possible quantitative easing. When you add the bad GDP growth figures, you can see why people panicked and sold the Rand for any price they could get. Typically, this herd mentality happens at exactly the incorrect time creatin... ››› more
Telkom released annual results last week and its share price soared after a brief pull back. It has rallied over 50% year to date. Investors were expecting information on the potential property portfolio unlock. Nothing concrete has been delivered.
The CEO Sipho Maseko highlighted “Our strategy to separate our property and mast and tower portfolio to increase management focus and unloc... ››› more
Investec have introduced FTSE100 Auto Call, a five-year structured product providing an 18% return per annum if the index is positive. The product can mature (Auto Call) if the index is positive on the third, fourth and fifth anniversaries provide the index is positive. You could receive 54% after year 3, or 72% or 90%, after year 4 or 5 respectively. That's even if the index is up just 1% over an... ››› more
The JSE heavy weight Naspers, has pulled backed after it rallied over 50% from its 2018 low. The pull back is due to a global market sell-off sparked by President Trump escalating the Trade War and ‘kicking out' Huawei.
Below is a chart of Naspers, I've included the Fibonacci retracement levels, as traders will be eyeing these levels to build positions. Yesterday's close was just below the 3... ››› more
Investors have been banking profits and positioning their portfolios for an escalation in the “Trade Wars”. Panic and fear haven't gripped the market gauging by the increase in the Volatility Index (VIX) over the past few days but that could all change with further tit-for-tat tariff increases.
Investors could generate significant returns waiting for the VIX to reach 25 before buying into ... ››› more
The UK market has rallied over 9% year to date (the market was closed yesterday). But it remains just above a multi-year trading channel dating back to 1999. Investors and businesses don't like policy uncertainty and Brexit has created almost three years of it.
The most recent revelations of secret talks and renewed focus on a people vote add to the uncertainty.
We believe the UK market is ... ››› more
If this support level holds, we could see our market run to record highs. And the elections could be the catalyst for a strong bounce and rally to the previous highs.
The old stock market adage of “sell in May and go away”, seems to be ringing true for the JSE as we approach May. The JSE (Top 40 future) is pulling back, testing a crucial support level.
This back-up plan will allow Americ... ››› more
Disclaimer Note that FSP Invest, a division of Fleet Street Publications (Pty) Ltd, is a research house and not a registered broker, financial advisor or financial service provider. Our editors and customer services teams also do not give personal investment advice. The advice in this website is general advice only and may not be appropriate to your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, so before investing or if in any doubt about your personal situation, you should seek professional advice from a stockbroker or independent financial adviser authorised by the Financial Services Board.
We research our recommendations and articles thoroughly, but disclaim all liability for any inaccuracies or omissions found in this publication.
Remember: Never invest more than you can afford to spare and that the value of any investment, and the income derived from it, can go down as well as up. The past is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Editors or contributors may have an interest in investments commented on in this newsletter. However they have signed restraints to prevent the abuse of their position as contributors to this publication.