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Gavin Mccarter

  • Buying property at a discount and 12% dividend yield
  • The hunt for yield and aversion to risk is causing something we have never seen before. Interest rates and bond yields are falling globally and have turned negative. You can get a home loan in Denmark at an interest rate of -0.50% per year fixed for 10 years. While we are still far away from that with real rates in positive territory, investors must be tactical in deploying capital.   ... ››› more
  • [17 September 2019]
  • The tide is turning on this small-cap education stock
  • The most lucrative opportunities are found in times of maximum pessimism. Investors just need to filter through the noise for the right shares to invest in, that have potential tail winds in the months and years ahead. Small caps have lost favour with investors. Many are trading at all-time lows while growing profits steadily in these tough economic times. One such share is a little-known ... ››› more
  • [10 September 2019]
  • What should you do with your Naspers?
  • If you haven't already read about it, Naspers (NPN) plans to list its international internet assets, in a company called Prosus, on the Euronext Amsterdam exchange and the JSE on September 11.   So, you need to own Naspers on 12 September (Ex-div date) to qualify for Prosus shares or additional Naspers shares.    For a lot of investors, the biggest consideration affecting their d... ››› more
  • [03 September 2019]
  • Bargain hunting in “bear” territory
  • Following on from last week's article where I quoted Sir John Templeton as saying “tell me where there is the most pessimism and I will tell you where to invest”. That describes global equity markets now and more accurately the South African market. Most investors are bearish and pessimism is high. But that doesn't mean you should be buying every stock making 52-week lows or in bargain territo... ››› more
  • [27 August 2019]
  • Investors rank SA Junk status
  • Last week I wrote about never letting a good crisis go to waste. It's one of the most difficult things for investors to do while you're in the thick of it. You don't want to deploy capital when things look like they are going to get worse, much worse. But that is the precise time to “slowly drip” capital into the market. It's an investors primary focus to look past the noise to see opportunity... ››› more
  • [13 August 2019]
  • Never let a good crisis go to waste
  • As Winston Churchill once said “Never let a good crisis go to waste”, we believe investors should be ensuring they have enough exposure to offshore assets that will be a hedge against a “deeper crisis” and should be slowly buying depressed local assets if they have cash on hand. Most investors have been sitting on the sidelines not fully exposed to equities You can't blame local invest... ››› more
  • [06 August 2019]
  • The ZAR's Eskom induced downward spiral
  • I'm sure you have seen the headlines signaling the Rand is on a downward spiral. We highlighted the Rand being at risk of weakness when it was below R13.90 to the USD two weeks ago. It's lost almost 3% but recovering steadily. This bout of weakness is on the back of Eskom's new lifeline of R59 billion, over the next two years. After government committed R69 billion over three years earlier thi... ››› more
  • [30 July 2019]
  • We banked 71% on EOH and 6.24% on our USD/ZAR and it's time to get back in
  • EOH's share price has pulled back and our stop loss at R24 helped us protect 71% of our gains. The share price has pulled back to R20.00 and the company has indicated the forensic inquiry has identified R1.2 billion in suspicious payments. This is not a massive number and signals that the turn around in EOH will materialize over the coming months as Stephen van Coller delivers on his strategy. ... ››› more
  • [23 July 2019]
  • Why you should go long the USD/ZAR
  • The Rand has staged a stellar rally. Strengthening from above R15 against the USD to below R13.90. It came within half a cent of our R13.8550 target against the USD but the price is consolidating. It's time to bank our profits after a 6.24% gain, with gearing your gain could have been more than ten times larger. Trading the other way and going long the USD against the ZAR has good risk to rewa... ››› more
  • [16 July 2019]
  • ProTrade's proprietary market scanner
  • Our market scanner has highlighted several shares in overbought and oversold territory. Below is extracted from our weekly data table. Our model scans most of the shares in the JSE All Share Index and measures their standard deviation using our proprietary methodology. We supplement the standard deviation with fundamental and technical analysis to come up with our investment ideas. Someti... ››› more
  • [09 July 2019]
  • Gold Losses shine as Trump signals ‘Trade Truce'
  • President Trump's willingness to get around the negotiating table has sparked a risk on rally, with safe havens like Gold, Yen and the Swiss Franc pulling back. President Trump said he would hold back on new tariffs and China would buy more farm products. He also indicated the US Commerce Department could decide if Huawei should be removed off the list of banned firms and can do so without go... ››› more
  • [02 July 2019]
  • Bidcorp rally runs out of steam
  • Bidcorp's attempted breakout above the R320 per share resistance level failed, this is the third time since 2017 that Bidcorp's share price failed to move above R320. The share price has pulled back over 3% with further advances unlikely, investors should look to lock in profits as the share price is on a standard deviation of 2.4. This signals a pullback is likely, and a retracement has starte... ››› more
  • [25 June 2019]
  • Profit from Futures Closeout this Thursday
  • This Thursday is futures closeout from 12h00 until 12h15. During this time the market is in an auction as the June derivative contracts close with a final mark to market price. Typically, closeout presents many profit opportunities as banks, hedge funds and traders manage their positions. Their aim is to maximise profits on some positions and reduce risk of loss on others. Stocks to watch are ... ››› more
  • [18 June 2019]
  • Profit as the Rand blow out settles!
  • The Rand fell over 3% from its open to close last week. This is on the back of Ace Magashule's surprise (and incorrect) inclusion of changing the Reserve Bank's mandate and possible quantitative easing. When you add the bad GDP growth figures, you can see why people panicked and sold the Rand for any price they could get. Typically, this herd mentality happens at exactly the incorrect time creatin... ››› more
  • [12 June 2019]
  • Take profit on Telkom today!
  • Telkom released annual results last week and its share price soared after a brief pull back. It has rallied over 50% year to date. Investors were expecting information on the potential property portfolio unlock. Nothing concrete has been delivered.   The CEO Sipho Maseko highlighted “Our strategy to separate our property and mast and tower portfolio to increase management focus and unloc... ››› more
  • [04 June 2019]
  • Profit from the FTSE100, but you must act before 29 May!
  • Investec have introduced FTSE100 Auto Call, a five-year structured product providing an 18% return per annum if the index is positive. The product can mature (Auto Call) if the index is positive on the third, fourth and fifth anniversaries provide the index is positive. You could receive 54% after year 3, or 72% or 90%, after year 4 or 5 respectively. That's even if the index is up just 1% over an... ››› more
  • [28 May 2019]
  • Buy the pullback in Naspers today!
  • The JSE heavy weight Naspers, has pulled backed after it rallied over 50% from its 2018 low. The pull back is due to a global market sell-off sparked by President Trump escalating the Trade War and ‘kicking out' Huawei. Below is a chart of Naspers, I've included the Fibonacci retracement levels, as traders will be eyeing these levels to build positions. Yesterday's close was just below the 3... ››› more
  • [21 May 2019]
  • Investors aren't panicking, yet
  • Investors have been banking profits and positioning their portfolios for an escalation in the “Trade Wars”. Panic and fear haven't gripped the market gauging by the increase in the Volatility Index (VIX) over the past few days but that could all change with further tit-for-tat tariff increases. Investors could generate significant returns waiting for the VIX to reach 25 before buying into ... ››› more
  • [14 May 2019]
  • Invest in the UK with protection from a “Bad” Brexit
  • The UK market has rallied over 9% year to date (the market was closed yesterday). But it remains just above a multi-year trading channel dating back to 1999. Investors and businesses don't like policy uncertainty and Brexit has created almost three years of it. The most recent revelations of secret talks and renewed focus on a people vote add to the uncertainty. We believe the UK market is ... ››› more
  • [09 May 2019]
  • Don't “Sell in May and go Away"
  • If this support level holds, we could see our market run to record highs. And the elections could be the catalyst for a strong bounce and rally to the previous highs. The old stock market adage of “sell in May and go away”, seems to be ringing true for the JSE as we approach May. The JSE (Top 40 future) is pulling back, testing a crucial support level. This back-up plan will allow Americ... ››› more
  • [30 April 2019]
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