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Gavin Mccarter

  • Buy Naspers before the smart money piles in
  • Naspers result are due on Thursday and we should see buyers push the share price higher into year end. Yesterday's trading update provided some insight into what to expect as it highlighted core earnings from continuing operations will increase between 7% and 10%. Last week Tencent released results, and while it didn't excite traders and investors, it highlighted that a maturing business c... ››› more
  • [19 November 2019]
  • Sell Vodacom today as its 3-month long rally stalls
  • Vodacom released interim results yesterday, and it isn't enough to see it push through the critical resistance level above R136.50. Headline earnings per share came in at R4.60 (half year), which is below the full year 2020 consensus expectation of R9.61. Vodacom will have to do very well in the remaining period to achieve consensus and not disappoint investors. SA reported mobile service ... ››› more
  • [12 November 2019]
  • QE infinity and SAs last chance
  • Last week we initiated a long USD/ZAR trade as we believed the market was pricing in too many positives. After the sobering news from the medium-term budget speech, it promptly lost over 60 cents. Traders who used futures would have made over 30% as our initial profit target was reached in just over a day. The Rand is strengthening on the back of Moody's just reducing the outlook from s... ››› more
  • [07 November 2019]
  • It's time to sell the Rand
  • The Rand has made a strong recovery against the major currency pairs over the past month. And faces several headwinds this week with the Mid-Term Budget Speech due tomorrow. There's also the Moody's decision and a slew of important data points from the US, Europe and the UK. These events have the potential to see the Rand lose 50c or more in the coming weeks against the USD. Look at t... ››› more
  • [29 October 2019]
  • When low cost passive investing becomes expensive
  • Many retail investors are bombarded with ways to invest through exchange traded funds (ETF), most of which passively track an index. The ETF platforms highlight how cheap they are, but in actual fact they aren't cheaper. If you have more than R80,000 in the account, its expensive. The ETF platforms charge between 0.35% and 0.65% ex VAT just for annual admin fees. That's on top of the other fees... ››› more
  • [24 October 2019]
  • Grow your portfolio with these JSE “Safe Haven” investment opportunities
  • Week after week, market commentators highlight how investors are not making positive returns in USD. The US dollar is king now, with it paying a positive yield and investors who have missed the gold rally are hording it. This has caused liquidity to be squeezed. It's increasingly likely that President Trump will use the 1934 Gold Reserve Act to sell US Dollars and buy foreign currency as a way... ››› more
  • [08 October 2019]
  • How to avoid the estate duty shock of investing offshore
  • With business confidence in SA at its lowest in twenty years. And investors losing patience waiting for the sun to rise for the “New Dawn”, we're seeing more and more people taking money offshore. While most people taking money offshore won't be aware of foreign inheritance taxes, they are creating a potential estate liability problem for their heirs. USA and UK inheritance tax can be as ... ››› more
  • [01 October 2019]
  • Bargain hunting in Bear territory: Issue 2
  • Globally, investor sentiment is at a low, investors on the JSE are no different. They are faced with the same issues and risks as global investors but with the added risks locally. It's not easy being optimistic enough to deploy additional capital but you can stack the odds in your favour by slowly deploying capital into the many JSE “bargains” that periods of sustained pessimism bring. Ba... ››› more
  • [25 September 2019]
  • Buying property at a discount and 12% dividend yield
  • The hunt for yield and aversion to risk is causing something we have never seen before. Interest rates and bond yields are falling globally and have turned negative. You can get a home loan in Denmark at an interest rate of -0.50% per year fixed for 10 years. While we are still far away from that with real rates in positive territory, investors must be tactical in deploying capital.   ... ››› more
  • [17 September 2019]
  • The tide is turning on this small-cap education stock
  • The most lucrative opportunities are found in times of maximum pessimism. Investors just need to filter through the noise for the right shares to invest in, that have potential tail winds in the months and years ahead. Small caps have lost favour with investors. Many are trading at all-time lows while growing profits steadily in these tough economic times. One such share is a little-known ... ››› more
  • [10 September 2019]
  • What should you do with your Naspers?
  • If you haven't already read about it, Naspers (NPN) plans to list its international internet assets, in a company called Prosus, on the Euronext Amsterdam exchange and the JSE on September 11.   So, you need to own Naspers on 12 September (Ex-div date) to qualify for Prosus shares or additional Naspers shares.    For a lot of investors, the biggest consideration affecting their d... ››› more
  • [03 September 2019]
  • Bargain hunting in “bear” territory
  • Following on from last week's article where I quoted Sir John Templeton as saying “tell me where there is the most pessimism and I will tell you where to invest”. That describes global equity markets now and more accurately the South African market. Most investors are bearish and pessimism is high. But that doesn't mean you should be buying every stock making 52-week lows or in bargain territo... ››› more
  • [27 August 2019]
  • Investors rank SA Junk status
  • Last week I wrote about never letting a good crisis go to waste. It's one of the most difficult things for investors to do while you're in the thick of it. You don't want to deploy capital when things look like they are going to get worse, much worse. But that is the precise time to “slowly drip” capital into the market. It's an investors primary focus to look past the noise to see opportunity... ››› more
  • [13 August 2019]
  • Never let a good crisis go to waste
  • As Winston Churchill once said “Never let a good crisis go to waste”, we believe investors should be ensuring they have enough exposure to offshore assets that will be a hedge against a “deeper crisis” and should be slowly buying depressed local assets if they have cash on hand. Most investors have been sitting on the sidelines not fully exposed to equities You can't blame local invest... ››› more
  • [06 August 2019]
  • The ZAR's Eskom induced downward spiral
  • I'm sure you have seen the headlines signaling the Rand is on a downward spiral. We highlighted the Rand being at risk of weakness when it was below R13.90 to the USD two weeks ago. It's lost almost 3% but recovering steadily. This bout of weakness is on the back of Eskom's new lifeline of R59 billion, over the next two years. After government committed R69 billion over three years earlier thi... ››› more
  • [30 July 2019]
  • We banked 71% on EOH and 6.24% on our USD/ZAR and it's time to get back in
  • EOH's share price has pulled back and our stop loss at R24 helped us protect 71% of our gains. The share price has pulled back to R20.00 and the company has indicated the forensic inquiry has identified R1.2 billion in suspicious payments. This is not a massive number and signals that the turn around in EOH will materialize over the coming months as Stephen van Coller delivers on his strategy. ... ››› more
  • [23 July 2019]
  • Why you should go long the USD/ZAR
  • The Rand has staged a stellar rally. Strengthening from above R15 against the USD to below R13.90. It came within half a cent of our R13.8550 target against the USD but the price is consolidating. It's time to bank our profits after a 6.24% gain, with gearing your gain could have been more than ten times larger. Trading the other way and going long the USD against the ZAR has good risk to rewa... ››› more
  • [16 July 2019]
  • ProTrade's proprietary market scanner
  • Our market scanner has highlighted several shares in overbought and oversold territory. Below is extracted from our weekly data table. Our model scans most of the shares in the JSE All Share Index and measures their standard deviation using our proprietary methodology. We supplement the standard deviation with fundamental and technical analysis to come up with our investment ideas. Someti... ››› more
  • [09 July 2019]
  • Gold Losses shine as Trump signals ‘Trade Truce'
  • President Trump's willingness to get around the negotiating table has sparked a risk on rally, with safe havens like Gold, Yen and the Swiss Franc pulling back. President Trump said he would hold back on new tariffs and China would buy more farm products. He also indicated the US Commerce Department could decide if Huawei should be removed off the list of banned firms and can do so without go... ››› more
  • [02 July 2019]
  • Bidcorp rally runs out of steam
  • Bidcorp's attempted breakout above the R320 per share resistance level failed, this is the third time since 2017 that Bidcorp's share price failed to move above R320. The share price has pulled back over 3% with further advances unlikely, investors should look to lock in profits as the share price is on a standard deviation of 2.4. This signals a pullback is likely, and a retracement has starte... ››› more
  • [25 June 2019]
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