Gavin Mccarter

  • Investors aren't panicking, yet
  • Investors have been banking profits and positioning their portfolios for an escalation in the “Trade Wars”. Panic and fear haven't gripped the market gauging by the increase in the Volatility Index (VIX) over the past few days but that could all change with further tit-for-tat tariff increases. Investors could generate significant returns waiting for the VIX to reach 25 before buying into ... ››› more
  • [14 May 2019]
  • Invest in the UK with protection from a “Bad” Brexit
  • The UK market has rallied over 9% year to date (the market was closed yesterday). But it remains just above a multi-year trading channel dating back to 1999. Investors and businesses don't like policy uncertainty and Brexit has created almost three years of it. The most recent revelations of secret talks and renewed focus on a people vote add to the uncertainty. We believe the UK market is ... ››› more
  • [09 May 2019]
  • Don't “Sell in May and go Away"
  • If this support level holds, we could see our market run to record highs. And the elections could be the catalyst for a strong bounce and rally to the previous highs. The old stock market adage of “sell in May and go away”, seems to be ringing true for the JSE as we approach May. The JSE (Top 40 future) is pulling back, testing a crucial support level. This back-up plan will allow Americ... ››› more
  • [30 April 2019]
  • Buy EOH - Stock market darling turned value stock
  • What an incredible fall EOH has experience in 2019. Its shares have lost over 50% in value. Today, EOH is trading at a 50% discount to its NAV even after jumping 14% yesterday. Traders who are short and investors who dumped the stock to sit on the sidelines, can't wait and risk a massive rally as its results are released this morning.   Despite being more than 90% lower from its high of R1... ››› more
  • [16 April 2019]
  • Anchor Capital preparing for lift off - again
  • In September 2014, Anchor Capital's shares closed 75% higher from the day it listed at a price of R2. The next day saw it close another 28.85% up. Investors dubbed it the “new kid on the block” as asset managers pushed it higher week after week. After six months, investors who secured the stock at R2, gained 300%. The share price defied gravity to hit a high of R18.99 prior to Nene-gate; ... ››› more
  • [09 April 2019]
  • Buy SuperGroup as it bottoms out
  • SuperGroup's share price has returned to where it was at the beginning of 2015, and has been stuck in a range between R45 and R33. It has bottomed out around R33, half year results put its NAV at just below R29 growing at 16% (CAGR) over the past four years. Earnings have increased by 9% (CAGR) and expectation is for that to continue. It's on a forward PE of just 8.5 while its five-year a... ››› more
  • [26 March 2019]
  • Bottom fishing with Wescoal
  • Wescoal's share price has pulled back all the way to levels last seen in 2016. The company recently announced a change of the guard as it appointed Reginald Demana, a Nedbank Capital resources banker, from 1 April. This follows the sudden departure of Waheed Sulaiman in January. WSL share price is also depressed as small and mid-cap stocks remain out of favour, mostly due to these companies be... ››› more
  • [20 March 2019]
  • Bottom fishing or catching a falling knife?
  • The JSE seems to be filling up with bargains, as stocks have double digit declines in hours and days. Investors just need to look at what happened with Tongaat and Aspen in the past few days. And these aren't the only ones in the past couple months, Capitec, EOH, Resilient and its related companies are still fresh memories. Very often large cap stocks with derivatives on them can react a lot m... ››› more
  • [15 March 2019]
  • Buy EOH as it bottoms out ahead of results
  • EOH has been dogged by many allegations and it's share price is down from its 2015 high of R180 to R18.11 at yesterday's close. This has resulted in EOH's share price dropping to around its net tangible asset value of R17.07 (FY2018), the NTAV should drop to round R15.00 per share in its interims due out later this month.     Investors looking for a speculative investment that cou... ››› more
  • [05 March 2019]
  • Buy Firstrand before it rallies 9.2%
  • On Friday Firstrand (JSE: FSR) released a positive trading update indicating earnings will be up over 22% on the back of its final payment for the Discover Card transaction. This R2.3 billion is a welcomed boost for FSR as its operational earnings growth has matured and grows steadily in the high single digits. Having been awarded the “Most Innovative African Bank” in 2017 and the “B... ››› more
  • [28 February 2019]
  • A guaranteed 20% return in 20 days from this JSE share
  • The headline sounds too good to be true, but it isn't. It's the result of a corporate action on an unpopular stock. Corporate actions are often boring and don't bring profit opportunities. Sometimes they result in special situations that bring almost guaranteed profits. These are mostly taken up by fast fingered traders at the coal face. They react in milliseconds to SENS announcements when a ... ››› more
  • [19 February 2019]
  • Tax year end - Do these three things to reduce your tax liability
  • With just 12 days left of the tax year and the budget speech next week, this is the time of year, that you should be evaluating your investments and retirement savings and maxing them out as much as you can. While many people know they should be saving more for a rainy day and retirement, most of us are not. Using a few tax incentives can assist you a great deal now and years down the line. ... ››› more
  • [12 February 2019]
  • Rand Rally loses steam, here's how to profit
  • The Rand has been one of the strongest EM currencies in the past few weeks, but the strength will be short lived. The Rand has been boosted by a dovish FED, an ECB trying to balance monetary policy and economic growth, and the easing of Trade War fears. But all the positives are fickle and cautious investors should be looking a few steps ahead.       Investors looking to diversify off... ››› more
  • [05 February 2019]
  • Dischem - Another bite at the cherry
  • Dischem (DCP:JSE) has pulled back considerably in the past two weeks to its May 2018 low. This isn't on any company specific news, but a broader sell off in the related retail stocks following lacklustre results. Clicks trading update for the 20 weeks to 13 Jan 2019 weren't fireworks, but highlights consistency and a demanding valuation.     Dischem’s results for FY 2019 due... ››› more
  • [31 January 2019]
  • Blue Chip ANH in Value Territory
  • AB InBev (ANH:JSE) is bottoming out above R1,000 per share after making its high a little over R2,000 in Feb 2016. Looking at the European listing, the share has only been this oversold twice before and both times a massive rally followed. The downward spiral is as a result of increasing debt, emerging markets falling out of favour, the Rand strengthening and the market pricing in a dividend c... ››› more
  • [24 January 2019]
  • Emerging markets are ready for a Bull Run
  • After a turbulent 2018, emerging markets are finding favour amongst investors looking for value with strong upside potential.   This is on the back of a few major themes that should play out:   1. A dovish FED that is expected to only hike rates once in 2019, 2. EU monetary policy that will remain accommodative, 3. Chinese stimulus to avoid a “hard landing”, 4. Glo... ››› more
  • [24 January 2019]
  • Sasol won't be in buying territory for long!
  • 2018 was a wild year for investors as almost everything except cash produced negative returns. Brent crude was down 19.5% for the year, sending Sasol back to where it started the year after staging a spectacular rally above R580. The R400 support level has proven to be a strong support level, which buyers have defended. Take a look at the chart below.   The Oil pr... ››› more
  • [08 January 2019]
  • Emerging Markets on the back foot as the Dollar strengthens
  • The rand has bucked the emerging market currency trend by strengthening 7.6% year to date. The Brazilian Real, Indian Ruppee and Turkish Lira have all weakened over 7%. The Turkish Central bank surprised the market with its 3% interest rate hike last week. We should see an increase in market and currency volatility leading into Friday's US employment data, which is expected to stay near the 1... ››› more
  • [29 May 2018]
  • Two to buy as Trump's “Truce” drives the market's up
  • As earnings season winds down, the market is taking cues from geopolitics and the weekly macro-economic data that comes out. The biggest boost the markets will receive is from America and China, agreeing to put aside international trade differences to work on a wider agreement. This is very positive and will be a tail wind for markets to rally higher. Add this to the bullish phase global marke... ››› more
  • [24 May 2018]
  • Global markets remain robust as volatility declines
  • Global markets remain robust with no clear signs of a downturn as volatility slowly declines. Investors are buying even the smallest dip, which has seen the market remain in a bullish phase this past week. On the currency front, we could see gradual rand weakness over the coming months due to the global interest rates rising.   A Federal Reserve member stated:   "Interest rates ... ››› more
  • [17 May 2018]
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