This week we follow on with two more investment themes set to perform in the new economic reality, which will evolve post Covid 19 lockdowns.
• Alcohol & Tobacco
These are seen as defensive sectors and have been known to perform better than food in times of recession. The relaxation of alcohol sales by some countries in the SADC region from the beginning of June should see s... ››› more
Central banks have vowed to do what ever it takes to ignite economic growth.
Growth is the only thing that will address the Covid-19 unemployment crisis facing the world.
That means there will be a lot of cheap and seemingly “free” money thrown at this problem.
We have several central bankers talking this week and our own monetary policy committee is due to make an interest rate an... ››› more
Investing in the stock market today with 100% downside protection sounds too good to be true.
That's because for every positive headline you read there are 4 negative ones signaling a strong pull back in the weeks and months ahead.
And the recovery, post coronavirus lockdown is expected to be slow.
But investors in the latest “risk-free” structured product need not worry what happe... ››› more
Over the long-term cash isn't the best investment, it underperforms in times of economic prosperity. And impacts portfolio returns as it barely keeps pace with inflation. But in times of increased uncertainty and a stock market sell-off like we've just experienced…
Cash is King… Its value is less volatile than riskier assets. But you should be ready to deploy the cash when the time is rig... ››› more
Headlines this morning will be dominated by the fact that WTI traded at -$40.32 a barrel before settling at just over $1.
Most retail investors will be thinking they have missed out on the trade of a lifetime when Oil trades above $20 today (when the June contract starts trading).
But the only people who could have made big money buying oil at near zero or negative are those who can take p... ››› more
Today will mark the end of the worst quarter for SA shares, having suffered the global fall out of the coronavirus.
This is after years of under performance relative to global indices.
And even though it looks like you can go out and buy anything and hold on for certain profits we could still see more selling pressure.
The SA lock down could be extended, and small business owners and ... ››› more
As the global fall out of the coronavirus accelerates, there is a big push to for social distancing that has schools and businesses closing doors.
Most are moving onto digital platforms to ensure they aren't left behind. And there are many platforms out there that can facilitate learning and businesses.
The stock market is undergoing a “Great Reset” as the JSE falls to levels last see... ››› more
Yesterday marked the worst day for global markets since the 2008 financial crisis. This is on the back of the collapse in oil prices, down over 30% at one point, as Saudi Arabia notified its clients that it will sell oil at reduced prices from 1 April 2020. This is to protect its market share while demand is low.
This is effectively the second black swan to hit the market after the corona viru... ››› more
Last week was a scary time for most investors as global markets racked up new records for the fastest 10% pullback in history. The worst weekly decline for the American indices since the 2008 financial crisis. And, the biggest single day decline for most markets as the bottom fell out of the market.
These concerns are over the impact to global growth from the shut down and restrictions in Chi... ››› more
Yesterday saw markets react decisively to the risk of COVID-19 to global growth. With most markets pulling back over 3%. This is due to an acceleration of new infections outside of China. It has hit Europe as Italy reports the 7th death and puts the town of Cologna on lock down, with others in the Lombardy region of northern Italy (a manufacturing hub) on unofficial lockdown.
The cause for ala... ››› more
The next two-and-a-bit weeks marks the end of the tax year. It's an important time for retirement and tax planning for most people and often neglected or left too late.
There are three things you must do before 28 February 2020...
THREE that could SOAR: Get my urgent penny stock plays for 2020
Read my new, urgent briefi... ››› more
As predicted, Telkom's (TKG) share price has fallen since I tipped it as a sell above R94.00 eight months ago.
It has plummeted 60% so you could have made some good money shorting this stock.
Now I believe the tide is turning on Telkom as it bounces from R30. The slide is over, and patient investors could make money buying today.
___________________________________... ››› more
Yesterday saw global stock markets retreat, sending the JSE and other emerging markets into a tailspin. This is on the back of the Coronavirus and a missile attack on the US embassy in Bagdad.
But if it wasn't for this, it would have been something else… Investor sentiment has been high, pushing major US indices to all-time highs and others including the JSE to recent highs.
... ››› more
The Rand has strengthened against the majors over the past few weeks, but it has lost momentum and can't break below a key support level.
We have our third quarter GDP numbers out at 11h30.
With trade war uncertainty that hasn't abated and the VIX (aka the fear gauge) climbing from below 12 to above 14, we should see the Rand weaken against the majors over the next week or two.
When the ... ››› more
Naspers result are due on Thursday and we should see buyers push the share price higher into year end.
Yesterday's trading update provided some insight into what to expect as it highlighted core earnings from continuing operations will increase between 7% and 10%.
Last week Tencent released results, and while it didn't excite traders and investors, it highlighted that a maturing business c... ››› more
Vodacom released interim results yesterday, and it isn't enough to see it push through the critical resistance level above R136.50.
Headline earnings per share came in at R4.60 (half year), which is below the full year 2020 consensus expectation of R9.61. Vodacom will have to do very well in the remaining period to achieve consensus and not disappoint investors.
SA reported mobile service ... ››› more
Last week we initiated a long USD/ZAR trade as we believed the market was pricing in too many positives.
After the sobering news from the medium-term budget speech, it promptly lost over 60 cents.
Traders who used futures would have made over 30% as our initial profit target was reached in just over a day.
The Rand is strengthening on the back of Moody's just reducing the outlook from s... ››› more
The Rand has made a strong recovery against the major currency pairs over the past month.
And faces several headwinds this week with the Mid-Term Budget Speech due tomorrow.
There's also the Moody's decision and a slew of important data points from the US, Europe and the UK.
These events have the potential to see the Rand lose 50c or more in the coming weeks against the USD.
Look at t... ››› more
Many retail investors are bombarded with ways to invest through exchange traded funds (ETF), most of which passively track an index.
The ETF platforms highlight how cheap they are, but in actual fact they aren't cheaper. If you have more than R80,000 in the account, its expensive. The ETF platforms charge between 0.35% and 0.65% ex VAT just for annual admin fees. That's on top of the other fees... ››› more
Week after week, market commentators highlight how investors are not making positive returns in USD. The US dollar is king now, with it paying a positive yield and investors who have missed the gold rally are hording it. This has caused liquidity to be squeezed.
It's increasingly likely that President Trump will use the 1934 Gold Reserve Act to sell US Dollars and buy foreign currency as a way... ››› more
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