The Rand has staged a stellar rally. Strengthening from above R15 against the USD to below R13.90. It came within half a cent of our R13.8550 target against the USD but the price is consolidating. It's time to bank our profits after a 6.24% gain, with gearing your gain could have been more than ten times larger.
Trading the other way and going long the USD against the ZAR has good risk to rewa... ››› more
Our market scanner has highlighted several shares in overbought and oversold territory.
Below is extracted from our weekly data table. Our model scans most of the shares in the JSE All Share Index and measures their standard deviation using our proprietary methodology. We supplement the standard deviation with fundamental and technical analysis to come up with our investment ideas.
Someti... ››› more
President Trump's willingness to get around the negotiating table has sparked a risk on rally, with safe havens like Gold, Yen and the Swiss Franc pulling back.
President Trump said he would hold back on new tariffs and China would buy more farm products. He also indicated the US Commerce Department could decide if Huawei should be removed off the list of banned firms and can do so without go... ››› more
Bidcorp's attempted breakout above the R320 per share resistance level failed, this is the third time since 2017 that Bidcorp's share price failed to move above R320.
The share price has pulled back over 3% with further advances unlikely, investors should look to lock in profits as the share price is on a standard deviation of 2.4. This signals a pullback is likely, and a retracement has starte... ››› more
This Thursday is futures closeout from 12h00 until 12h15. During this time the market is in an auction as the June derivative contracts close with a final mark to market price. Typically, closeout presents many profit opportunities as banks, hedge funds and traders manage their positions. Their aim is to maximise profits on some positions and reduce risk of loss on others.
Stocks to watch are ... ››› more
The Rand fell over 3% from its open to close last week. This is on the back of Ace Magashule's surprise (and incorrect) inclusion of changing the Reserve Bank's mandate and possible quantitative easing. When you add the bad GDP growth figures, you can see why people panicked and sold the Rand for any price they could get. Typically, this herd mentality happens at exactly the incorrect time creatin... ››› more
Telkom released annual results last week and its share price soared after a brief pull back. It has rallied over 50% year to date. Investors were expecting information on the potential property portfolio unlock. Nothing concrete has been delivered.
The CEO Sipho Maseko highlighted “Our strategy to separate our property and mast and tower portfolio to increase management focus and unloc... ››› more
Investec have introduced FTSE100 Auto Call, a five-year structured product providing an 18% return per annum if the index is positive. The product can mature (Auto Call) if the index is positive on the third, fourth and fifth anniversaries provide the index is positive. You could receive 54% after year 3, or 72% or 90%, after year 4 or 5 respectively. That's even if the index is up just 1% over an... ››› more
The JSE heavy weight Naspers, has pulled backed after it rallied over 50% from its 2018 low. The pull back is due to a global market sell-off sparked by President Trump escalating the Trade War and ‘kicking out' Huawei.
Below is a chart of Naspers, I've included the Fibonacci retracement levels, as traders will be eyeing these levels to build positions. Yesterday's close was just below the 3... ››› more
Investors have been banking profits and positioning their portfolios for an escalation in the “Trade Wars”. Panic and fear haven't gripped the market gauging by the increase in the Volatility Index (VIX) over the past few days but that could all change with further tit-for-tat tariff increases.
Investors could generate significant returns waiting for the VIX to reach 25 before buying into ... ››› more
The UK market has rallied over 9% year to date (the market was closed yesterday). But it remains just above a multi-year trading channel dating back to 1999. Investors and businesses don't like policy uncertainty and Brexit has created almost three years of it.
The most recent revelations of secret talks and renewed focus on a people vote add to the uncertainty.
We believe the UK market is ... ››› more
If this support level holds, we could see our market run to record highs. And the elections could be the catalyst for a strong bounce and rally to the previous highs.
The old stock market adage of “sell in May and go away”, seems to be ringing true for the JSE as we approach May. The JSE (Top 40 future) is pulling back, testing a crucial support level.
This back-up plan will allow Americ... ››› more
What an incredible fall EOH has experience in 2019. Its shares have lost over 50% in value. Today, EOH is trading at a 50% discount to its NAV even after jumping 14% yesterday. Traders who are short and investors who dumped the stock to sit on the sidelines, can't wait and risk a massive rally as its results are released this morning.
Despite being more than 90% lower from its high of R1... ››› more
In September 2014, Anchor Capital's shares closed 75% higher from the day it listed at a price of R2. The next day saw it close another 28.85% up. Investors dubbed it the “new kid on the block” as asset managers pushed it higher week after week.
After six months, investors who secured the stock at R2, gained 300%. The share price defied gravity to hit a high of R18.99 prior to Nene-gate; ... ››› more
SuperGroup's share price has returned to where it was at the beginning of 2015, and has been stuck in a range between R45 and R33.
It has bottomed out around R33, half year results put its NAV at just below R29 growing at 16% (CAGR) over the past four years.
Earnings have increased by 9% (CAGR) and expectation is for that to continue. It's on a forward PE of just 8.5 while its five-year a... ››› more
Wescoal's share price has pulled back all the way to levels last seen in 2016. The company recently announced a change of the guard as it appointed Reginald Demana, a Nedbank Capital resources banker, from 1 April. This follows the sudden departure of Waheed Sulaiman in January.
WSL share price is also depressed as small and mid-cap stocks remain out of favour, mostly due to these companies be... ››› more
The JSE seems to be filling up with bargains, as stocks have double digit declines in hours and days. Investors just need to look at what happened with Tongaat and Aspen in the past few days. And these aren't the only ones in the past couple months, Capitec, EOH, Resilient and its related companies are still fresh memories.
Very often large cap stocks with derivatives on them can react a lot m... ››› more
EOH has been dogged by many allegations and it's share price is down from its 2015 high of R180 to R18.11 at yesterday's close.
This has resulted in EOH's share price dropping to around its net tangible asset value of R17.07 (FY2018), the NTAV should drop to round R15.00 per share in its interims due out later this month.
Investors looking for a speculative investment that cou... ››› more
On Friday Firstrand (JSE: FSR) released a positive trading update indicating earnings will be up over 22% on the back of its final payment for the Discover Card transaction.
This R2.3 billion is a welcomed boost for FSR as its operational earnings growth has matured and grows steadily in the high single digits.
Having been awarded the “Most Innovative African Bank” in 2017 and the “B... ››› more
The headline sounds too good to be true, but it isn't. It's the result of a corporate action on an unpopular stock.
Corporate actions are often boring and don't bring profit opportunities. Sometimes they result in special situations that bring almost guaranteed profits. These are mostly taken up by fast fingered traders at the coal face. They react in milliseconds to SENS announcements when a ... ››› more
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