The JSE crashed 14.45% between 2 March 2022 and 9 May 2022.
Similarly, the Dow Jones index in the USA is down 10.74% year to date of which half of this drop has been in the past month. And the S&P 500 index is down 14.75% year to date.
We hear about inflation, war, lockdowns, supply chain issues all as contributing to this bear market…
So, what is fuelling the market's drop - and are we... ››› more
For years, many in the West have admired the ability of the Chinese Government to push through policies that would never fly in a democratic country. This has allowed them to build structures like the Three Gorges Dam.
This hydroelectric project is the world's largest power station and provides about 10% of the country's electricity. But it also required the relocation of over 1 million people.... ››› more
First world countries are suddenly dealing with higher inflation than in third world countries!
In the US for instance inflation is currently at 8.5%.
It hasn't been above 4% since 2009. And in the past 25 years it's never been above 6%.
And now inflation is the highest it's been in 40 years!
But it's not just the US that's seeing inflation speed up. The UK, Australia, Canada and much ... ››› more
Over the last few months, I've written quite a few rather bleak articles (to say the least). I've issued warning after warning about the state of the financial markets. So, if you follow my Money Morning column regularly, you may easily believe I'm a permabear. A permabear is someone who believes markets will fall no matter what the conditions on the ground look like.
Given my very negative sla... ››› more
A few weeks ago, I made a rather extreme prediction. I predicted the world would be entering a period of greater instability triggered specifically by food price increases. Normally I would wait a little longer before writing a follow up, but things are changing rapidly on the ground.
Over the last week or so, we've seen upticks in instability across much of the emerging world. Protests have er... ››› more
There are many economic signals that can accurately predict a recession.
A few weeks ago, I wrote about the “inverted yield curve”. It's a very strong predictor that economic growth will contract in the short-term.
Rapidly rising oil prices are another excellent indication that recession is hovering just over the horizon.
Historically speaking, high inflation combined with low unemp... ››› more
In dollar terms the price of corn is up 37%, and that of soybeans is up 36% in the past six months.
We've also seen wheat soar 40% in the past six months.
And this is because of the war between Russia and Ukraine as both these countries are large exporters of corn and wheat.
While this will definitely have an effect on inflation and food prices, large increases in grain prices have an eve... ››› more
US bond markets recently went into inversion. This is when short-term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rates.
And what this can mean is a recession is around the corner. In this case, markets are anticipating a recession sometime in the next 6 to 24 months.
But, even if you don't look at such a “technical” indicator, it should be clear the risk of recession is high.
T... ››› more
The next time you travel to Europe, it might be very affordable.
You may actually be able to travel to the hotel of your choice, eat at any restaurant and enjoy the tourist attractions without hurting your pocket.
I'm in Greece right now for a few months and I've got myself a little place in the heart of Athens and I must say, all furniture, appliances, TV and other accessories are super che... ››› more
When war hits, inflation soars, and the economy struggles, investors seek out gold.
This is advice many investors have heard over again.
And considering the price of gold is up from $1,791 in January this year to a high of $2,043 - and still floating around $1,950 this is pertinent advice.
But here's the thing… There are good ways to invest in gold. And then there are BAD ways to invest... ››› more
For years, some high profile, investors and economists as well as governments have denounced bitcoin.
They've called bitcoin “evil”
A useless asset…
A giant bubble…
And declared it “dead” over 400 times.
But the digital asset has persisted and converted some of its most critical sceptics…
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We're all watching as Russia and Ukraine are in the midst of a bloody war. Over 3 million people have already been uprooted from their homes, and have fled Ukraine. All this following Russian President Vladimir Putin's address to his people announcing a “special military operation” in Ukraine to “denazify” the country.
We're experiencing the uncertainty a war like this brings.
The po... ››› more
It's been a tough start for equity markets this year. Last night the Dow fell more than 600 points, which is the worst decline yet in 2022. And that's saying something. As I warned in November last year (near record highs for the tech-heavy Nasdaq) higher inflation numbers will put pressure on growth stocks.
The Nasdaq composite fell another -2.9% last night. That means the index is now down -1... ››› more
Since last year, emerging currencies have been falling.
Scrap that… CRASHING…
We aren't sure why exactly, but I think it's all down to what is happening with the US.
You see, the FED is expecting to raise their interest rates this year.
This will help dampen the inflation rate.
As this is good for the GDP and the economy, it will lead to US dollar strength and weakness among o... ››› more
In 2020 the South African economy saw an unprecedented crash because of the Covid-19 pandemic.
In dollar terms our country's GDP dropped from $351.4 billion to $301.92 billion.
That's roughly R740 billion that disappeared from our GDP overnight.
Tourism came to a halt.
Restaurants, hotels, gyms and car dealerships hit a massive slump.
Property, specifically office space became a hot... ››› more
Just sending out a note to make sure you didn't miss it.
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In December 2021 inflation in the USA rose past 7% for the first time in nearly 40 years.
In the European Union, inflation hit 5% at the same time - by far the highest it has been in 25 years. To give you an idea, the highest inflation has gone in the EU since 2010 was around 2.5%.
And there were actually times inflation was NEGATIVE.
Here in SA, we even hit a four year high.
In a rece... ››› more
A couple weeks ago, it was revealed that SA's inflation hit the highest level since 2017.
The number came in at 5.9%, but the reality is, prices for some goods and services seem to have doubled over the past year.
In response to rising inflation, SARB increased the repo rate to 4%.
The average SA consumer may not care all that much about inflation as a topic, but they sure as hell care ab... ››› more
Everything you read right now is about inflation.
It's a major global concern. And it should be your concern too.
Because it can seriously erode your wealth.
But there is a smart way to inflation-proof your portfolio today...
This relationship automatically makes commodities an effective
hedge against inflation
That’s because there is a positive relationship between... ››› more
Following a shocking 2020, we had a strong economic recovery in 2021.
The US index, S&P 500 ended 2021 up 27%. Its best three year stretch since 1999. The Dow was up 19% on the year, while the Nasdaq gained 21%. Over the last three years, the S&P 500 is up 90%.
The JSE All Share index returned 24% for the year (29% including dividends), with the Top 40 shares on the JSE growing 19% (total re... ››› more
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