Q. “Timon you were right about the delay in the voting in the USA, due to the counting of hand mail.
But now the big question is.
What can we expect with the US stock markets, with Joe Biden becoming the next American President?”
A. I did some research on the weekend. When I went to back-test the US stock markets over the last 23 election years, what I found might surprise ... ››› more
The only thing on investors' minds right now is the US election.
At the time of writing the final votes have yet to be tallied. Right now, many battleground states are still up for grabs, with Pennsylvania looking like the key to victory.
Trump has already claimed the win and approached the courts filing multiple lawsuits in most of the swing states. He's demanded a recount in Wisconsin. A... ››› more
Q. “Hi Timon, with the gemors going on in South Africa, I really want to just be able to trade overseas. Could you please tell me how I can open an offshore trading account, how much money I'll need and which brokers are the easiest to trade with?”
A. I fully understand where you’re coming from.
It’s not safe anymore to keep your money in just one place – especiall... ››› more
Q. Timon I have an issue with my strategy… I follow a simple Moving Average trading system. With the current lockdown, I have a lot more time on my hands to trade in a week.
My problem is that my system sometimes doesn't even line up one trade in a week.
Can you tell me a few tips I can use to help me increase the number of trades I take per week?
A. I understand it can be ra... ››› more
Yesterday marked the worst day for global markets since the 2008 financial crisis. This is on the back of the collapse in oil prices, down over 30% at one point, as Saudi Arabia notified its clients that it will sell oil at reduced prices from 1 April 2020. This is to protect its market share while demand is low.
This is effectively the second black swan to hit the market after the corona viru... ››› more
If you hold property stocks, or one of the big four supermarket chains you need to listen up…
A major new finding by the Competition Commission is coming into effect, and it could have far reaching implications for these companies.
Let me show you in more detail.
Is this the secret to becoming a stock market millionaire?
... ››› more
Last week we initiated a long USD/ZAR trade as we believed the market was pricing in too many positives.
After the sobering news from the medium-term budget speech, it promptly lost over 60 cents.
Traders who used futures would have made over 30% as our initial profit target was reached in just over a day.
The Rand is strengthening on the back of Moody's just reducing the outlook from s... ››› more
Over the past year we've seen a number of factors drag the world economy down.
From the sudden cut in interest rates in September, to the ongoing war with Brexit and with the US-China trade war, to the oil output being decimated by a drone attack in Saudi Arabia…
We are now seeing the aftermath and the ripple effect, unfortunately hit home…
In fact, we had an announcement last week... ››› more
After a turbulent 2018, emerging markets are finding favour amongst investors looking for value with strong upside potential.
This is on the back of a few major themes that should play out:
1. A dovish FED that is expected to only hike rates once in 2019,
2. EU monetary policy that will remain accommodative,
3. Chinese stimulus to avoid a “hard landing”,
4. Glo... ››› more
Forget about the much-anticipated Bitcoin ETF.
Forget about the “big win for bitcoin” I mentioned last week.
You see, there's even bigger news that could be a game-changer for bitcoin and cryptos.
In short, Bitcoin could be on the verge of breaking through as a mainstream currency.
And it's all thanks to a start-up company that's soon to be launched by one of the most powerful pl... ››› more
Last week, I revealed the Bitcoin ETF “dream” unfortunately hit a roadblock.
And it was all thanks to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for delaying its decision on whether to approve a Bitcoin ETF.
This prompted a “mini-crash” in the bitcoin price (and cryptos in general), which fell around 12% overnight.
But once the markets digested this negative news, something else b... ››› more
Global markets are riding a rising tide of positivity from hawkish FOMC meeting minutes, US Fed Chair Powell indicating the US economy is strong and a positive US and Mexico trade deal.
Investors shouldn't fear new record highs because historical market data indicates it's a bullish signal. When a new all-time high is achieved, there is a 90% chance of achieving a new all-time high in the four... ››› more
The rand lost 4% of its value in mere days last week.
At the same time, between 13 and 15 August the JSE lost 4% of its value.
As uncertainty at home and abroad causes this kind of volatility, there's a simple kind of investment that warrants a place in portfolios.
I'm talking about dividend paying stocks. The appeal is simple, dividend payers can provide investors with tangible returns (... ››› more
The JSE was one of the few markets that ended last week lower. The Rand strengthened on the back of China being more passive in the “Trade War”. Commodity prices also pulled back last week causing the resources sector to impact the market performance. We've given up all the recent gains and are back in buying territory.
SA equities are cheap when you compare the median P/E ratio of the All... ››› more
This week is full of event risk; the US interest rates announcement, the market expects a 25-basis point increase, with an 85% probability, US and North Korea summit, US CPI, UK unemployment, ECB committee meeting and Italian policy uncertainty.
All of these could push investors towards less risky assets in developed markets.
Short term traders should focus on Rand sensitive shares as volati... ››› more
Do you remember when you first time you got behind a steering wheel?
I was an absolute nervous wreck.
Legs shaking, heart racing and adrenaline running through every vein.
Ignition starts. And Just as I was about to drive away the revs went up, I slammed on breaks, the car jolted and then stalled.
Great start Timon!
It felt like I would never be a good driver.
A couple of less... ››› more
Global markets typically have a good run in April before the “Sell in May and Go Away” period, but the spike in volatility in February and March has shaken investors. With global markets down year to date, we should see investors buy this dip and a potential run up in April that will make up for 2018's rocky first quarter.
The below graph shows the S&P 500's average monthly return for the ... ››› more
Just a few years ago, trading offshore was an absolute nightmare.
Not only did you have to physically take your money out of the country, you also had to endure these five tedious experiences:
~ $2,500 minimum deposit
~ Endless paper work to fill in and sign
~ Limited access to instruments and control of the portfolio
~ Over a week to withdraw and deposit funds
~ Costs through the roof
... ››› more
The International Monetary Fund has increased its global growth forecast to 3.9% for 2018 on the back of US Tax cuts that will most likely stimulate growth.
Typically, global growth above 3.5% is a strong catalyst for commodity price growth and emerging markets.
SA is still in a honeymoon phase after Ramaphosa's election. The Rand strength and other positive economic results have raised th... ››› more
2016 has been a year many will quickly forget, but for the shock results of the Brexit vote and the US elections; it was a year where many cans were kicked down the road.
Global growth remained benign and potential silver-linings have yet to gain material traction because of lingering uncertainties such as the future US foreign policy, the tensions in South East Asia, lingering debt problems i... ››› more
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