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Moody's

  • Why the rand will hit R22.44 thanks to this double-whammy
  • On 24 February 2020, I sent out an article: Coronavirus + Eskom + Moody's + Chart = Rand disaster At the time the South African rand was trading at R14.20. I predicted that the USD/ZAR would move to the first target at R16.00 within a couple of weeks… This was due to the following factors at the time… • The Coronavirus was declared by the WHO as a global health emergency. ... ››› more
  • [21 April 2020]
  • Why the rand will hit R22.44 thanks to this double-whammy
  • March will be known as the worst month of all-time for the South African rand. With the ongoing lockdown, the increasing rate of COVID-19 cases, the crumbling economy, and the downgrading from Moody's - It's just been bad news after bad news for SA. And what happened last week? Well we saw the South African rand hit record lows passing through the R19.00 mark against the US dollar. ... ››› more
  • [14 April 2020]
  • COVID-19 + Junk Status + Recession fears = another 25% crash on the JSE
  • March 2020, will be known as one of the most brutal months that the JSE and the equity markets have ever seen. On 12 March, the index fell 9.51% and a further 11.98% on 16 March - two of the biggest daily drops since the 2008 Financial Crash. CEO - JSE, Leila Fourie, said in an interview about the value drop and trade volumes: “Over the past few weeks on average we've been processing... ››› more
  • [06 April 2020]
  • Don't rush in and buy just yet!
  • Today will mark the end of the worst quarter for SA shares, having suffered the global fall out of the coronavirus. This is after years of under performance relative to global indices. And even though it looks like you can go out and buy anything and hold on for certain profits we could still see more selling pressure. The SA lock down could be extended, and small business owners and ... ››› more
  • [01 April 2020]
  • Coronavirus + Eskom + Moody's + Chart = Rand disaster
  • It's been a terrible start for the rand. Last week we saw it hit R15.00, dropping it down over 6.07% for the year. According to Bloomberg, the rand was the second-worst performing currency out of the 24 emerging-market currencies world-wide. And it looks like this is only the beginning. In today's article we'll discuss the four reasons why I expect the rand to plunge to R1... ››› more
  • [24 February 2020]
  • What happens if Moody's downgrades South Africa to JUNK?!
  • Q. “Hi Timon, I read the weekly article where you expect the JSE ALSI40 to rally. My question is, if Moody's does eventually decide to downgrade South Africa to junk what would happen and when is the next grading?” A. The next possible downgrading for South Africa would happen as soon as March, if South Africa fails to come up with a plan with “Credible debt-stabilisation”.  ... ››› more
  • [13 November 2019]
  • Don't get caught in South Africa's debt death-spiral
  • Last Friday, ratings agency Moodys dropped their outlook for SA debt from stable to negative. This means within the next 6 to 24 months it's likely we'll see the last of the three major ratings agencies cut our government debt rating to junk. As an economist, I am now all but certain the downgrade will happen. SA will become a junk status borrower. ________________________________________... ››› more
  • [08 November 2019]
  • The ZAR's Eskom induced downward spiral
  • I'm sure you have seen the headlines signaling the Rand is on a downward spiral. We highlighted the Rand being at risk of weakness when it was below R13.90 to the USD two weeks ago. It's lost almost 3% but recovering steadily. This bout of weakness is on the back of Eskom's new lifeline of R59 billion, over the next two years. After government committed R69 billion over three years earlier thi... ››› more
  • [30 July 2019]
  • Thanks to Moody's, Eskom and BRICs - We can expect the banking sector to fly
  • In the last few months I've sent out a number of predictions on different resource companies. And at the end of the first quarter, we managed to bank six winning resource company trades, generating over 200% in gains. At the start of the second quarter for 2019, I have my eye on a new sector which I'm looking to trade and profit from. Thanks to Moody's, Eskom and BRICs - Here's why I e... ››› more
  • [23 April 2019]
  • ”I just took my first trade”…Now it's your turn
  • Q. "Hi Timon, thank you for showing me what to do when I get an SMS from you. I took my first trade on Thursday and I must say, it's much easier than I thought. My question to you is, when my take profit level hits, how do I make sure I'm out of my trade?"   A. When either your stop loss or your take profit level hits, there are two ways to ensure you are out of your trade.     ... ››› more
  • [10 April 2019]
  • This is a bitter pill to swallow
  • Q. “I have some Rebosis shares. The price has recently crashed from over R10 a share to around R1.62 at today's price. In your opinion is it worth buying at this level to try and average down, or is it better to sell and take the loss.”   A. This is a bitter pill to swallow but it must be said with your trading.    I personally exit any trades that are moving in the wrong dir... ››› more
  • [03 April 2019]
  • Three top risks for the rand in 2019 and how to profit
  • South Africans are at the edge of their seats, with what's going on this year. From the ongoing US-China trade war, never ending Brexit decision, South Africa going back into the dark ages, the spreading rumours that the US is about to enter a recession this year - and this is just the tip of the iceberg for 2019. The worst is yet to come. And it all starts, and ends, with the rand. To... ››› more
  • [02 April 2019]
  • Moody's believes in the Ramaphosa Rouse
  • Late Friday night Moody's released its rating for South Africa and reaffirmed its sovereign debt rating at investment grade. It even improved its outlook from negative to stable, but stated policy ineffectiveness could “… undermine confidence, growth and social cohesion, with inevitable consequences for the country’s balance sheet”.   The Monetary Policy Committee is expected... ››› more
  • [27 March 2018]
  • The rand slides through 11.30/$ after Moody's downgrade
  • Late yesterday, ratings agency Moody's cut South Africa's credit rating amidst worries over economic growth. The news sent the rand substantially weaker. Let's take a closer look at what's going on… The rand fell to levels not seen in a month The rand weakened to its worst “level in over four-weeks against the US dollar,” reports Fin24. This comes after Moody’s downgraded SA... ››› more
  • [07 November 2014]
  • South Africa's banks look safe from another credit rating downgrade… for now
  • It's just over two weeks since African Bank released a trading statement that rocked the banking sector. The knock-on effects from the bank's financial mess led the Reserve Bank to rescue the ailing lender. And most of South Africa's other banks received a nasty shock when rating agency Moody's decided to downgrade them. But investors may find solace in Standard & Poor's announcement today ... ››› more
  • [21 August 2014]
  • The rand buckles under the strain of Moody's downgrading South Africa's top four banks
  • Yesterday, the rand weakened significantly following a day of bad news. Top of the agenda for the local currency was the news that ratings agency, Moody's, had downgraded four of South Africa's biggest banks. Adding to its woes was news that consumer inflation eased slightly, putting less pressure on the central bank to hike rates at its next meeting. Over the day, the rand fell over 1%. ... ››› more
  • [21 August 2014]
  • The JSE takes a knock as BHP Billiton and Shoprite fall over 5%
  • Yesterday, the Johannesburg Stock Exchange felt the strain as one of its heavyweights tumbled. BHP Billiton announced the creation of a new company along with its results. Investors were hoping for something else. Shoprite also disappointed investors as the retailer showed slow profit growth in its results. The JSE's poor performance was in spite of a global trend higher on the markets. ... ››› more
  • [20 August 2014]
  • After downgrading Capitec, Moody's does the same to four of South Africa's biggest banks
  • Yesterday, Moody's Investor Services announced that it downgraded four of the country's biggest banks: Standard Bank, Absa, Nedbank and FirstRand. Moody's has concerns over the Reserve Bank's ability to protect creditors following what happened with African Bank a few weeks ago. Let's take a closer look at what's going on… Moody’s cut the credit ratings of Standard Bank, Absa, Nedb... ››› more
  • [20 August 2014]
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