Dear reader,
In a recent statement oil giant Shell said “oil production peaked in 2019, and that we can now expect it to decline gradually by 1 or 2% per year.”
Oil major BP has come out by itself making a similar claim. According to BP the world has reached ‘peak oil’.
BP expects oil demand to fall by AT LEAST 10% this decade and up to 50% in the next 20 ye... ››› more
Q. “Timon you mentioned in Monday's article that the two new vaccines are good for an oil price hike.
Could you tell me a few reasons why this would be the case?
A. Yes absolutely. First of all, I’ve always found oil to be one of the leading economic indicators.
And this is because oil is used in just about any industry. Especially when it comes to transport, manufacturing, p... ››› more
Pinch me.
I feel like I'm in a dream.
In the span of two weeks we've have good news overflow the markets.
We had Joe Biden win the elections. Then a few days later, two vaccines come out to end the Covid-19 pandemic.
And both local and global markets have rallied over 4% in that time.
And when I went to my charts, I saw a commodity that is ready for an 18% rally.
I'm talki... ››› more
“Timon do you believe that with the second wave of COVID-19 cases in Europe will also cause the price of Brent Crude to drop in price?”
A. Absolutely! Thank you for reminding me Joe.
In fact, it’s one of the main factors I forgot to mention in this week’s article.
In the last month, we have seen a resurgence in infections throughout Europe.
We have see... ››› more
To think, in 2011, Brent Crude was at $120 barrel. And today is barely hanging onto $40.
This was all thanks to the Corona-crisis.
In fact, we are now seeing a resurgence in Europe with new restrictions and lockdowns.
And just look at who's contracted the virus.
• President Donald Trump and the first lady
• British Prime Minister Boris Johnson
• Brazil's Jair Bolsnaro
• ... ››› more
The oil price crash, and subsequent low demand for fuel worldwide could be seen as a positive for businesses. Transport costs come down - meaning extra cash in the bank.
You'd expect the same for farmers.
But the low oil price could actually be a big negative for maize farmers the world over…
Let me explain.
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Here&... ››› more
This week we follow on with two more investment themes set to perform in the new economic reality, which will evolve post Covid 19 lockdowns.
• Alcohol & Tobacco
These are seen as defensive sectors and have been known to perform better than food in times of recession. The relaxation of alcohol sales by some countries in the SADC region from the beginning of June should see s... ››› more
You may have heard of the Butterfly Effect.
Chaos theory predicts it is possible for the flap of a butterfly's wing in China to cause a hurricane in the US. Though this sounds like fantasy, we may actually be witnessing one of the greatest “butterfly effects” in history.
A little while ago, likely in 2019, a single virus particle made a jump from bats to humans. In terms of scale, this... ››› more
On Monday, while I was doing my weekly market analysis, I saw something I've never seen before.
For the first time in history, the US WTI (West Texas Intermediate) oil prices crashed below zero.
At first, I thought this was just a glitch on my trading platform. But then, just minutes later, it was the breaking news event of the day.
When I did the research, I realised that the demand f... ››› more
Headlines this morning will be dominated by the fact that WTI traded at -$40.32 a barrel before settling at just over $1.
Most retail investors will be thinking they have missed out on the trade of a lifetime when Oil trades above $20 today (when the June contract starts trading).
But the only people who could have made big money buying oil at near zero or negative are those who can take p... ››› more
On 3 February 2020, I sent out an article:
WARNING: The deadliest threat to the JSE
At the time the JSE All Share Index was trading at 55,000…
I predicted that the index would drop to 50,405 in a couple of weeks…
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Did you miss ANOTHER triple-digit gain this last week?
Those canny Pickpocket Traders didn’t - thi... ››› more
All I can say is…
“That escalated quickly.”
On the 10th of February I sent out the article “BREAKING: Is this the next Oil Crisis?”
And last week in a matter of seconds, the oil price fell over 30%, striking right through my first target price.
This was Brent Crude's biggest one-day percentage drop since the start of the Gulf War in 1991.
And I haven't even mentio... ››› more
On 10 February 2020, Timon Rossolimos, sent out an article:
Breaking: Is this the next oil crisis?
At the time the oil price was trading at $54.49 per barrel…
Timon predicted that Brent Crude would fall to $42.48 in a couple of weeks…
This was due to the following factors…
• Major travel restrictions due to the Coronavirus meant less ... ››› more
Brent crude has had an abysmal start of the year.
As things stand, the price is hovering around $50 per barrel which is the lowest it's been in over 12 months.
A major, if not ONLY factor, that's resulted in the drop in brent crude is the Coronavirus.
As I write this, the virus has already infected more than 17,000 Chinese people and more than 350 have died. The numbers are rising on... ››› more
In this week's episode of the Trump versus the world, Turkey seems to be in the spot light.
Last week Monday, President Trump said that he was going to apply heavy duties, boost tariffs on the country's steel to 50% from 25%, authorise sanctions on Turkey and cut off a $100 billion trade deal following Ankara's invasion of north-east Syria.
This is a major concern for analysts worldwide a... ››› more
A couple of years ago Sasol announced it would enter the US market by building an ‘ethane cracker'. A massive petrochemicals plant called Lake Charles that would require it to invest nearly as much as its market cap was at the time.
The company said this was where its future lay, and the project would change the face of the company forever.
Right now however Sasol shares are at their low... ››› more
It's been like something out of a movie this month.
I'd call the movie something like "The Return of the Tanker Wars".
If you're old enough, you'll remember the 80s, when the oil tankers were targeted by US warships in the fight against Iran.
Fast forward to today and already this year, we've seen six oil tankers that have been attacked in the Gulf of Oman and now near the U.A.E.
... ››› more
Electric cars have been the only answer to reducing the world's dependence on oil and reducing carbon emissions.
China specifically has led the charge in electric car sales in an effort to reduce its smog ridden cities.
This has seen electric car sales in China surpass 1 million cars a year.
Expectations are that China alone will sell more than 1.8 million electric cars in 2019 - but t... ››› more
Early in February this year, I sent out a prediction on the Brent crude oil price and why I expected it to hit $76.60.
Right now, the oil price is on par with the prediction as, last week, it rose above the $70 mark.
But something has changed…
In fact, I expect the Brent Crude price to rise even higher than I ever imagined. This is all thanks to Opec, five countries and a promising c... ››› more
For years the Saudi's and Russia were the world's largest oil producers - with the US being a net importer of oil…
But that's changed overnight.
US oil production increased by 2 million barrels per day since 2018.
The US now produces 12 million barrels of oil per day. Russia trails the US with 10.65 million barrels per day and Saudi Arabia is third in the world, producing 10.2 millio... ››› more
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