The petrol price in South Africa is breaking the R20 a litre level.
December 2020 it sold for R14.26 a litre. That's an increase of 41.6%
Sure - the 2020 level for petrol prices was a low base. Covid reduced demand and the oil price was really low.
But the huge increases we're seeing now are hurting - and they'll definitely affect business as well.
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I believe there is one commodity that can be seen as an indicator for a recovering world economy.
Think about it…
We need oil to run just about anything nowadays.
We need oil for transport, for electricity and to run massive operations.
Last year, I was extremely pessimistic and expected the price of oil to drop to $30. Which it did… And this year, my analysi... ››› more
Ronald Reagan once said it is “as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber, and as deadly as a hitman.”
Margaret Thatcher said “inflation is the parent of unemployment and the unseen robber of those who have saved.”
The SA Reserve Bank didn't increase interest rates - as it expects inflation to stay in check. Most investors are simply ignoring the threat of inflation,... ››› more
In a recent statement oil giant Shell said “oil production peaked in 2019, and that we can now expect it to decline gradually by 1 or 2% per year.”
Oil major BP has come out by itself making a similar claim. According to BP the world has reached ‘peak oil’.
BP expects oil demand to fall by AT LEAST 10% this decade and up to 50% in the next 20 ye... ››› more
If you reading Trading Tips in 2020, you'll know I was a big seller of Brent Crude throughout the year.
In the last oil article, I made a wild prediction that Brent Crude oil was heading to $30.
If you missed it, you can catch up here…
"Why oil dropping below $40 is a major threat to the global economy"
And in just a few weeks, the price crashed down not only to... ››› more
I feel like I'm in a dream.
In the span of two weeks we've have good news overflow the markets.
We had Joe Biden win the elections. Then a few days later, two vaccines come out to end the Covid-19 pandemic.
And both local and global markets have rallied over 4% in that time.
And when I went to my charts, I saw a commodity that is ready for an 18% rally.
I'm talki... ››› more
To think, in 2011, Brent Crude was at $120 barrel. And today is barely hanging onto $40.
This was all thanks to the Corona-crisis.
In fact, we are now seeing a resurgence in Europe with new restrictions and lockdowns.
And just look at who's contracted the virus.
• President Donald Trump and the first lady
• British Prime Minister Boris Johnson
• Brazil's Jair Bolsnaro
• ... ››› more
All I can say is…
“That escalated quickly.”
On the 10th of February I sent out the article “BREAKING: Is this the next Oil Crisis?”
And last week in a matter of seconds, the oil price fell over 30%, striking right through my first target price.
This was Brent Crude's biggest one-day percentage drop since the start of the Gulf War in 1991.
And I haven't even mentio... ››› more
The most lucrative opportunities are found in times of maximum pessimism. Investors just need to filter through the noise for the right shares to invest in, that have potential tail winds in the months and years ahead.
Small caps have lost favour with investors. Many are trading at all-time lows while growing profits steadily in these tough economic times.
One such share is a little-known ... ››› more
President Trump's willingness to get around the negotiating table has sparked a risk on rally, with safe havens like Gold, Yen and the Swiss Franc pulling back.
President Trump said he would hold back on new tariffs and China would buy more farm products. He also indicated the US Commerce Department could decide if Huawei should be removed off the list of banned firms and can do so without go... ››› more
Bidcorp's attempted breakout above the R320 per share resistance level failed, this is the third time since 2017 that Bidcorp's share price failed to move above R320.
The share price has pulled back over 3% with further advances unlikely, investors should look to lock in profits as the share price is on a standard deviation of 2.4. This signals a pullback is likely, and a retracement has starte... ››› more
This Thursday is futures closeout from 12h00 until 12h15. During this time the market is in an auction as the June derivative contracts close with a final mark to market price. Typically, closeout presents many profit opportunities as banks, hedge funds and traders manage their positions. Their aim is to maximise profits on some positions and reduce risk of loss on others.
Stocks to watch are ... ››› more
The Rand fell over 3% from its open to close last week. This is on the back of Ace Magashule's surprise (and incorrect) inclusion of changing the Reserve Bank's mandate and possible quantitative easing. When you add the bad GDP growth figures, you can see why people panicked and sold the Rand for any price they could get. Typically, this herd mentality happens at exactly the incorrect time creatin... ››› more
What an incredible fall EOH has experience in 2019. Its shares have lost over 50% in value. Today, EOH is trading at a 50% discount to its NAV even after jumping 14% yesterday. Traders who are short and investors who dumped the stock to sit on the sidelines, can't wait and risk a massive rally as its results are released this morning.
Despite being more than 90% lower from its high of R1... ››› more
Early in February this year, I sent out a prediction on the Brent crude oil price and why I expected it to hit $76.60.
Right now, the oil price is on par with the prediction as, last week, it rose above the $70 mark.
But something has changed…
In fact, I expect the Brent Crude price to rise even higher than I ever imagined. This is all thanks to Opec, five countries and a promising c... ››› more
In September 2014, Anchor Capital's shares closed 75% higher from the day it listed at a price of R2. The next day saw it close another 28.85% up. Investors dubbed it the “new kid on the block” as asset managers pushed it higher week after week.
After six months, investors who secured the stock at R2, gained 300%. The share price defied gravity to hit a high of R18.99 prior to Nene-gate; ... ››› more
For years the Saudi's and Russia were the world's largest oil producers - with the US being a net importer of oil…
But that's changed overnight.
US oil production increased by 2 million barrels per day since 2018.
The US now produces 12 million barrels of oil per day. Russia trails the US with 10.65 million barrels per day and Saudi Arabia is third in the world, producing 10.2 millio... ››› more
2018 was a wild year for investors as almost everything except cash produced negative returns. Brent crude was down 19.5% for the year, sending Sasol back to where it started the year after staging a spectacular rally above R580.
The R400 support level has proven to be a strong support level, which buyers have defended.
Take a look at the chart below.
The Oil pr... ››› more
Last month, I made a prediction that Brent Crude was heading to $80. At the time it was trading at just $73…
Two weeks later, it hit the target.
While other analysts were making gloom and doom predictions, we took advantage of the rise and made 17%.
And now for the first time since 2014, the Brent Crude price has hit a new high price at $81, and I'm afraid the rise has only just begu... ››› more
On 27 June I told Money Morning readers I expected the oil price to drop.
That week saw the oil price start a slide which has been its longest downturn in three years!
As you can see, the oil price has had seven weeks of downturns following end of June. This past week has seen it halt the decline, but I don't foresee this as a sustained upturn.
Simply put - oil shouldn't trade above $70 a... ››› more
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