The rand has only just broken back below the key R14/$ level and I can tell from the client flows going through our treasury desk, many South Africans are once again keen to get money out of the country.
The USD/ZAR exchange rate was well over R15/$ just a few weeks ago.
This means, the rand has firmed up around +7.75% in the last month-and-a-half. Put another way, that's about a year's wo... ››› more
The Rand fell over 3% from its open to close last week. This is on the back of Ace Magashule's surprise (and incorrect) inclusion of changing the Reserve Bank's mandate and possible quantitative easing. When you add the bad GDP growth figures, you can see why people panicked and sold the Rand for any price they could get. Typically, this herd mentality happens at exactly the incorrect time creatin... ››› more
Investors have been banking profits and positioning their portfolios for an escalation in the “Trade Wars”. Panic and fear haven't gripped the market gauging by the increase in the Volatility Index (VIX) over the past few days but that could all change with further tit-for-tat tariff increases.
Investors could generate significant returns waiting for the VIX to reach 25 before buying into ... ››› more
Last month in the South African Investor, I wrote about the world's most-feared recession indicator, the yield curve.
More specifically, if the yield curve is signalling an upcoming recession.
Now remember, the yield curve plots the interest rates of the 10-year US Treasury note (long-term rate) and the 3-month US Treasury bill (short term rate).
When short-term i... ››› more
South Africans are at the edge of their seats, with what's going on this year.
From the ongoing US-China trade war, never ending Brexit decision, South Africa going back into the dark ages, the spreading rumours that the US is about to enter a recession this year - and this is just the tip of the iceberg for 2019.
The worst is yet to come. And it all starts, and ends, with the rand.
To... ››› more
A troubled shareholder was running next to me on the treadmill at the gym yesterday.
He looked around 55 years of age and he was gunning it (running fast).
While I was enjoying my brisk walk, I could see something was troubling him.
At first I said "slow down speed racer you're making me look like a lazy trainer." As he caught his breath, he told me how he invested in Asp... ››› more
In just one month, Brent Crude has dropped from $85 down to $65 per barrel and the media is going crazy.
Last week mainstream media headlines read:
“Brent enters bear market”
“How Brent Crude has just crashed in just six weeks”
“Will we see $40 per barrel again”
So why am I predicting Brent Crude will rise to $90... ››› more
At first glance investing seems inaccessible, confusing and sometimes even scary.
But the concept really is simple - investors (like you) buy small pieces of companies called shares.
The amount of money you make will be based on how well the company's share price does, and whether it gives you any share of the profits it makes (called dividends).
... ››› more
When the market opens today it will officially be in a bear market as the JSE extends the recent sell-off on overnight weakness offshore.
Most of this sell-off has been driven by global politics and rising interest rates in the US, with other developed markets to follow suit.
Retail investors are yet to “Panic” about the value of their portfolios.
... ››› more
Volatility provides buying opportunities, as investors panic sell and then buy after the shares inch higher.
Investors were complacent leading up to last week due to low amounts of volatility experienced in the past two months.
The sell-off caught almost everyone by surprise. But this is a normal function of the market. Over the past 90 years, the S&P 500 has had a 5% decline around every 2... ››› more
Q. “I'm looking for a downloadable charting platform to set up my charts when I trade… Which user-friendly charting platforms do you recommend and why?”
A. The best way to sign up to a trading charting platform, is by going directly to the platforms' websites.
You'll find that these charting platforms work on a yearly subscription basis, which you'll need to renew and even upgrade ea... ››› more
When the global Financial Crisis hit back in 2008, investors flocked to gold.
In fact, gold achieved the highest return out of all assets.
The same thing happened when September 9/11 happened in 2001.
My point is, gold was generally the go-to “safe-haven investment when crisis hit.
But if a major crash or recession had to happen tomorrow, do you think investors would flock to gold fo... ››› more
The rand has been buoyed by tighter monetary policy in Turkey, Russia and Argentina. Our local inflation data assisted in the strength even though the Reserve banks held rates on Thursday.
The Rand has gained over R1.30 against the Euro, USD and GBP in the past three weeks.
Investors tend to panic and run for the exit all... ››› more
Since 2015, gold has climbed higher and higher.
From $1,047 up to $1,377. If you've been a Trading Tips member since then you'll know, almost every gold article in the last three years have been strong buy predictions.
And, they've been correct 90% of the time.
Today I have a new gold prediction…
I believe the gold rally has now come to an end.
It looks like it's in big trou... ››› more
For the first time in 19 years, Africa's biggest grocer (Shoprite) reported its first annual earnings decline.
With the Listeria outbreak, the higher fuel prices, the increased VAT, the ongoing strikes, 489 armed robberies and the ever-weakening rand this decline was inevitable.
Even Chief Executive Pieter Engelbrecht mentioned “the toughest (year) that I can recall”.
In term... ››› more
After a wild two weeks, the Top40 is quickly approaching a key resistance level as the US dollar softens. This is on the back of US Jobs data that signals the Fed will hike gradually and that “Trade War” fears have subsided.
This risk on sentiment has seen investors buying the dip and remaining bullish. Last night we had the Dow up almost 1% and the S&P up 0.70%. This will provide some sup... ››› more
It's with great sadness I announce the demise of the rand!
In the last few weeks, we've seen the rand drop 19.13% from R11.50 to R13.70.
Thanks to dismal bond yields; declining GDP, increased borrowing costs and less money printing!
Of course, you are probably thinking… So what? Same old and why the drama?
Well, it's what I saw in my charts this morning that made me lose all hope... ››› more
Q. “What are the most important components I'll need to create a profitable trading strategy?”
A. This is the most important question you should be asking yourself before you start to trade.
Today, I am going to share with you the 6 key things you should be asking yourself:
Markets – What markets will you buy or sell?
Position Sizing – How much will you r... ››› more
Turn on Bloomberg and all you'll see is red…
The Dow Jones Stock Exchange crashed over 1,000 points dropping 4.15% in a day.
The S&P tanked 100 points dropping 3.75% in a day. And the Nasdaq fell 275 points dropping 3.90% in a day.
Come back to our local stock market and you'll see a big market drop.
Should you start to panic with your investments or will this pass.
Today, I'll tell... ››› more
The past two weeks have seen investors being spooked by a global selloff in stocks and bonds. This will be short lived and allows investors with fresh capital an opportunity to invest at lower levels.
The global market needs a healthy correction (around 15%) after volatility was at its lowest level in years and investor confidence in the market rising day after day was at record highs.
The... ››› more
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