This week, sit-down restaurants once again opened their doors to the public.
They opened under a cloud of restrictions. But they're open!
This must be a welcome relief to so many private restauranteurs and small business investors. Because, while they can't serve alcohol, offer a buffet and or hand you a menu (menus will have to be replaced by “no-touch” options), they can at least sta... ››› more
Many investors rush for the exit at the same time, causing a whip-saw effect in asset prices.
The Rand is particularly vulnerable to this as one of the major currencies.
Emerging market (EM) investors can use it as a proxy for less liquid EM currencies, and use it to hedge as it has the benefit of straddling trading hours in parts of Asia and America.
There are two ways for you to get ... ››› more
It's been an absolute roller coaster for the rand this year.
In January it was trading strongly at R14.50 to the US dollar.
In late April, we thought it was the end of the rand as it traded at R19.00 to the dollar.
And now, it's currently trading at R16.55.
I believe there's been two main causes for the rand's volatility namely.
Cause #1:
South Africa entering into ... ››› more
For a long while now, I've been talking about countries coming out of lockdown and how we'll see a recovery in markets.
I wasn't wrong.
The S&P 500 is back above 3 000, a gain of almost 40% from its March low.
Let me say that again, the S&P 500 has returned almost 40% in the past two months.
While I knew markets would begin to recover, even I wouldn't have predicted a recovery that... ››› more
Q. “On Tuesday I bought 100 Remgro shares and when I woke up on Wednesday to check the markets, I was holding 69 RMH (Rand Merchant Bank Holding) shares instead. Please can you explain what happened?”
A. Believe it or not, the exact same thing happened to me.
Remgro went ahead with the unbundling process in Rand Merchant Bank Holdings to its shareholders.
Unbundlin... ››› more
Everyone has favourites. A favourite food. A favourite colour. A favourite vacation spot. And, even though you'll never admit it, some people even have a favourite child.
For me, this pertains to the world of stocks too.
So, what is that one stock? The one I just have to hold no matter what anyone says?
Well, it's a company that, for the longest time, operated in the shadows of its mai... ››› more
A bear market refers to a widespread decline in asset prices of at least 20%.
We've seen stock markets fall 20% and more in recent months. The oil price fell through the floor, and unemployment is soaring.
This is not a fun time to be in, and you might be confused, panicked or just blown away.
The good news is, this is only a phase - and it will also pass. Things will turn around and l... ››› more
On 24 February 2020, I sent out an article:
Coronavirus + Eskom + Moody's + Chart = Rand disaster
At the time the South African rand was trading at R14.20.
I predicted that the USD/ZAR would move to the first target at R16.00 within a couple of weeks…
This was due to the following factors at the time…
• The Coronavirus was declared by the WHO as a global health emergency. ... ››› more
Just in: The South African Reserve Bank just lowered interest rates by another 1%, the second time in a month.
This puts the South African repo rate at a historic low!
We can write essays about what the lower interest rate means for business and consumers. But in short - lowering interest rates historically has meant one thing for gold. Its price goes up!
And as you can see in the c... ››› more
March will be known as the worst month of all-time for the South African rand.
With the ongoing lockdown, the increasing rate of COVID-19 cases, the crumbling economy, and the downgrading from Moody's - It's just been bad news after bad news for SA.
And what happened last week?
Well we saw the South African rand hit record lows passing through the R19.00 mark against the US dollar.
... ››› more
R19.34!
It's enough to make you sick.
Because that, my friend, is not the price of a loaf of bread these days.
Or even the cost of a litre of petrol.
It's how much you would have to cough up to buy a single dollar on Monday morning.
Shocked? I was too, when three days ago the ZAR touched its worst level ever!
And the awful reality is, it's not about to rally back to R14.00... ››› more
Speak to any financial advisor with half a brain and he'll tell you to go offshore.
Sure, South Africa may one day reclaim our early 2000 title of “investment darling of the emerging markets”, but it's not going to happen any time soon.
Our problems are simply too big. There's is no quick fix to Eskom, our ever-increasing sovereign debt or our 29% unemployment rate. So yes, that means ... ››› more
It's been a terrible start for the rand.
Last week we saw it hit R15.00, dropping it down over 6.07% for the year.
According to Bloomberg, the rand was the second-worst performing currency out of the 24 emerging-market currencies world-wide.
And it looks like this is only the beginning.
In today's article we'll discuss the four reasons why I expect the rand to plunge to R1... ››› more
The gold price sits at R23,044 an ounce - with its recent all time high at R23,721 per ounce.
In early 2018 gold was below R16,000 an ounce. So the shiny metal is up around 44% in 2 years!
This is being driven by the weak rand, as well as a rising dollar gold price.
Within mere months I expect we will see the rand gold price hit R26,000 levels.
... ››› more
Most people have notoriously bad memories.
Less than a month ago, the entire country was going through one of the most serious bouts of load shedding we have ever had.
Remember stage 6!!!
Yet after just a few weeks of consistent power supply, many have forgotten what it felt like and that it can return any day now!
Let's recap what happened in December.
_______________________... ››› more
If you've been following the news, you'll know that Moody's recently changed its outlook for South Africa to negative. That means our sovereign debt is one step away from ending up in the dustbin.
If that happens, it'll have far reaching consequences for SA Inc. and your locally-held savings and investments.
This isn't something you should take lightly.
You need to protect your hard-ea... ››› more
The Rand has strengthened against the majors over the past few weeks, but it has lost momentum and can't break below a key support level.
We have our third quarter GDP numbers out at 11h30.
With trade war uncertainty that hasn't abated and the VIX (aka the fear gauge) climbing from below 12 to above 14, we should see the Rand weaken against the majors over the next week or two.
When the ... ››› more
If you, or your business, receive regular payments from abroad, you have to be pretty annoyed with the rand. After all, it's one of the most volatile currencies in the world.
Which is pretty frustrating when you consider the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) forces you to convert any money you receive from abroad into rand within 30 days of you getting it - or sends your money back.
But he... ››› more
Last week we initiated a long USD/ZAR trade as we believed the market was pricing in too many positives.
After the sobering news from the medium-term budget speech, it promptly lost over 60 cents.
Traders who used futures would have made over 30% as our initial profit target was reached in just over a day.
The Rand is strengthening on the back of Moody's just reducing the outlook from s... ››› more
The Rand has made a strong recovery against the major currency pairs over the past month.
And faces several headwinds this week with the Mid-Term Budget Speech due tomorrow.
There's also the Moody's decision and a slew of important data points from the US, Europe and the UK.
These events have the potential to see the Rand lose 50c or more in the coming weeks against the USD.
Look at t... ››› more
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