US inflation came in at 7% on Wednesday.
This is so far beyond the US target rate of 2% it's terrifying.
To give you some perspective about how big a miss this is, our SA target rate is up to 6%. So, to miss it as much as the US did, our inflation rate would need to be 21%.
Up until recently, the US Fed argued they didn't have to raise interest rates to combat inflation, since it was “t... ››› more
Incredibly, it's already that time of year when brokers, banks and analysts' dust off their crystal balls and start making wild predictions on what will happen to financial markets over the next 12 months.
Now, it's important for you to remember, that no matter how fancy the title of the person making predictions, or how prestigious the institution, the future has a way of surprising us all.
... ››› more
Every year we start off with our biggest, boldest and best predictions for the coming 12 months.
How will the world around us change? What will stock markets do? And where do the biggest opportunities exist?
Five predictions to start off the year
Prediction #1 - The pandemic will end in 2022
It’s the prediction no one has been willing to make. Just as we think things are taking... ››› more
For many decades, we escaped reality through books, magazines, and movies.
In the future, we will escape via 3D-internet platforms, like VR gaming, virtual bars/clubs, and immersive shows and movies.
This future world, where the physical and the digital combine, to transform the online sphere into a more immersive, 3D experience is called the “Metaverse”.
And the metaverse is expected... ››› more
Last week's GDP data showed that South Africa's economy shrunk in the third quarter of 2021.
This follows four quarters of economic growth from pandemic lows.
It also means that another quarter of economic contraction would put the country back in recession.
So, are we heading back into recession, or will the economy turn upwards from here?
Let's have a look at what the numbers say… ... ››› more
I sometimes imagine the stock market as a constant humming. Not the hubbub hum of an open outcry trading floor, nor the electrical buzz and click of servers and machines, but the whine of millions of voices guiding billions of dollars, rand and rupees into bets on global business profits, economic scarcity and the future direction of mankind. It's the droning roar of the engine that powers the wor... ››› more
In Ernest Hemingway's 1926 novel “The Sun Also Rises” two characters are discussing bankruptcy:
“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.
“Two ways” Mike said, “gradually and then suddenly”.
The “slowly at first, and then all at once” concept is wonderfully described in Malcom Gladwell's debut book The Tipping Point. Gladwell defines this idea as “the moment of critica... ››› more
The petrol price in South Africa is breaking the R20 a litre level.
December 2020 it sold for R14.26 a litre. That's an increase of 41.6%
Sure - the 2020 level for petrol prices was a low base. Covid reduced demand and the oil price was really low.
But the huge increases we're seeing now are hurting - and they'll definitely affect business as well.
-------------------------------------------... ››› more
Q. ”This year I joined Timon's trader service. I must say I'm loving the simplicity of the emails and the high number of profits so far. In one of the recent emails, it said that you had banked a certain percentage on a trade. Please clarify a formula to calculate the gain and loss percentage in a trade?”
A. Thank you for the question Happiness and glad to have you on board.
Le... ››› more
The rand has really taken a beating this year.
In July I wrote an article, From Lockdown 4 to Jumanji - Here's why I'm selling the rand. I predicted that the rand would fall from R14.30 to R15.58.
This was due to local reasons such as the looting that took place, the slow vaccination roll-out as well as a bearish chart pattern.
And to catch you up, you... ››› more
Q. “Would you please clear something for me. There was recently a trade recommendation for Brent Crude. This is quoted in US dollars? How do you work out a 2% risk with a South African rand denominated account?”
A. Sure, I’ll share with you an easy calculation from the most recent Brent crude trade we sent out via Pickpocket Trader on 28 October 2021.
Here are the tr... ››› more
As the crypto economy expands and matures, more and more opportunities have arisen for crypto investors.
And I'm not just talking about crypto coins or crypto miners.
Today, there are numerous cryptos stocks aiming to combine the digital currency and fiat money worlds.
One such company is making huge strides in doing so…
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Will... ››› more
In the last part of 2021, we've already banked seven profitable trades.
Take a look at the last 7 trades…
• Aspen for a 28.02% gain in just 38 days.
• Anglo American for a 63.39% gain in 9 days.
• Spar for a 25% gain in 10 days.
• BHP Billiton for a 73.12% gain in 5 days.
• First Rand Bank for a 5.83% gain in 15 days.
• Spar for a -28.40% loss in 28 days.
... ››› more
US inflation just hit a 30 year high. And the US is not the only country experiencing rising prices. The EU, as well as the UK, have also seen the price of goods and services rising.
There are many reasons for this: Supply chains were disrupted by the pandemic; oil prices are high; demand has increased due to stimulus; wages are rising… the list goes on.
But the big question every inve... ››› more
This month is a major one for South Africa…
On 1 November we had the local municipal vote where we saw negative sentiment for both the rand and bonds.
In fact, not only did the the rand fall over 1.1% versus the dollar, the nation's local-currency debt also dropped 1.2% in dollar terms.
This weaker rand helped boost resources share prices, as our resources are exported in US dollars.... ››› more
The most important news is often the easiest to miss.
Why?
Because for a story to be truly important, it usually needs to be about something that is both long lasting and/or has exponential characteristics.
Most of what really affects your life is long-term exponential trends.
A terrorist attack using aeroplanes may make for a spectacular news story, but the long-term improvement ... ››› more
I have been picking structured products for several years now and rarely have I seen a product as good as the one I've found this month.
Tell me where you've ever heard of an investment that:
Has a 100% capital guarantee,
Delivers 400% of UNCAPPED index performance,
Offers a guaranteed 12% tax-rate on your final return,
Is backed by an A-rated international bank, ... ››› more
China's second largest real estate developer is going bust.
The company is $300 billion in debt. And it is struggling to pay interest when payments are becoming due.
It's easy to think that an ailing real estate developer in China is an isolated case and it won't affect you…
But the thing is, China's real estate market is worth $55 trillion. It is bigger than the US stock market, and... ››› more
Q. “I'm looking to invest in different local ETFs other than shares and indices. What are your top local ETFs you're mainly investing and trading this year when it comes to South Africa Timon?”
A. In 2021, it's important to look at the most cost effective, easy to find and highly traded ETFs when it comes to investing and trading…
Just a reminder, an ETF is an investment vehicle that... ››› more
In case you've been living under a rock, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $67,000 last week. And if you've been reading Trading Tips, this should be of no surprise…
In 2020, I predicted Bitcoin would rally from $10,000 up to $24,442.
And on 18 May, when Bitcoin was at $42,700, I made a prediction that it would rally to $73,000.
You would probably think that I would sell ... ››› more
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