Most people have notoriously bad memories.
Less than a month ago, the entire country was going through one of the most serious bouts of load shedding we have ever had.
Remember stage 6!!!
Yet after just a few weeks of consistent power supply, many have forgotten what it felt like and that it can return any day now!
Let's recap what happened in December.
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If you've been following the news, you'll know that Moody's recently changed its outlook for South Africa to negative. That means our sovereign debt is one step away from ending up in the dustbin.
If that happens, it'll have far reaching consequences for SA Inc. and your locally-held savings and investments.
This isn't something you should take lightly.
You need to protect your hard-ea... ››› more
The Rand has strengthened against the majors over the past few weeks, but it has lost momentum and can't break below a key support level.
We have our third quarter GDP numbers out at 11h30.
With trade war uncertainty that hasn't abated and the VIX (aka the fear gauge) climbing from below 12 to above 14, we should see the Rand weaken against the majors over the next week or two.
When the ... ››› more
If you, or your business, receive regular payments from abroad, you have to be pretty annoyed with the rand. After all, it's one of the most volatile currencies in the world.
Which is pretty frustrating when you consider the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) forces you to convert any money you receive from abroad into rand within 30 days of you getting it - or sends your money back.
But he... ››› more
Last week we initiated a long USD/ZAR trade as we believed the market was pricing in too many positives.
After the sobering news from the medium-term budget speech, it promptly lost over 60 cents.
Traders who used futures would have made over 30% as our initial profit target was reached in just over a day.
The Rand is strengthening on the back of Moody's just reducing the outlook from s... ››› more
The Rand has made a strong recovery against the major currency pairs over the past month.
And faces several headwinds this week with the Mid-Term Budget Speech due tomorrow.
There's also the Moody's decision and a slew of important data points from the US, Europe and the UK.
These events have the potential to see the Rand lose 50c or more in the coming weeks against the USD.
Look at t... ››› more
Imagine how much more successful you'd be if you had five chances to kick a penalty…
Five chances to sink a putt…
Five chances to nail that perfect landing…
Well that is exactly what my October Structured Product pick offers you: Five chances to make mega-profit.
And, best of all, you can customise this investment to suit your specific needs by choosing to invest in either Ra... ››› more
Right now there's one sector I'm particularly excited about on the JSE.
I recently banked a 150%+ gain from a share in less than 4 months in this sector, and I believe it has only started running.
I'm talking about Gold…
And while the shiny metal itself has delivered investors very good returns over the years, right now gold miners are in an even better position to profit.
Let me... ››› more
Following on from last week's article where I quoted Sir John Templeton as saying “tell me where there is the most pessimism and I will tell you where to invest”. That describes global equity markets now and more accurately the South African market. Most investors are bearish and pessimism is high. But that doesn't mean you should be buying every stock making 52-week lows or in bargain territo... ››› more
Last week I wrote about never letting a good crisis go to waste. It's one of the most difficult things for investors to do while you're in the thick of it. You don't want to deploy capital when things look like they are going to get worse, much worse. But that is the precise time to “slowly drip” capital into the market. It's an investors primary focus to look past the noise to see opportunity... ››› more
It's been a tough few weeks for South Africa.
It all started when finance minister, Tito Mboweni, unveiled yet another bailout for Eskom. The R59 billion taxpayer band aid then spooked international investors and prompted announcements from ratings agencies Fitch and Moody's.
Both echoed the usual concerns about slowing growth, rising government debt and the inability of our policy framewo... ››› more
I'm sure you have seen the headlines signaling the Rand is on a downward spiral. We highlighted the Rand being at risk of weakness when it was below R13.90 to the USD two weeks ago. It's lost almost 3% but recovering steadily.
This bout of weakness is on the back of Eskom's new lifeline of R59 billion, over the next two years. After government committed R69 billion over three years earlier thi... ››› more
Early on Tuesday last week, Finance Minister Tito Mboweni announced that Eskom will be receiving an additional R59 billion over the next two years, to help Eskom service its debt.
There are mixed reviews about the bill and how it will help South Africa.
Some people say this could be the light at the end of the tunnel and others say it's just another wait for an oncoming train…
As ... ››› more
EOH's share price has pulled back and our stop loss at R24 helped us protect 71% of our gains. The share price has pulled back to R20.00 and the company has indicated the forensic inquiry has identified R1.2 billion in suspicious payments.
This is not a massive number and signals that the turn around in EOH will materialize over the coming months as Stephen van Coller delivers on his strategy. ... ››› more
The rand has only just broken back below the key R14/$ level and I can tell from the client flows going through our treasury desk, many South Africans are once again keen to get money out of the country.
The USD/ZAR exchange rate was well over R15/$ just a few weeks ago.
This means, the rand has firmed up around +7.75% in the last month-and-a-half. Put another way, that's about a year's wo... ››› more
The Rand has staged a stellar rally. Strengthening from above R15 against the USD to below R13.90. It came within half a cent of our R13.8550 target against the USD but the price is consolidating. It's time to bank our profits after a 6.24% gain, with gearing your gain could have been more than ten times larger.
Trading the other way and going long the USD against the ZAR has good risk to rewa... ››› more
Gold's been a form of money, an investment and a store of value for almost as long as modern day man has walked the earth.
Some argue gold is a barbaric relic that no longer holds the monetary qualities of the past. They say paper currency, or electronic currencies such as Bitcoin, are the assets of choice.
But the fact remains that gold has been a very stable appreciating asset for centur... ››› more
The G20 summit in Osaka, Japan has just finished.
Who would have thought this two-day conference could have such an impact on our stocks, economy and even our currency.
And even the bullish sentiment towards the world markets and the US dollar, has left South Africa in a troubled state for the rand for rest of 2019.
Today I'm going to discuss two reasons why I expect the rand to we... ››› more
The Rand fell over 3% from its open to close last week. This is on the back of Ace Magashule's surprise (and incorrect) inclusion of changing the Reserve Bank's mandate and possible quantitative easing. When you add the bad GDP growth figures, you can see why people panicked and sold the Rand for any price they could get. Typically, this herd mentality happens at exactly the incorrect time creatin... ››› more
South Africans are at the edge of their seats, with what's going on this year.
From the ongoing US-China trade war, never ending Brexit decision, South Africa going back into the dark ages, the spreading rumours that the US is about to enter a recession this year - and this is just the tip of the iceberg for 2019.
The worst is yet to come. And it all starts, and ends, with the rand.
To... ››› more
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