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Recession

  • Is the bear market nearing its end?
  • The JSE crashed 14.45% between 2 March 2022 and 9 May 2022. Similarly, the Dow Jones index in the USA is down 10.74% year to date of which half of this drop has been in the past month. And the S&P 500 index is down 14.75% year to date. We hear about inflation, war, lockdowns, supply chain issues all as contributing to this bear market… So, what is fuelling the market's drop - and are we... ››› more
  • [19 May 2022]
  • How to slow down your losses in a market crash
  • It seems that uncertain times are ahead of us. On the one hand we have the main stock markets crashing to new yearly lows. Since March 2022: The JSE All Share Index is down 9.6% The SP500 has crashed over 14.6% The Nasdaq has dropped over 20% Also gold is down over 10% and some of the main crypto's like Bitcoin and Ethereum are down over 50%. Some believe we are entering into a ... ››› more
  • [19 May 2022]
  • Should you be adding protection to your portfolio?
  • There are many economic signals that can accurately predict a recession. A few weeks ago, I wrote about the “inverted yield curve”. It's a very strong predictor that economic growth will contract in the short-term. Rapidly rising oil prices are another excellent indication that recession is hovering just over the horizon. Historically speaking, high inflation combined with low unemp... ››› more
  • [14 April 2022]
  • Should you be afraid of the looming recession? And what to do about it…
  • US bond markets recently went into inversion. This is when short-term interest rates are higher than long-term interest rates. And what this can mean is a recession is around the corner. In this case, markets are anticipating a recession sometime in the next 6 to 24 months. But, even if you don't look at such a “technical” indicator, it should be clear the risk of recession is high. T... ››› more
  • [04 April 2022]
  • When will the SA economy recover from the pandemic crash?
  • In 2020 the South African economy saw an unprecedented crash because of the Covid-19 pandemic. In dollar terms our country's GDP dropped from $351.4 billion to $301.92 billion. That's roughly R740 billion that disappeared from our GDP overnight. Tourism came to a halt. Restaurants, hotels, gyms and car dealerships hit a massive slump. Property, specifically office space became a hot... ››› more
  • [17 February 2022]
  • Is South Africa heading for a recession again?
  • Last week's GDP data showed that South Africa's economy shrunk in the third quarter of 2021. This follows four quarters of economic growth from pandemic lows. It also means that another quarter of economic contraction would put the country back in recession. So, are we heading back into recession, or will the economy turn upwards from here? Let's have a look at what the numbers say… ... ››› more
  • [15 December 2021]
  • Will the Evergrande crisis crash commodity markets worldwide?
  • China's second largest real estate developer is going bust. The company is $300 billion in debt. And it is struggling to pay interest when payments are becoming due. It's easy to think that an ailing real estate developer in China is an isolated case and it won't affect you… But the thing is, China's real estate market is worth $55 trillion. It is bigger than the US stock market, and... ››› more
  • [04 November 2021]
  • Why I'm investing my cash Down Under…
  • It may come as a surprise to many South Africans, but Australia has one of the strongest economies on the planet. It's the 12th largest economy in the world with an unemployment rate below 5%. It also has one of the highest median incomes. But perhaps the most notable thing about the Australian economy is its stability. Australia holds the record for the longest uninterrupted period of gro... ››› more
  • [27 September 2021]
  • Your trading questions answered…
  • “In the last short AUD/USD Forex trade Pickpocket Trader sent out, how do I calculate how many pips I can bank if the trade goes in my favour?”   A. When it comes to the AUD/USD (Australian dollar versus the US dollar) the magic number for calculating pips is…   10,000   I’ll get back to this in a second.   First let’s start with the trade specifics: ... ››› more
  • [22 July 2021]
  • 6 Types of cryptocurrencies you might not know
  • Q. “I've started reading Sam Volkering's Crypto-Revolution book. It mentions a couple of digital coins, which got me thinking. Are all cryptocurrencies the same or are they broken up into different categories?”     A. Each cryptocurrency has its own group of features, benefits and functions. Some are used to pay for goods & services while others are used for investment purposes i.... ››› more
  • [15 July 2021]
  • What is the state of SA's economic recovery right now?
  • It's a year since 2020's hard lockdown ended. We're back in level 4 today. But life has changed a lot. We've adapted to the pandemic and its effects on our lives and businesses. So, what's the state of the South African economy today, and how does it affect your investments? ________________________________________   How to Grow a Multi-Million Rand Retirement   ... ››› more
  • [08 July 2021]
  • How to calculate your CFD position size when trading Brent Crude
  • “I've recently signed up to Pickpocket Trader and wanted to ask a question. In the Welcome Guide you suggest, you never risk more than 2% per trade. However, when we are entering into a number of trades we are risking a larger amount with our portfolio. My question is, what is the maximum number of open trades I should have in my portfolio at any one time?”   A. Whether you... ››› more
  • [08 July 2021]
  • Is this Nobel Prize-Winning Economist Wrong about Bitcoin?
  • When crypto crashes, something interesting happens… An army of naysayers rush from out of the woodwork with the usual “I told you so”. And I'm not just talking about people on social media, or even friends. But also professors of economics and fund managers! Even this Nobel prize-winning economist had a go… ________________________________________   Final reminder... ››› more
  • [02 June 2021]
  • Recession, what recession - these shares are set to rocket in 2021
  • Following last year's lockdowns, and the protracted economic pressure on businesses due to the Covid-19 pandemic - South Africa's economy is in recession. Unemployment is up. And there's a lot of suffering around. But with every crisis comes opportunity… And for astute stock pickers the opportunity has never been better…   Why, just yesterday one of my favourite stocks fo... ››› more
  • [11 February 2021]
  • These penny stocks are running - don't ignore this opportunity
  • Between May 2015 and May 2018, the JSE Small Cap Index went nowhere. And between May 2018 and May 2020 it dropped 44.68%. Since then however the Small Cap Index is up 29%. That's a huge rally in just six months. But here's the thing. It's not over yet. The small companies in this index aren't even back to the levels they traded, at the start of 2020. Never mind their 2018 highs… ... ››› more
  • [15 December 2020]
  • The BIG Story Investors Missed During the US Election
  • Last week was crazy for all sorts of reasons… Bitcoin hit $16,000 - the highest level since 2018. The JSE rallied over 7%. Covid-19 cases spiked in the US and Europe forcing new lockdown measures. However, the main focus on everybody's mind was the highly anticipated US elections on Tuesday. Although the election may still be contested (due to Trump's legal challenges), there... ››› more
  • [17 November 2020]
  • Think a pandemic and recession can stop the tech market's growth? Think again…
  • The US and global economies may have experienced their single-worst quarter in modern history… Tech stocks may have been battered again… But there's a growing optimism in corporate America - especially in tech. The recent big acquisition announcements in the industry prove this…   ________________________________________   URGENT:   5 Must-Watch Stocks f... ››› more
  • [29 September 2020]
  • Why SA's 51% GDP drop is already irrelevant news
  • On 8 September South Africa's GDP figures for the second quarter of 2020 was released. Our economy shrank by 51% annualised in the three months between April and June 2020. This has put us into the longest recession in the past 28 years. Sectors like mining fell 73.1%, manufacturing fell 74.9% and construction shrank by 76.6%. This is bad. But even though it was just released, i... ››› more
  • [10 September 2020]
  • This one indicator can tell you exactly what's happening in the economy
  • There are hundreds, if not thousands of economic indicators investors like us can look at to gauge how the economy is doing. Employment figures, GDP Growth, CPI, the Trade Balance, these are just a couple of the well-known ones. There are more obscure ones, like the Buttered Popcorn index, the R-word index or the Coupon Redemption index. But you don't need to know all of these. In fact, there'... ››› more
  • [27 August 2020]
  • Recession means these investments are screaming "Buy!"
  • SA's in a recession. The first quarter of 2020 saw a 2% decline in GDP. The SA Reserve Bank expects the second quarter to show a whopping 32.6% decline in GDP. This is a full blown recession, and to try and cushion the blow we're now seeing the lowest interest rates in SA's history. The prime interest rate is at a mere 7.25% compared to 10% at the end of 2019. That means a repayment on a R... ››› more
  • [15 July 2020]
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