The US-China trade war just might be the catalyst that will send America into its next great recession.
But I don't worry about that because there is always a profit opportunity that will follow…
In fact, there is one indicator that shows a major 20% crash for the S&P 500 is likely, thanks to this impending recession.
Let me explain why the S&P will fall...
Th... ››› more
Last week the Repo rate jumped more than 400%.
Now, I'm not talking about the South African rate which is set by the South African Reserve Bank.
I'm talking about the “real Repo rate”. The US one, which affects over trillions of dollars' worth of transfers each day.
This rate, which is normally just over 2% spiked up to 10% last Tuesday (17 of September) as global lending markets s... ››› more
Recent poll numbers show that President Trump has lost some serious favour with his core constituency.
I can't say I'm surprised.
The trade war has hit American farmers hard. With the Chinese increasing tariffs on US agricultural goods, Chinese customers are no longer buying them.
And that means that Trump needs to act - and fast - if he wants any chances at securing a second term in t... ››› more
The latest release from StatsSA showed that South Africa's economy grew 3.1% for the second quarter of 2019.
This was better than the 2.5% expected by most economists, and it's a good sign for South African's who were worried about recession hitting.
Unfortunately, this growth doesn't necessarily mean our economy is growing again…
With first quarter GDP shrinking 3.2%, 3.1% growth do... ››› more
Markets have been incredibly skittish over the last week.
And, while there are many reasons for concern, one of the main issues driving share prices lower is fear over the “inverted yield curve”.
If you skim the financial news, you'll see headlines like:
“Yield curve inversion hammers US small banks”
“Bond market yield curve inverts, signalling Fed may be too slow to cut... ››› more
Last month in the South African Investor, I wrote about the world's most-feared recession indicator, the yield curve.
More specifically, if the yield curve is signalling an upcoming recession.
Now remember, the yield curve plots the interest rates of the 10-year US Treasury note (long-term rate) and the 3-month US Treasury bill (short term rate).
When short-term i... ››› more
South African stocks ended 2018 as the worst year since 2008.
The FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index ended the year down 11%, its worst performance since 2008. But this was still better than the emerging market average of -17%...
It's fair to say that 2018 was a torrid year for investors especially considering it started very promising with SA's new president replacing Zuma…
But a strin... ››› more
At 11:30 on 4 December 2018 Stats SA announced that South Africa is out of its recession.
GDP Growth for the third quarter came in at 2.2%, after a 2.6% decline in the first quarter and a 0.4% decline in the second quarter of 2018.
Editor's Note: This is your FINAL chance to be a part of the biggest "bonus" we'... ››› more
Car sales are crashing.
Since 2014 they've been in a straight downtrend.
In fact, the latest figures from July 2016 show a drop of 17% (9,222 less vehicles) in vehicles sold compared to July 2015.
-------------------- Advertisement --------------------
Discover the explosive profit secret that could see you banking gains of 200%, 300% or even 500% in as little as 2 years
... ››› more
There's a scary word floating around the investment world right now.
It's hanging over your portfolio like a black cloud. It's threatening your income, your investments and your financial future.
The frightening thing is many investors don't even know that their money is in danger. They're ambling along blind to the fact that they're about to lose a large portion of their investments.
... ››› more
So far this year, you've heard the word recession a lot. It's a real threat to the economy right now.
The third quarter of 2015 saw 0.7% gross domestic product (GDP) growth - the fourth quarter saw 0.6% GDP growth. Results of the first quarter of 2016 shows the economy contracted 1.2%.
Economists expected the economy to contract only 0.1%, which leads me to believe that nobody really knows... ››› more
You already know that rumours of a recession are circulating around the investment markets.
2016 has been a tough year for the South African economy and the hard times don't look like they're going to stop any time soon.
Statistics South Africa shows that the economy is already down 1.2% for the year. We're in the middle of a drought and the price of food, electricity and water is steadily... ››› more
Even though South Africa managed to dodge the downgrade bullet last week, the risk of recession, higher interest rates and a lack of foreign funding still plagues the South African banking industry.
But larger fund managers like PSG Asset Management have recently been adding banks to their portfolios. Surely this is a mistake under the current challenging market environment.
Well, let's ta... ››› more
Regular contributor to FSP Invest's South African Investor publication, Dawie Roodt, recently reported that he believes South Africa is already in recession.
As we know, Roodt doesn't make any statement lightly. He is usually armed with facts and figures before he makes a statement like this.
This begs the question, did South Africa slip into a recession and nobody noticed?
Let's take ... ››› more
If you've been reading the news from FSPInvest.co.za over the past few weeks, I think you understand how important it is to add a certain level of protection to your investment portfolio right now.
There's one precious metal that's proved itself as a protective asset over and over again. Of course, the metal Joshua is talking about is gold.
He says, “In the 1970s and 1980s were marked by... ››› more
“The rand could hit R60 to the dollar by 2019: Chris Hart” - Business Tech
“Chris Hart: Nothing can prevent SA's slide to junk” - Fin24
I spoke to Chris about his recession and junk status predictions at the South African Investor member meeting on 24 May 2016. I asked him if he was misquoted in the media. However, he was adamant that he is right about these predictions.
One of the... ››› more
The situation is more serious than we thought...
As you'll see in a moment, it's become clear that South Africa is headed for a recession.
SA government economic policy has been doing very little to improve the state of our economy and now, the South African economy, consumers and investors are paying for the sins of our decision makers.
But all is not lost...
Due to the severity of... ››› more
On Tuesday, the World Bank announced it cut South Africa's economic growth forecast to 0.8% in 2016. Followed by the words, “The economy is flirting with stagnation if not recession”.
What's more is, the World Bank's economic outlook for South Africa is in line with the IMF's - which estimates economic growth rate to reach 0.7%.
The bottom line is your investments are at risk.
So, if ... ››› more
1994, apartheid ended and democracy was born. It was the beginning of a bright future for South Africa.
Over two decades of freedom, South Africa worked hard to revitalise the declining economy left by apartheid.
Between 1994 and 2013, the South African economy experienced positive growth in every quarter except for 2 of the 78 quarters. In both instances where the South African economy expe... ››› more
Today saw the release of the RMB/BER business confidence index data for the third quarter of this year.
The data showed that the index is now sitting at levels not seen since 2011.
So what's putting pressure on the index?
Let's take a closer look…
Business confidence dips again
The business confidence index (BCI), which the Bureau for Economic Research conducts and Rand Merchan... ››› more
Disclaimer Note that FSP Invest, a division of Fleet Street Publications (Pty) Ltd, is a research house and not a registered broker, financial advisor or financial service provider. Our editors and customer services teams also do not give personal investment advice. The advice in this website is general advice only and may not be appropriate to your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, so before investing or if in any doubt about your personal situation, you should seek professional advice from a stockbroker or independent financial adviser authorised by the Financial Services Board.
We research our recommendations and articles thoroughly, but disclaim all liability for any inaccuracies or omissions found in this publication.
Remember: Never invest more than you can afford to spare and that the value of any investment, and the income derived from it, can go down as well as up. The past is not necessarily a guide to future performance.
Editors or contributors may have an interest in investments commented on in this newsletter. However they have signed restraints to prevent the abuse of their position as contributors to this publication.